AGE AND ENLIGHTENMENT

The world's population is aging rapidly. In twenty years, one billion of the earth's inhabitants will be 65 years or older. In 40 years (by 2050), four-hundred million people will be over 80 years old. A new book, "Shock of Gray" by author Ted Fishman argues that we have been poorly prepared for the aging of the world's population, and how it will pit young against old; child against parent; worker against boss; companies against rivals, and nations against nations.

Fishman argues that as the ratio of the old to the young grows ever larger, global aging is reaching a critical stage. For the first time in known history the number of people of age 50 will be greater that those under age 18. He says no one has yet grasped the full massive effects this will have on economies, jobs and families.

I was reminded this week of the divergent effects in a couple of announcements from the Mayor of Ottawa Jim Watson, who incidentally turns 50 years old this week. The Mayor wore a helmet and a white tee-shirt on Sunday as he launched Ontario's first fully segregated bicycle lane along the length of Ottawa's Laurier Avenue. Cycling is an important form of recreation and Ottawa has close to 7000 kilometers of bike lanes, paved-shoulders and multi-use pathways. But only 2% of residents regularly rely on bicycles for commuting to work, which is the main mission of the Laurier Avenue initiative.

In business attire two days later, on Tuesday: Citing increasing mobility problems amongst the aged, Mayor Watson retired the last of Ottawa's "high-floor" buses. The city's one-thousand transit vehicles are now 100% so called "kneeling buses," capable of allowing people with mobility problems to roll-on and roll-off. Mayor Watson claims that is a first for any Canadian city. Therein the divergent problems of our modern urban environment. Cities were designed for the young, and we continue to develop and build infrastructure for that purpose. At the same time and all the while, it is the aging "boomers" who are putting the strain on our modern cities. - People are getting old fast, and we're doing it in communities designed for the sprightly.

The size of the aging boom is quite simply staggering. Every day for the next several decades, thousands of baby boomers will turn 65. That is in addition to the oldest-old, the 85-to-90 something, whose numbers have already grown by one-third in the last decade with no signs of slowing. The "New York Times" recently described the phenomenon as a..."silver tsunami (that) will challenge a youth oriented society." Since demographers have been warning about the phenomenon for years, it is shocking how far behind we are. And when any planning and forethought is given to the problem it's almost always viewed as a health issue - Preparing for the coming wave of Alzheimer's / Or as a political liability - When will the social safety nets collapse under the weight?

Cities and suburbs were designed for younger people, full of stairs, cars and now increasingly (it seems) bike lanes. The problem is that as these become more difficult to navigate older people retreat. As the population growth tilts to the majority of people over 50 years old or more, the challenge will be to keep them from retreating by adapting age friendly solutions to modern planning. It seems that we still have some distance to travel along the path...and not one of us is getting any younger.

MONDO CANE (A dog's world)

CLEAR-UP THE MESSAGE - Back in the fall of 2008 when Barack Obama won the American Presidential election, the kids got a dog - Named 'Bo' (www.obama-dog.com). Back here, last month after a third try, when Stephen Harper won a clear majority in Parliament; the kids got a cat - Named 'Stanley'. I may need help sorting-out what this says about us.

THE POO-POO THAT YOU DOO-DOO - Spring's arrival in Canada's heavy populated southern regions is generally signaled by the return of obnoxious fumes and odors emitted by the thawing remains of five to seven months of dog droppings. They've been left to freeze to the snow and ice either through carelessness and/or (most likely) by semi-comatose frost bitten pet owners somewhat too anxious to return to the artificial warmth of their own indoors. As the globe's warming melts back the perma-frost of the Arctic tundra perhaps we should fear the stench awaiting from the eons of archaeological droppings which await there.

SNIFF YOUR OWN DAMN BUTT - In the USA, Bloomberg News reports that a dog trained to sniff-out colorectal cancer was almost as accurate as a colonoscopy. The un-named specially trained Labrador-Retriever (no doubt to protect it's identity) was 95% accurate as a colonoscopy when smelling breath samples; and 98% correct with stool samples. Okay! Enough about 'poo' - Still there may be something positive to be said about avoiding an invasive, humiliating and miserable exam where the "sun don't shine".

