Little by little, step by step, slowly the country is turned. Safely ensconced in a "majority" third mandate in the Canadian Parliament, The Conservatives of Mr. Harper some critics foretell, will lead the country along a corrosive path of divisive political polarization.
In Canada, just as with our neighbours south, what passes for national discourse and debate is a new emerging culture of gladiator politics where nothing less than the annihilation of the opposition by any means is an acceptable outcome. Techniques skillfully used by the minority H1 and H2 Governments to destroy two national party leaders (Dion & Ignatieff) and decimate the Liberal Party of Canada. Lest I digress pundits argue the very same methods honed and tested by Mr. Harper's western based Reform/Alliance supporters in eliminating the Progressive-Conservatives a decade ago.
With a comfortable 166 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives' long simmering right of centre agenda which includes abolishing the long-gun registry; sweeping reforms to crime and punishment; harsher prosecutions and longer jail terms; and a muscular foreign policy supported by increased militarization will unfold by Parliament's return in the fall.
For the most part those measures formed the base of the Conservative Party platform leading into the May 2nd Federal Election, and they were reiterated by the Governor General in the "Speech From The Throne" a couple or three weeks back. But in a recent and subsequent national convention held here in Ottawa the Party also reaffirmed its position that marriage is "the union of one man and one woman," as well as its opposition to euthanasia. Fringe elements within the party's core of supporters have never been shy about also adding the return of Capital Punishment and ending abortions to that list.
Very recent developments including intervention into, and the threat of forcing striking employees of Canada Post and at Air Canada to go back to work, have set clear precedents for this Federal Government. Particularly alarming for the future of the country's labour relations is Mr. Harper's swift reaction to the walkout of 3,800 service staff employees at Air Canada, a private corporation in a competitive environment. At first glance the government action seems to send an unequivocal message about the nation's collective bargaining process, one which in fact could void, well at least emasculate, elements of the Canada Labour Code.
Alas; conspiracy theorists could be forgiven if they believe the threat of bringing the labour movement to its knees is just one element of a coordinated plan of post election strategies rolling-out as the Parliamentary Session breaks for the summer. The centre-moderate Liberal Party of Canada having now been obliterated, the way is sufficiently cleared to set sight on another bastion of a Parliamentary democracy: The pesky journalists of the Ottawa based national press gallery. Veterans of the country's press corps have been both targeted and alarmed by recent attacks akin to Richard Nixon's rants about the "nattering nabobs of negativism" circa 1972.
Just before the Conservative National Convention in Ottawa held starting on June 10, the Party President John Walsh sent-out a letter to the faithful soliciting funds to fight against what he called..."the hailstorm of negative attacks from the media elite." His letter was subsequently followed-up with an outburst from the podium at the said convention by former Reform/Alliance Leader and past Treasury Board Chair Stockwell Day who blasted the country's media for engaging in personal attacks. Even more recently the Conservative Leader in the Senate, Senator Marjorie LeBreton, blasted the national media for spending too much time criticizing Stephen Harper during the election campaign. Her opinions were published in a national daily newspaper.
Along with the obligatory respect for, and the trust in, those we elect to represent us; our confidence in the elements and institutions of a vibrant healthy democracy are eroding at a steady, methodical and alarming pace. Canada's political culture has been stressed and its discourse is increasingly ignorant,cheap and coarse. That's our fault. And, unless Canadians demand change, "real" political leadership will continue to elude us. Pity!
Showing posts with label Federal Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Election. Show all posts
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
THE "PRE" POST-MORTEM
One thing seems abundantly obvious on the eve of this 2011 Federal Election. It is that the tactics and practices of "the architect" as he's been affectionately called by George W, Bush, have no place in Canadian politics.
As was observed in publication this weekend; Canadians are neither infantile nor incapable of clear-headed thought; especially when it comes to elections. In this instance (perhaps) we have been fortunate to be side-line observers of the bitter, divisive, bi-partisan, non-compromising political tactics which have hobbled the United-States of America, diminished both its influence and respect around the world, and brought it to the edge of financial collapse.
