Muted commemorations this weekend as the United-States marks the 10th anniversary of the start of hostilities in Afghanistan; a conflict which has cost thousands of lives and more than a trillion dollars. Sadly there is a growing list of experts who fear the country could be sliding back towards the kind of civil war which led to the radical Islamic regime of the Taliban after the Russian pull-out of a similar misadventure signalled the ultimate demise of the Soviet Union two decades ago.
It was all so predictable: In "The Daily Telegraph" of London this weekend Britain's former ambassador to Kabul, Sherard Cowper-Coles, says it's a fantasy to think the war in Afghanistan is being won. He writes that military operations will not cure the underlying disease which has hobbled the region. It's pretty well clear that no one, least of all our American allies, have expectations of remaining for another decade, though that may be the stark reality they face. The 'Telegraph' quotes former United-States Commander in Afghanistan, Retired General Stanley McChrystal, who says that America and its allies are a "little better than" halfway towards their goals in the war. Even the Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose despicably corrupt regime has been propped-up for years by the United-States and the NATO allies (including Canada), says the mission has done..."terribly badly in providing security to the Afghan people and this is the greatest shortcoming of our government and of our international partners." No wonder that in Afghanistan this weekend the morbid anniversary is passing without commemoration by neither the government nor NATO and saddest of all, nor by the 140,000 foreign ground troops who are still stationed on the front lines. In a published report, "Jane's" the internationally respected defence publisher notes clearly that the future of Afghanistan will still "hang in the balance" after the planned departure of allied combat forces by the end of 2014. That's in sharp contrast to President Obama who yesterday told a gathering at the Whitehouse that the United-States is "responsibly ending today's wars from a position of strength." He made the remarks while honouring the military who've made the ultimate sacrifice since President George W. Bush launched the war against the Taliban regime after the Al-Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001.
In Providence, Rhode-Island meantime, researchers at Brown University say at least 33,877 people - foreign and Afghan troops, civilians, insurgents and others have died as a result of the conflict. The American Pentagon puts the cost of its own operations at $323.2 billion exclusive of costs borne by its NATO partners including Canada. Our Department of National Defence claims the cost so far has been $11.3 billion. Others have claimed that it's (in fact) closer to $22 billion. Canada engaged in the Afghan conflict in February 2002. It took on battle operations in August of 2003 with Operation Athena. History will show that it was a simplistic effort by the Liberal Government of Jean Chretien to abate American anger at our decision to stay out of President Bush's "coalition of the willing" in Iraq.
Buoyed by the initial success of the American military in routing the Taliban extremists from government in Afghanistan, the Bush Administration lost interest and quickly changed its focus to Iraq; leaving the hapless NATO allies (including Canada) to "clean-up" the Taliban's mess in Afghanistan. The problem is (and it continues to be): That while America's virtual carpet bombing of Kabul, Kandahar and other strategic targets in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks crumbled the Taliban regime - It scattered its supporters and fighters into the hills bordering Pakistan where in the decade since they've transformed from a rag-tag group of guerrilla fighters into a well disciplined and very patient militia. The irony is: That the United-States surreptitiously financed the Taliban insurgency against the Soviets two decades ago, and it continues to support (to the tune of billions of dollars each year) the Pakistani overlords who now protect them.
Media personalities, screen actors, winners of the Nobel Prize have been pushing back publicly against the Keystone XL oil pipeline project set for President Obama's final approval any day now.
Demonstrators have recently moved the protests to Ottawa as it has become increasingly obvious that in Washington's politically charged atmosphere, one year out from a Presidential election, green-flagging the pipeline is a "slam-dunk"; or a no-brainer as Stephen Harper described it to Bloomberg News in New York last weekend.
The 2700 Kilometer Keystone XL pipeline will draw unrefined oil from northern Alberta through Saskatchewan to enter the United-States in Montana on its way to the petroleum refineries along the Gulf Coast of southern Texas. The economic impact and the number of jobs created along its multi-states route are simply too overwhelming for the Obama Administration, which is fighting to regain control of America's troubled economy, to ignore.