SCENTS ABILITY - Honest, I'm not making this up. There is a company called "Scents Ability" in Ottawa that hires-out a pooch, this one named "Buck" (doubtless one mean sucker) to sniff-out marijuana; heroin; methamphetamine; and cocaine. At $125 a pop; it's for the parent who has everything except trust in their teen aged kid and what they may hide in their jeans or bedroom. Has the world gone mad? Recent court decisions in Ontario have banned no-warrant searches by police dogs on school premises. Now the publicly funded school board can just call-in this nose for hire instead. Honestly, I'd rather my tax dollars be spent on education. Let's see if any of this stands-up in Court.

WATER WARS

A nearby neighbour here in central Florida was perplexed by my response to a suggestion water from the Great Lakes would resolve drought issues along the American south.

He thought building a pipeline pumping water from the lakes to the parched south would be a great American economic stimulus project which, in addition to creating thousands of jobs, would eventually alleviate environmental concerns about America's water shortages. He'd just never considered that Canada, which shares the Great Lakes with the United States, might want to have a say in the matter.

Lost amongst the hoopla of the Parliamentary debate in Ottawa this week, there's been a three-day conference in Toronto that kicked-off "World Water Day" on Tuesday. There is real growing potential for violent conflict to erupt over fresh water as the global population grows amidst a backdrop of climate change and over-population. And, the Great Lakes represent as much as a quarter of all of the world's surface fresh water, and 95% of the entire North American supply.

The three day conference held at the prestigious Munk School of Global Affairs of the University of Toronto, has been looking at the prospect of future wars being fought over water. The planet's population will top 9-Billion people by mid-century. Combined with climate change caused by global warming, and the growing impact of natural disasters they add-up to what one expert described as a "hydro-climatic bomb" which has already started to tick. A very recent case in point - Tokyo's tap water has been deemed unsafe for infants because of radio-active emissions from those crippled nuclear reactors which are several hundred miles from the city.

As Canadians edge ever closer to a spring Federal Election, the former Prime-Minister Jean Chretien, is unlikely to get much political support for proposing that we should not be afraid of a national debate about exporting some of our vast water resources. Mr. Chretien told the Toronto conference he believes a new national discussion is needed. During Mr. Chretien's term as Prime Minister in the 1990's intense public backlash derailed plans at both ends of the country (in British-Columbia and in Newfoundland) as well as Ontario to export fresh water to the United States and by tanker elsewhere overseas; as we do oil and natural gas.

Be that as it may, Mr. Chretien's suggestion was swiftly rebuked by the Council of Canadians. The 1985 creation of Alberta publisher Mel Hurtig and author Pierre Berton, the "council" has substantially expanded its mandate since Ottawa activist Maude Barlow became the national chairperson. Ms Barlow is the author of: "Blue Covenant: The Global Water Crisis and the Coming Battle for the Rights of Water". Ms Barlow says it's disconcerting that the former Prime Minister is opening the door to a water-trade debate. She told the "Globe and Mail" the country would lose control of the resource if it begins providing it to customers south of the border and beyond. Five years ago the Great Lakes Commission, a partnership of the US States and Canadian Provinces which border the lakes, estimated that communities around the basin of the Great Lakes already were pumping 850-Billion gallons of water out of the system every day. That free flow of fresh water is unlikely to have diminished in subsequent years.

Research presented at the Toronto conference suggests that 25% or more of the world's water(related)conflicts over the past 5000 years have occurred in the 11 years since the start of the 21st Century. That's likely just the tip of the (melting) iceberg. R.W. Stanford, a Canadian with the "United Nations International Water For Life Decade" says the global water situation is changing so rapidly that it may soon no longer resemble anything that's existed on the planet before.

Humans of the future may adapt to life without the benefits of oil, natural gas and gasoline. We can't survive without fresh water. When it starts to run out. That is when things will get really ugly.

PREPPED FOR ARMAGEDDON!

At the apogee of the Y2K frenzy exactly ten years ago, many North Americans (perhaps elsewhere as well) prepared for the chaos that would ensue with the arrival of the 21st Century a few seconds past midnight on December 31, 1999.

Now, the world wide hysteria leading to the arrival of the new millennium sounds somewhat trite and ridiculous viewed through the prism of the last decade. No one could have anticipated that the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 would so focus the world's attention on an altogether overriding series of concerns, panic and paranoia. Today some might argue with conviction that the worldwide economic crisis which began with the collapse of millions of highly leveraged home mortgages in the United-States in 2008 can be traced back to that country's reaction to the attacks sparked by radical Muslim extremists on New York City and elsewhere.