"The architect," Karl Rove may be credited with a series of successful political campaigns, including those of the former President George W. Bush, across the United States; but his name has also come-up in respect with some political scandals and controversies down in Washington. The aftermath of both successes and failures is plainly obvious to Canadians who, because of our proximity, are exposed every day to news, commentaries and observations from south of the border.
In this most recent of our 4th Federal Election campaign in six year the politics of cynicism borrowed from Mr. Rove's "playbook" appear to have worked sufficiently to wound the Liberal Party beyond short-term recovery. The turbulent 2011 election campaign has been dominated by vacuous talk about coalitions; bickering politicians; and "stable" government designed more to disengage voters than engage them in honest discussion about ideas and visions for our future and the policies to implement them.
But to the embarrassment of just about every pundit, commentator and observer a week ago; when a record shattering 2,056,001 allegedly "disengaged" voters cast ballots in advance polling; they re-energized the election and threw the carefully planned and scripted scenarios of the campaign "war rooms" right into the nearest garbage receptacles. Lest I digress; calling them War Rooms is a major part of the problem. Election campaigns are not "wars" : They are the highest calling of the democratic process.
It seems that tomorrow's voter turn-out and much anticipated election night results may signal an historic shift which, at the very least, is poised to affirm and solidify the supremacy of Parliament and the elected members of the House of Commons, its rules, traditions and the Constitution, over the imperial or presidential aspirations of our party leaders.
As was observed in publication this weekend; Canadians are neither infantile nor incapable of clear-headed thought; especially when it comes to elections. In this instance (perhaps) we have been fortunate to be side-line observers of the bitter, divisive, bi-partisan, non-compromising political tactics which have hobbled the United-States of America, diminished both its influence and respect around the world, and brought it to the edge of financial collapse.
"The architect," Karl Rove may be credited with a series of successful political campaigns, including those of the former President George W. Bush, across the United States; but his name has also come-up in respect with some political scandals and controversies down in Washington. The aftermath of both successes and failures is plainly obvious to Canadians who, because of our proximity, are exposed every day to news, commentaries and observations from south of the border.
In this most recent of our 4th Federal Election campaign in six year the politics of cynicism borrowed from Mr. Rove's "playbook" appear to have worked sufficiently to wound the Liberal Party beyond short-term recovery. The turbulent 2011 election campaign has been dominated by vacuous talk about coalitions; bickering politicians; and "stable" government designed more to disengage voters than engage them in honest discussion about ideas and visions for our future and the policies to implement them.
But to the embarrassment of just about every pundit, commentator and observer a week ago; when a record shattering 2,056,001 allegedly "disengaged" voters cast ballots in advance polling; they re-energized the election and threw the carefully planned and scripted scenarios of the campaign "war rooms" right into the nearest garbage receptacles. Lest I digress; calling them War Rooms is a major part of the problem. Election campaigns are not "wars" : They are the highest calling of the democratic process.
It seems that tomorrow's voter turn-out and much anticipated election night results may signal an historic shift which, at the very least, is poised to affirm and solidify the supremacy of Parliament and the elected members of the House of Commons, its rules, traditions and the Constitution, over the imperial or presidential aspirations of our party leaders.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
DEADWEIGHT LOSS
Why is the Federal Government ready to front the State of Michigan close to $600-Million for its share of building a second Windsor-Detroit bridge?
Michigan's economy is flat-broke and commercial interests on the Canadian side of the border are so critically important that there is virtually no other choice. Lest I digress...I say "virtually" no other choice, because the private owner of the Ambassador Bridge, Detroit billionaire and right-wing conservative Matty Moroun, is ready and willing to build his own second bridge. In fact Mr. Moroun has been running a series of "attack ads" against the government's project on American television, including Fox News.
"Thickening" of America's border with Canada and the Harper Government's efforts last winter to blunt its effect with a "Perimeter Security" arrangement have remained pretty much under the radar during the current Federal Election campaign. It may be that the issue was pretty much a non-starter despite vocal critics dubbing it at the time as an attack on Canadian sovereignty.