Moving-on: Every step of the way along the Harper Government's efforts to improve trade relations with the United-States (pipeline included); Canada's strategy for negotiating the enhanced "Perimeter Security" arrangements has butted-heads and been hampered by America's steadfast resolve that homeland security trumps trade. Even when trade is with its neighbourly and overwhelmingly largest international business and trading partner. Though it may be unrelalted, The Government of the United-States has already declared that "water supply" is a national security issue.
A significant element of the problem already affects several states south of our shared 49th parallel. They have now allocated their maximum existing water supplies to farming, industry and urban development. Either they will have to do with less water, or tap large new sources as the North American climate continues to change and erode largely because of our human habits and indiscretions.
Back in 2010, Canada was one of a handful of countries which abstained from a vote at the United-Nations declaring water to be a universal right. Flushed with renewable fresh water resources along with our miniscule population which is less that 0.5% of the planet's, we Canadians are already the world's largest per capita consumers of water. The simmering debate given recent new life by trend spotters, some investment gurus, and conversely little attention by policy makers, seems to suggest: Forget oil and gas -Invest in water! Back in July, the Chief Economist at Citibank, William Buiter, pretty much said so in a memo to investors: "I expect to see in the near future a massive expansion of investment in the water sector, including the production of fresh, clean water from other sources (desalination, purification), storage, shipping and transportation of water. I expect to see pipeline networks that will exceed the capacity of those for oil and gas today." (Quoted from the Alphaville Blog)
An analysis prepared by the Canadian military, and so far (it seems) largely ignored by the escalating level of incompetents responsible for our Department of National Defence, (I digress!) claims that up to 60 countries could fall into a category of water scarcity or stress by 2050. It would place Canada and our abundance of water on the path to "a key source of (political) power" or a "basis for future conflict." Parts of the draft report titled: 'Army 2040 - First Look' were seen by Postmedia News in June, before the Citibank memo was issued by the Chief-Ecnomist.
The draft of the Army report concludes that Canada's path into this hazardous and problamic future depends on the policy decisions made by the government today. Haven't seen any. - Sure hope the planned largely discredited "Law and Order" legislation before the House of Commons isn't a sign-post precursor of the road ahead.
I don't know what the correct course of action is, much less a solution, to the dilemna Canadians face over Arctic sovereignty. I just know that the one we're on now isn't making us any friends, and in the long term probably won't make much difference over how the rest of the world divides-up the resources of the northern pole's lands and seas.
Prime Minister Harper has made it a priority of his government to increase the nation's presence in the North as the countries of the Arctic Council eye the vast amount of oil and the many other resources in the area. The Council created in 1996, includes Russia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the United States. Though Canadians may assume that we hold claim to much of the Arctic continent, check-out this list and it's pretty obvious who the big players are: America, which despite its moribund economic outlook is still a "superpower," and the Russians who with Vladimir Putin soon back in charge expect to regain post Communist bloc superpower status within the next decade or less.
Appearing before Parliament's Committee on Defence a year ago in October 2010, the Chair in Global Politics and International Law at the University of British Columbia, Michael Byers, warned that Canada's planned purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) could cause "angst in Russia" and trigger an arms race over the Arctic.
Before becoming Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister last winter, Nigel Wright was closely associated with a major U.S. aircraft manufacturer (Hawker Beechcraft) that is partnered with Lockheed-Martin with whom Canada has a sole-source multi-billion dollar contract to purchase the F-35 JSF being developed for the American military.
Though Canada's Defence Ministry remains steadfast in its willingness to buy the jet fighters as replacement for our fleet of CF-18's; defence analysts, some Members of Congress, and an ever increasing number of pundits, critics and bloggers south of the border aren't even sure the stealth fighter will ever make it into full production. The F-35's skyrocketing development costs estimated at $1-Trillion have placed the plane at the top of potential military program cuts as the United-States staggers under the weight of uncontrolled spending and debt.