Whether its the Y2K panics and/or the post September 11 hysteria, for some unclear reason there has existed amongst our cousins south of the 49th parallel a fringe element of survivalists who have been preparing for the disruption of social or political order and the general collapse of society and widespread world chaos. Perhaps in fact from time to time, even ready to kick start their own version of Armageddon - Timothy McVeigh, a U.S. Army Veteran executed for the Oklahoma City bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in 1995, amongst the more notorious.

Well: With economic chaos looming from America's massive $14-Trillion debt and its out of control spending; and the forecast of the true "Believers" in the abrupt end of our world foreseen in the 5000 year-old Mayan civilization calendar just before Christmas 2012...They're back:



...This time, "Survivalism" has gone mainstream: I am not making this up! Just in time for the holiday season Cotsco is selling everything needed to serve a feast after "The End"!

I have little need for 5 gallon jars of "Cheez-Whiz", and/or barrel-sized containers of dill pickles. Some years ago I gave-up my Costco membership and I am unlikely to reconsider. But! - Doubtless a sight to behold: The "Shelf Reliance Thrive" now in Costco stores in the United States features more than 5000 servings of freeze-dried or dehydrated rice, winter wheat, green peas, diced onions, sweet corn, sliced apples, raspberries, Lima beans and elbow macaroni with a guaranteed shelf life of 30 years. And there's more; including 30 litres of imitation bacon, beef and chicken: Something the retailer describes as textured vegetable protein apparently "consistent with real meat." Yum...

Allan Abel, who is a Canadian living in Washington, reported recently in an American syndicated publication that the products are marketed to our cousins in America as..."everything you'll need if the world goes to heck in a hand basket."

Major retailers such as Costco are just cashing into the prevailing paranoia, catering to perceptions over our "final days." It wasn't that long ago that in a "blog" post I wrote of the Illinois based promoters of "survival seeds" which were then being shilled by TV Evangelist Jim Bakker. Now you may add neo-con Fox News mouthpiece Glenn Beck amongst the proponents..."A desperate lower class demanding handouts. A rapidly diminishing middle class crippled by police state bureaucracy. An aloof, ruling elite that has introduced us to an emerging totalitarianism which seeks control over every aspect of our lives...if you don't have the ability to grow your own food next year, your life may be in danger."

Never mind that (apparently) no one has ever wondered just how the heck they're going to cook all those red beans, grind the wheat, or know how to make bread over a campfire. Back to the frenzy on over at Costco; as America's Thanksgiving shopping "black" Friday gets set to beckon: For $149.99 (USD) you can get the "Food For Health Extreme Emergency Preparedness Kit," including 25 servings of Western Stew; 25 servings of Potato Soup; 20 servings of Oatmeal; a water filtration system; a crank operated flashlight/Radio/Cellphone charger; a survival knife; emergency blankets; Safety Masks; duct tape; toilet paper. Everything, Costco claims, for up to 4 people to survive in the event of an earthquake, pandemic, wildfire or displacement emergency.

I wish (only) that I was making this up. Fortunately I am comforted knowing that Hamilton born comedian Steve Smith, a.k.a. "Red Green," would consider this amongst his proudest achievements.

THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH ISN'T IN A PRESCRIPTION FOR LIPITOR

I pick on the cholesterol reducer "Lipitor" only because it's widely advertised and hugely prescribed. There are thousands of other examples. But here in Ontario; Lipitor accounts for the single largest expense of the annual $3.5 billion Drug Benefit Program for residents over the age of 65.

On July first, the Ontario government is wiping-out a professional allowance (Read: Promotional) fee totalling $750 million per year paid by the drug manufacturers to pharmacists. The government claims the drug companies have been tacking-on the $ 3/4 billion fee to the cost of the drugs the pharmacists then sell back to the province.

One example cited is the oral Diabetes medication "Metformin" sold in Ontario for $0.10 to $0.15 a pill. In several American jurisdictions it's just given-away to diabetic patients as a loss leader on the sale of more testing supplies (monitors, strips etc) for the disease.

In the United-States, an in-depth investigation published by the respected Associated Press, caught my attention recently. It concludes that..."too much medical treatment is making many Americans sicker." Over treatment won't make people healthier, it may make them sicker. The Associated Press review of hundreds of pages of studies and interviews with dozens of specialists concludes that anywhere from one-fifth to one-third of medical tests and treatments are unnecessary.