Since the near collapse of the American economy in the "Great Recession of 2008" there's been an interesting seesaw effect in the balance of trade between our two nations. Though it remains the most significant exchange of trade and services on the planet; business between the United-States and Canada dropped to $430-Billion in imports and exports in 2009 from a pre-recession high of about $600-Billion, and shot back up to $525-Billion in 2010. It's hard to predict just how the meteoric rise of the Canadian "Loonie" to $1.05 USD will affect trade matters through 2011; but VISA Credit Cards USA reported just last week that Canadian cross-border shoppers accounted for a multi-billion dollar increase in its bottom line since the start of the new year.
Back at the Detroit River bottle neck, a recent study published by two southwestern Ontario Universities (University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University)concludes that the costs of border crossing delays can be startlingly large especially in the automobile sector. For example, it's estimated that the parts and sub-assemblies of automobiles which criss-cross the border several times during production, adds about $800 to the final cost of each automobile. In contrast imported cars from overseas only pass through Customs once; on entering the country.
When it's all put together this loss of economic efficiency known as "deadweight loss" may be sufficiently large to offset Canada's economic gains produced by the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The cost of border delays estimated by the study at Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier may be as much as $30-Billion per year...and the Province of Ontario is its biggest loser. The long-term effect is that potential investors are looking elsewhere when it comes time to open businesses that rely on cross-border shipments.
National "orange surge" or not; polls and pundits predict that it will be difficult on Monday to unseat the two Windsor area N.D.P. Members of Parliament, Brian Masse (Windsor West) and Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh), both of whom are strong supporters of the Harper Government's plan to pay our share of the bridge cost, and to advance the Americans a major share of their costs. Windsor's economy and that of the neighbouring Essex Riding, held by Conservative MP Jeff Watson, have been devastated by the economic downturn in the United-States and the still very fragile recovery of the automobile assembly sector in the Detroit area.
Unless and until car parts, automobiles, lumber, oil and gas; pretty much everything else Canada produces can magically cross the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans as easily as trucks and trains cross into the United States of America; our economic fate is in American hands...a somewhat shaky prospect which may explain why "border issues" have remained off of the election trail.
Michigan's economy is flat-broke and commercial interests on the Canadian side of the border are so critically important that there is virtually no other choice. Lest I digress...I say "virtually" no other choice, because the private owner of the Ambassador Bridge, Detroit billionaire and right-wing conservative Matty Moroun, is ready and willing to build his own second bridge. In fact Mr. Moroun has been running a series of "attack ads" against the government's project on American television, including Fox News.
"Thickening" of America's border with Canada and the Harper Government's efforts last winter to blunt its effect with a "Perimeter Security" arrangement have remained pretty much under the radar during the current Federal Election campaign. It may be that the issue was pretty much a non-starter despite vocal critics dubbing it at the time as an attack on Canadian sovereignty.
Since the near collapse of the American economy in the "Great Recession of 2008" there's been an interesting seesaw effect in the balance of trade between our two nations. Though it remains the most significant exchange of trade and services on the planet; business between the United-States and Canada dropped to $430-Billion in imports and exports in 2009 from a pre-recession high of about $600-Billion, and shot back up to $525-Billion in 2010. It's hard to predict just how the meteoric rise of the Canadian "Loonie" to $1.05 USD will affect trade matters through 2011; but VISA Credit Cards USA reported just last week that Canadian cross-border shoppers accounted for a multi-billion dollar increase in its bottom line since the start of the new year.
Back at the Detroit River bottle neck, a recent study published by two southwestern Ontario Universities (University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University)concludes that the costs of border crossing delays can be startlingly large especially in the automobile sector. For example, it's estimated that the parts and sub-assemblies of automobiles which criss-cross the border several times during production, adds about $800 to the final cost of each automobile. In contrast imported cars from overseas only pass through Customs once; on entering the country.
When it's all put together this loss of economic efficiency known as "deadweight loss" may be sufficiently large to offset Canada's economic gains produced by the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The cost of border delays estimated by the study at Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier may be as much as $30-Billion per year...and the Province of Ontario is its biggest loser. The long-term effect is that potential investors are looking elsewhere when it comes time to open businesses that rely on cross-border shipments.