Regardless of the fallout in America, on the other side of the North Pole the Russians it seems aren't waiting any longer to confirm the ominous prediction from U.B.C.'s professor Michael Byers. Pretty much secure in the knowledge that former President Putin, currently Prime Minister Putin, will once more be President Putin by 2012, after the present President (Dmitriy Medvedev)announced this weekend he's bowing-out in favour of Putin's return: The Russians have just announced they are substantially increasing Arctic military presence.
Here at home both the Minister of Defence, Peter MacKay, and the Chief of Defence Staff, General Walter Natynczyk, have been chastised for their personal (perhaps frivolous) use of military aircraft. But much more significant of the deteriorating consideration Russians hold for Canada's military and our Arctic plans, their announcement followed within hours a 3-day visit by Natynczyk to Moscow which, according to DND, was to..."gain the Russian perspective on a range of issues to improve and develop Canada's military relationship with Russia." Meantime Putin was in Iceland announcing that the country would be building a total of 9 ice-breakers to expand transportation in the Arctic. The announcement follows a July commitment to establish a 2000 soldier permanent force based in the Arctic, just a month before Canada's three week long fly-in / fly-out "Operation Nanook" in the North. By the way, Russia has permanently staffed Ice Station Borneo (about 40 miles from the North Pole) since 1996 and it's made it clear on several occasions in the recent past that NATO isn't welcomed on the frozen continent. - Which pretty much explains why the course we're on up there is not likely to work to our ultimate favour and advantage.
To digress: "The Night Watch Man" philosophy is a largely discredited 19th Century political concept which postulates that the State's only legitimate function is the protection of the liberty of its citizens. Two imperative manifestations of the theory are prison building, and massive military build-up and deployments.
The three-week long "Operation Nanook" which the Canadian Government by way of the Department of National Defence is launching this weekend, is the largest display yet of Arctic military muscle. In fact it is not just the military: Peter MacKay, the Minister of Defence, calls it a "whole of government approach" which includes the Coast Guard, the RCMP, Transport Canada, Public Safety Canada, Environment Canada as well as Indian and Northern Affairs. It culminates near the end of the month when Stephen Harper travels North to be photographed amongst this silly display doubtless much to the amusement of our allies and foes alike. Ever the supportive good Tory soldier, MacKay descibes Harper as..."very engaged on this file, part of his strong commitment to the Arctic."
One of a couple of key elements of this mutli-faceted "operation" involves a maritime search and rescue mission in international waters between Greenland and our northeastern Arctic coast. Three Danish Navy ships and a U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker will share in the duties. Of course that comes just a couple of weeks after Mr. Harper's Government floated (pardon the pun) a trial balloon about putting the "Search and Rescue" capabilities of Canada's military into private hands, I digress.
In fact, a highlight of this largest ever military deployment in the far north will be the first ever use of Boeing ScanEagle surveillance drones to aid in (among other things) the Greenland search mission. - Just like the ones Canada's military was using until recently in Afghanistan these predator drones aren't really ours. The drones flown in Afghanistan and their operators were part of a $95-Million lease from/with west coast based mega-defence contractor MacDonald-Dettwiler (MDA). Guess it's somewhat evident the good folks at competitor Boeing want in on the action. This week Peter MacKay told journalist Matthew Fisher this deployment is "precedent setting (and) a harbinger of things to come." Er, Ah, Ahem...truth be told - Alas, like so many other of Mr. MacKay's pronouncements about the Canadian military, this project is years behind schedule - May not see the light of day. In this case because the Forces don't have (Can't find - Can't afford) anyone to fly the drones. While they don't carry a pilot, each aircraft still requires operators on the ground to fly the plane on a typical 20-hour mission; experts to down-load and interpret its sophisticated photos data and images, and staff to maintain the equipment and prepare each drone for flight.