It's a concept that our technology driven North American society, and our doctors find hard to believe: Avoidable care is costly in more ways than the bill - It may cause dangerous side effects. Physicians have the good intentions of doing what's best for their patients. But seems it's rare that a patient will say: Wait! I need more information. The A.P. analysis in the United-States concludes that our burgeoning epidemic of over treatment at every stage of life often means that someone could have fared as well or better with a lesser test or therapy, or maybe even none at all.

It frequently starts during birth where for platitudes expectant mothers choose Cesarean Section surgery; and it extends to futile intensive care efforts at the end of life. In between there are far too many CT (radiation) scans, MRI's, "stents" and bypasses for blocked arteries; and anti-biotics prescribed for viruses they can't help.

Though health care system delivery is different between Canada and in the United-States; the levelling fear for all North Americans is the ageing curve of the population explosion which followed the end of the Second World War. The early "baby boomers" have now entered their seventh decade of life. While there is no "fountain of youth", patient education is going to be extremely significant if we are to remain healthy before the money runs out.

EH! OBAMARAMA...

The landmark Health Care Reform legislation may be a huge victory for U.S. President Barack Obama, but at what cost?

Perhaps not since slavery tore apart the fledgling American nation 150 years ago, has the country been so divided over such basic human principles as universal health care. Half of the United-States is basking in the afterglow of a historic Congressional vote whilst the other half is vowing revenge.

At least eleven States; and as many as two-thirds of the Nation's fifty states (31) are prepping legal challenges against President Obama's health reform victory on the claim that the legislation violates State Constitutional rights.

A benchmark provision of the nearly $ 1-Trillion legislation allocates $19 Billion in stimulus funds to facilitate the shift from paper to electronic medical records. An issue which sadly...well, for Ontario at least...rings all too familiar. Perhaps also for all Canadians who benefit from a health-insurance covered 322-million visits to their doctor's office each year. Lest I digress: I can account for about 6 visits per year to my physician...but I am truly perplexed to learn from that statistic that each and every one of you see a doctor at least 11 times a year. Jeez, are y'all that sick?

Be that as it may - Have you ever heard of "Canada Health Infoway Incorporated"? - In the past nine years the not-for-profit corporation has received $2-Billion from the Federal Government...The largess of your tax dollars at work...to convert the nation's medical records electronically. The completion goal is in 2016 - Six year's out the Corporation reports a 5% to 10% completion rate.

The experience in my province of residency: Ontario, has been plagued by scandal. Beginning in 2002, under two separate agencies, the Government of Ontario has been accused of wasting hundreds of millions of dollars on its E-Medical system. First with the SSHA (Smart Systems for Health Agency) which was abolished in 2007; and replaced in 2008 by E-Health Ontario; accused in April 2009 of wasting the $647-million spent on the SSHA system by starting all over again from scratch. The wreckage from which condemned both E-Health's CEO, Sarah Kramer, and the province's Minister of Health, David Caplan, to the scrap pile of politics.

EVERYBODY: listen-up! - A new study...no less than from the prestigious "Harvard Medical School" suggests that electronic health records: "Do not save hospitals money...and, in fact often end up increasing costs."

The five year study of more than 4000 hospitals in the United-States found no evidence of savings, and just as importantly little evidence that electronic records improve care. The lead author of the Harvard University survey, David Himmerstein says although they did find hospitals where electronic records improved efficiency and quality - "Just not many." The key, he says, is customising computer systems to different hospitals, rather than using a one-size fits all approach.

Oh boy! I sure hope the good folks at E-Health Ontario were copied. The co-author of the Harvard Medical School study is even more blunt. According to Dr. Seffie Woolhandler: "It's premature to spend so much on computers before there's evidence it will be worthwhile." - Consider yourselves advised.

ADJUVANT THIS!

In the wake of media stories over the weekend that hundreds of doses of the H1N1 vaccine have been dumped for being passed their "best before" date, Federal health officials are sheepishly admitting...Ho-Hum, it isn't much of a pandemic after all. Qu'elle surprise!