National "orange surge" or not; polls and pundits predict that it will be difficult on Monday to unseat the two Windsor area N.D.P. Members of Parliament, Brian Masse (Windsor West) and Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh), both of whom are strong supporters of the Harper Government's plan to pay our share of the bridge cost, and to advance the Americans a major share of their costs. Windsor's economy and that of the neighbouring Essex Riding, held by Conservative MP Jeff Watson, have been devastated by the economic downturn in the United-States and the still very fragile recovery of the automobile assembly sector in the Detroit area.
Unless and until car parts, automobiles, lumber, oil and gas; pretty much everything else Canada produces can magically cross the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans as easily as trucks and trains cross into the United States of America; our economic fate is in American hands...a somewhat shaky prospect which may explain why "border issues" have remained off of the election trail.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
A QUESTION OF LEADERSHIP
A couple of provincial political parties have come to grips publicly this weekend with matters of leadership.
Out on the west coast, British Columbia's New Democrats are struggling with a decision whether to shift their traditionally left-wing party into the Centre to challenge head-on the Liberal Government of Premier Christy Clark in the next provincial election. - Or take the party to a more traditional hard(er) left; in a counter effort against the Right of Center burgeoning B.C. Progressive-Conservative party which is being championed by their own former NDP Premier, Bill Vander Zalm, and former Newfoundland P.C. Premier, Brian Peckford.
Whilst in Quebec, Parti Quebecois leader Pauline Marois picked-up 94% support in a confidence motion at the party's annual conclave. As with British-Columbia, Quebec is gearing-up for a widely anticipated Provincial Election pitting 3-term scandal plagued Liberal Premier Jean Charest (scraping the bottom of the polling barrel) against all comers. Despite her astounding "vote o' confidence;" in Quebec's political backrooms, Mme Marois is disliked and not the PQ's first leadership choice to confront the Charest Liberals. Federal Bloc-Quebecois Leader, the charismatic Gilles Duceppe, is much more likely to lead (and win) the provincial Separatist movement in any upcoming Quebec Election. Duceppe you will recall threw-in his hat against Marois in the PQ's last leadership go-round to replace former Premier Bernard Landry; but in a move never adequately explained, he stepped-out just as fast as he'd stepped-in.
Be that as it may: Beyond Mr. Duceppe's anticipated transfer to the Quebec Provincial scene; the current May 2Nd Federal General Election will define the future political career of all 5 major Canadian Party leaders: From Stephen Harper on down to the Greens' Elizabeth May:
STEPHEN HARPER: Pundits, observers and pollsters share the opinion that Mr. Harper's Conservatives will be re-elected On May 2 once more with a "Minority" of seats in the House of Commons. Though the Conservative Party of Canada is said to be a one-man effort (Harper's), waiting in the wings for the right moment to swing into a leadership challenge is New Brunswick's former Premier Bernard Lord. The charismatic fluently bilingual young politician has been purposely staying-out of the current Federal tilt so as not to taint his own image with the Harper Brand. A 2011 version of a Harper Minority Government; the Prime Minister's 4Th attempt at a majority will sound the death knell of his leadership either with another eventual defeat in Parliament...or more likely with the call of a party leadership convention and Stephen Harper's retirement from active politics.
MICHAEL IGNATIEFF: For the Federal Party dubbed the 20Th Century's "natural governing party," only a win will do. And, as an astute observer noted this week..."that win is squarely on the shoulders of 64 year-old Ignatieff." From Wilfred Laurier; on down through MacKenzie-King, Louis St. Laurent, Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien: Liberals are expected to perform, and the performance criteria is winning elections. And; as even Nobel Laureat Lester B. Pearson learned after being elected in two historic Minority Parliaments, if a House majority doesn't materialize, there is no room at the party helm for that person anymore. Although the (very) young Justin Trudeau has aspirations to, and is clearly being groomed for an eventual leadership bid, party insiders know that he's not yet sufficiently seasoned to take over from Ignatieff when, - barring a "Coalition" of minority Parliamentarians of sorts later this spring, - he does not end-up Prime-Minister, and walks away. At that point; the Liberals may be looking for another short-term leader and Ignatieff's old college roommate and former Ontario NDP Premier Bob Rae may be among the very few choices.