Dubbed JUSTAS (Joint un-manned aerial vehicle Surveillance and Target Acquisition System) it was an estimated $1.5 Billion venture scheduled for the government's approval back in 2009. Natch! It's backlogged by the Harper Government's "efficiency and effectiveness" review along with the Close Combat Vehicle program; the Buffalo aircraft replacement program; the Navy shipbuilding program...the list goes on.
Back to Arctic chest-thumping: Commenting on last spring's flurry of secret U.S. documents released via "Wikileaks," Journalist John Ibbitson of the Globe and Mail wrote about a cable from the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa - "Washington looks on all this with condescending amusement, noting that, though Mr. Harper is forever making announcements - An Arctic deep sea port! Armed patrol vessels! A new icebreaker! - his government rarely actually cuts a cheque."
Ultimately, it seems it's all just politics and photo-ops. I guess we should be grateful.
I was given to chuckle earlier in the week when the Minister of Defence unveiled an "interim" Cyclone Maritime Helicopter at CFB Shearwater in Nova Scotia.
As it's been with a growing number of Mr. MacKay's military procurement sales jobs; Thursday's effort in front of what at best can be described a loaner mock-up of a Sikorsky "Cyclone;"- the sales pitch is energetic; but unconvincing. It's the same near boring TV infomercial sales pitch we saw last July back here in Ottawa when Lockheed-Martin flew-in a shiny make believe mock-up of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter for McKay to play with in front of the TV cameras.
Making War satiates the base of the newly-minted Conservative majority supporters primarily in western Canada. Alas! As our American neighbours south of the border have discovered since the end of their "neo-con" Bush Administration, it's damned expensive...and in that case (at least) has just about bankrupt the largest economy in the world.
Interesting that here in the Great White North as Minister MacKay ascended the podium at Shearwater on Thursday, he was forced to defend a leaked DND report that his department will be cutting as many as 2500 civilian public service jobs. The story (and he's sticking to it) is that..."We are going through a belt-tightening exercise to achieve efficiencies and Canadians would expect and respect that." Ahem; Er; well except perhaps of course the 2500 poor sods and their families who will be turfed-out of their jobs. For whom the belt-tightening may be damned suffocating. - I digress!
The once proud National Leader of the Progressive-Conservative Party of Canada; Peter MacKay is now relegated to playing second and most often third fiddle to Stephen Harper's neo-Conservative Reform-Alliance movement which ultimately in 2005, swallowed-up the P.C.'s and morphed into the Conservative Party of Canada. Little wonder that in the immediate aftermath of the May 2nd Federal Election, the now retired longest-serving Speaker of the House of Commons, Peter Milliken, lamented publicly Canada's erosion of democracy. Mr. Milliken who served 10 years as Speaker blamed the erosion on the increase in the power of party leaders: "The leader says you vote this way or else you're out, and bango, you have to do it, or else. I don't think that's the way democracy was intended to function." Enough rant.
Somewhat like the logic for buying the F-35 jet fighter the rearmament factor doesn't fly. Because increasingly it seems to be financed by belt-tightening and increased efficiencies...your "new" Conservative Government Buzz-Words for Public Service cut-backs and lay-offs.
Despite some wonky and frequently clumsy sales gimmicks; on just about every file of the military ramped-up procurement programs, the personable Mr. MacKay does his level best to blow-down critics. Even with the new Conservative majority in Parliament, the Minister's ultimate challenge remains to convince our cash poor nation that the jaw-dropping cost of the untested, unproven,(just may never-fly) Lockheed-Martin F-35 jet fighter is in the country's best interest. On that file his worst enemy may be the Congress of the United-States. Facing a $14-Trillion national debt, Washington's political elite on both sides of the aisle are becoming increasingly jittery over shiny new military toys which are gobbling-up the U.S. Treasury. As Presidential elections loom large in 2012; this crown jewel of "out-of-control" military expenditures is clearly in their sight.
If, as some suspect, the F-35 "joint Strike Fighter" turns-out a lemon. We may all drown in lemonade before they are ever delivered to Canada.