The country's Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. David Butler-Jones, says the rate of infection across Canada is about 8% in this second wave; mild even when compared to the annual "seasonal flu" outbreaks. Not anywhere near the pandemic "to end all pandemics" predicted, anticipated, perhaps even wished for by some authorities anxious to test their skills and preparedness. Sheesh! At the cost of terrifying; Nay! Scaring to death an entire country, and then having the gall to tell everyone to wait in line...No! Don't bother - We've run-out: Go home!

Interesting that fully a month into this manufactured crisis the Canadian media has begun to wake-up and do precisely the investigative leg work it should have been doing all along, instead of buying into the panic created by a rookie, inexperienced, clearly out-of-her-depths Federal Minister of Health and her Ottawa and Winnipeg based officials. If this was meant to be Minister Leona Aglukkaq's shinning hour, she has clearly missed this boat looking more often like a frightened deer caught in twin headlamps, than an accomplished federal official. What is it with those eye glasses anyway? - Hire her an image consultant please. (I digress!) Little wonder that recently it's been mostly other Ministers of the Crown rising in the House of Commons to deal with the difficult questions over this alleged pandemic.

Is it any wonder that Canadians and the public-at-large grow increasingly cynical of those they elect, the bureaucracy they hire, and the media pledged to uncovering the truth? In this case there is plenty of blame to go around. Starting with the World Health Organization anxious to press the panic button in the flame-out of the bogus Avian Flu predictions a couple of year's back. - Federal and provincial politicians and institutions eager to demonstrate preparedness after being caught with their proverbial "pants-down" over the SARS outbreak in 2003. - And, the media who failed miserably in their crucial role in a democracy to debunk the fabricated "crap" of politicians without any vision beyond their next run for re-election.

If the Auditor-General Sheila Fraser is right? (As she frequently is) Then God help us the day a real crisis erupts. Although countless millions have no doubt been spent, our Federal bureaucracy still has not managed to get a grip on the National Emergency Preparedness Plan it vowed to create in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 tragedies more than eight years ago. Amen!

CHILL-AX!

The "Great Depression" of 2009 having run the course and now sputtering to its merciful end; public authorities have conspired with the media to yet again panic most of us: Over flu-shots.

What's going on here? Why has the collective psyche become so programmed, gullible and craved for prophets of doom? Canadians have been imbibed with a dose of scepticism over the pronouncements of our politicians. It seems though we may be sadly lacking in a healthy outbreak of scepticism over a bureaucracy assisted by the media's insatiable thirst for the morbid, and a pharmaceutical industry motivated by greed.

There is much anecdotal evidence to suggest that the 2009 outbreak of the flu virus is not essentially different than most. Figures from the Atlanta, Georgia based American Centers for Disease Control (CDC) which is generally considered the world's foremost authority on communicable disease, show that each year 200-thousand Americans are hospitalised with the "seasonal" flu...of those 36,000 die. Yes! People die of the flu each year and frequently for no good or apparent reasons. The CDC describes the current swine flu outbreak in these terms - "For most healthy individuals H1N1 can be mild but (it) can be serious for those with underlying medical conditions."

Here in Ottawa though, as in many other communities across Canada, residents are being panicked into lining-up for hours at mass immunization clinics that, were it not for the seriousness of the silly situation, might be worthy of a "Keystone Cop" movie scenario orchestrated by our public health officials.

Whoa, stand back a minute! SARS a few years back. The panic and planning over the Avian Flu. And, now this. One would like to think they would get it right. Ottawa's half-dozen or so clinics are averaging about 5000 people per day. In a city of one-million, if (as predicted) half of the population shows-up...it will take over 100 days (one third of a year) to deal with everyone who wants protection from H1N1. A long time after the outbreak has passed-on and, I suspect after the front-line personnel handling the flow have been in full retreat, if not already manning picket-lines. Yet the brain trust behind the plan have not allowed family physicians to immunize their own patients in their offices. In fact so ludicrous is the plan that doctors themselves are lined-up with the rest for hours at the public "cattle-call" clinics.

Let's smarten-up and switch-off the panic mode. In reality in 2009 as in most every year, flu related illnesses will claim Canadian lives. The H1N1 outbreak may be more virulent than some past seasonal flu strains. Yes: By all means everyone wishing to be immunized should have access to a doctor, a clinic, a health practitioner and whoever else can administer the dosage. But, let's just chill and relax. Although it is already too late for this year - From current appearance, Public Health Officials; the bureaucrats to whom they report; and our overheated media need to learn to better handle these matters. If practice makes efficient - if not perfect - We've got some way to go.