JACK LAYTON: Far less is at stake when you are the perennial third or fourth place finisher. His party aside, polls suggest Mr. Layton is best liked and integrates the leadership qualities Canadians demand. Someone observed in conversation just yesterday that had Layton stepped-on over to the Liberals (as did Bob Rae), he'd most likely be elected Prime Minister on May Second. Except for a limited number of strong New Democrat ridings, Mr. Layton "is" the NDP. One of those growing areas of support is in metropolitan urban Quebec. Based on decades of work by Phil Edmonston, picked-up much more recently by former provincial (Liberal) Cabinet Minister, and current NDP Deputy-Leader and Outremont MP Thomas Mulchair, the party may record significant gains in May taking votes away from both the Liberals and the Conservatives. In light of Mr. Layton's health issues, any significant breakthrough in the large urban ridings of the province of Quebec would bode well for a Mulchair leadership takeover and (perhaps like the NDP in British-Columbia) a significant makeover of the party philosophy.
GILLES DUCEPPE: The charismatic Mr. Duceppe is a consummate politicians and like many previous Quebec based fringe parties with national aspirations; Real Caouette and the "Socreds" for instance; I think he knows that the Quebec destiny (whatever it is) will be shaped at home. It's over for the "Separatist" movement as we've known it for 40 years. The new "Independantistes" are pragmatic and urbane and Mr. Duceppe is itching to be Premier of Quebec. A 21St Century Rene Levesque in white armour ready to tackle both domestic issues and "les anglais" of Canada. In the aftermath of the May 2Nd election (with a secure lifelong Federal Parliamentary pension in hand) he's about to be handed his chance. Despite her overwhelming "vote of confidence" this weekend, the machinations are already well greased in the Provincial Parti Quebecois to secure Duceppe's leadership so that he's poised to slay the pesky Jean Charest before year's end.
ELIZABETH MAY: A week in politics is an eternity. Never mind 3 years! Stephane Dion's cornerstone Liberal Party platform in 2008 was an omnibus "Green Plan." - Sadly, and despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, in this second decade of the 21St Century, If at all, "The Environment" is an insignificant blip on the political radar screen. Though Mrs. May and the "Greens" polled about one-million votes in 2008, no one was elected. No positive results either at a handful of noteworthy Federal by-elections in the 3 years hence, including one or two attempts by Mrs. May herself. In eliminating Mrs. May from last week's debate, the "Leaders' Television Consortium" was anticipating realistically the Federal vote results. There's just nothing for Mrs. May to hang-on for.
As they say on Election Night: If the trends are maintained; though the standings in the House won't change much: 2011 may be a seminal election which leads to a wholesale shake-up in Canadian party politics. - In Monte Carlo they'd say: "Les jeux sont faits!"
Out on the west coast, British Columbia's New Democrats are struggling with a decision whether to shift their traditionally left-wing party into the Centre to challenge head-on the Liberal Government of Premier Christy Clark in the next provincial election. - Or take the party to a more traditional hard(er) left; in a counter effort against the Right of Center burgeoning B.C. Progressive-Conservative party which is being championed by their own former NDP Premier, Bill Vander Zalm, and former Newfoundland P.C. Premier, Brian Peckford.
Whilst in Quebec, Parti Quebecois leader Pauline Marois picked-up 94% support in a confidence motion at the party's annual conclave. As with British-Columbia, Quebec is gearing-up for a widely anticipated Provincial Election pitting 3-term scandal plagued Liberal Premier Jean Charest (scraping the bottom of the polling barrel) against all comers. Despite her astounding "vote o' confidence;" in Quebec's political backrooms, Mme Marois is disliked and not the PQ's first leadership choice to confront the Charest Liberals. Federal Bloc-Quebecois Leader, the charismatic Gilles Duceppe, is much more likely to lead (and win) the provincial Separatist movement in any upcoming Quebec Election. Duceppe you will recall threw-in his hat against Marois in the PQ's last leadership go-round to replace former Premier Bernard Landry; but in a move never adequately explained, he stepped-out just as fast as he'd stepped-in.
Be that as it may: Beyond Mr. Duceppe's anticipated transfer to the Quebec Provincial scene; the current May 2Nd Federal General Election will define the future political career of all 5 major Canadian Party leaders: From Stephen Harper on down to the Greens' Elizabeth May:
STEPHEN HARPER: Pundits, observers and pollsters share the opinion that Mr. Harper's Conservatives will be re-elected On May 2 once more with a "Minority" of seats in the House of Commons. Though the Conservative Party of Canada is said to be a one-man effort (Harper's), waiting in the wings for the right moment to swing into a leadership challenge is New Brunswick's former Premier Bernard Lord. The charismatic fluently bilingual young politician has been purposely staying-out of the current Federal tilt so as not to taint his own image with the Harper Brand. A 2011 version of a Harper Minority Government; the Prime Minister's 4Th attempt at a majority will sound the death knell of his leadership either with another eventual defeat in Parliament...or more likely with the call of a party leadership convention and Stephen Harper's retirement from active politics.
MICHAEL IGNATIEFF: For the Federal Party dubbed the 20Th Century's "natural governing party," only a win will do. And, as an astute observer noted this week..."that win is squarely on the shoulders of 64 year-old Ignatieff." From Wilfred Laurier; on down through MacKenzie-King, Louis St. Laurent, Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien: Liberals are expected to perform, and the performance criteria is winning elections. And; as even Nobel Laureat Lester B. Pearson learned after being elected in two historic Minority Parliaments, if a House majority doesn't materialize, there is no room at the party helm for that person anymore. Although the (very) young Justin Trudeau has aspirations to, and is clearly being groomed for an eventual leadership bid, party insiders know that he's not yet sufficiently seasoned to take over from Ignatieff when, - barring a "Coalition" of minority Parliamentarians of sorts later this spring, - he does not end-up Prime-Minister, and walks away. At that point; the Liberals may be looking for another short-term leader and Ignatieff's old college roommate and former Ontario NDP Premier Bob Rae may be among the very few choices.
JACK LAYTON: Far less is at stake when you are the perennial third or fourth place finisher. His party aside, polls suggest Mr. Layton is best liked and integrates the leadership qualities Canadians demand. Someone observed in conversation just yesterday that had Layton stepped-on over to the Liberals (as did Bob Rae), he'd most likely be elected Prime Minister on May Second. Except for a limited number of strong New Democrat ridings, Mr. Layton "is" the NDP. One of those growing areas of support is in metropolitan urban Quebec. Based on decades of work by Phil Edmonston, picked-up much more recently by former provincial (Liberal) Cabinet Minister, and current NDP Deputy-Leader and Outremont MP Thomas Mulchair, the party may record significant gains in May taking votes away from both the Liberals and the Conservatives. In light of Mr. Layton's health issues, any significant breakthrough in the large urban ridings of the province of Quebec would bode well for a Mulchair leadership takeover and (perhaps like the NDP in British-Columbia) a significant makeover of the party philosophy.
GILLES DUCEPPE: The charismatic Mr. Duceppe is a consummate politicians and like many previous Quebec based fringe parties with national aspirations; Real Caouette and the "Socreds" for instance; I think he knows that the Quebec destiny (whatever it is) will be shaped at home. It's over for the "Separatist" movement as we've known it for 40 years. The new "Independantistes" are pragmatic and urbane and Mr. Duceppe is itching to be Premier of Quebec. A 21St Century Rene Levesque in white armour ready to tackle both domestic issues and "les anglais" of Canada. In the aftermath of the May 2Nd election (with a secure lifelong Federal Parliamentary pension in hand) he's about to be handed his chance. Despite her overwhelming "vote of confidence" this weekend, the machinations are already well greased in the Provincial Parti Quebecois to secure Duceppe's leadership so that he's poised to slay the pesky Jean Charest before year's end.
ELIZABETH MAY: A week in politics is an eternity. Never mind 3 years! Stephane Dion's cornerstone Liberal Party platform in 2008 was an omnibus "Green Plan." - Sadly, and despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, in this second decade of the 21St Century, If at all, "The Environment" is an insignificant blip on the political radar screen. Though Mrs. May and the "Greens" polled about one-million votes in 2008, no one was elected. No positive results either at a handful of noteworthy Federal by-elections in the 3 years hence, including one or two attempts by Mrs. May herself. In eliminating Mrs. May from last week's debate, the "Leaders' Television Consortium" was anticipating realistically the Federal vote results. There's just nothing for Mrs. May to hang-on for.
As they say on Election Night: If the trends are maintained; though the standings in the House won't change much: 2011 may be a seminal election which leads to a wholesale shake-up in Canadian party politics. - In Monte Carlo they'd say: "Les jeux sont faits!"
Monday, April 4, 2011
SHOWDOWN IN PARLIAMENT - REDUX
HARD NEWS, STRAIGHT TALK: Meet the new signature tag for Sun News Network which launches on Monday, April 18th just as the dust begins to settle over next week's televised leaders' debate(s); and 2 weeks to Federal Election day. Pundit, blogger and former Jean Chretien campaign chief Warren Kinsella will assume a starring role over at Sun News as the web's token Liberal. Let it not be said that Quebecor's foray into English language all-news television won't be "fair and balanced" just like America's Fox News on whose template it's being propped.
SCARY EVEN TO LITTLE CHILDREN: Pundit Kinsella opines that the Harper Conservative campaign is flawed from the git-go. Mr. Kinsella has suggested that the Tory attack ads against Michael Ignatieff have been built..."on too many exaggerations, too many out of context quotes and too many falsehoods." And; as electors become increasingly exposed to the reality of the Liberal Leader, the Conservative contradictions become painfully obvious. With the campaign now well under way, Canadians tuning-in have seen that Ignatieff,(perhaps) unlike his predecessor Stephane Dion, isn't nearly as bad as he's been made out to be.
HECK! THE SAME OLD SAME OLD: The "Harper Headed to Majority" headlines have the Prime Minister's handlers fretting that the campaign efforts may be peaking too soon. They've had Mr. Harper launch the week's campaigning assuring his audience in Welland that..."the Conservatives would govern the same with a majority as they have in a minority." Implying that there is no hidden socially conservative agenda. It's the unspoken fear that derailed Mr. Harper's three previous campaigns and eventually scared enough voters away to deny his party a ruling majority.
ELVIS HAS LEFT THE BUILDING: The Prime Minister has successfully ignored his own suggestion of a "one-on-one" debate with the Liberal Leader. Neither politician is a scintillating spell-binder. Still there's a sense that (...here I hesitate) an American-style debate between the two front-runners would have injected considerable interest into a otherwise moribund campaign. Of course, the downside of a campaign debate moderated by Rick Mercer is that the CBC Comedian and current 'McLean's Magazine' pundit may himself have ended-up being elected Prime-Minister.
WHEN A MAJORITY IS NOT A MAJORITY: In the May 2nd election there are roughly 16-million eligible voters. If (as they say on election night coverage) the trend persists: Perhaps no more than 8-million people will be voting in this Federal Election. Regardless of which party wins on election night...if 40% of votes cast represent the magic majority of seats in Parliament: Under 4-million Canadians could elect the country's first majority government in eleven years. More than 40% of eligible Canadian adults did not bother to vote in 2008, the lowest turnout since Confederation, and there's little indication that next month's election will yield better results. I guess we'll get the government we deserve.
SCARY EVEN TO LITTLE CHILDREN: Pundit Kinsella opines that the Harper Conservative campaign is flawed from the git-go. Mr. Kinsella has suggested that the Tory attack ads against Michael Ignatieff have been built..."on too many exaggerations, too many out of context quotes and too many falsehoods." And; as electors become increasingly exposed to the reality of the Liberal Leader, the Conservative contradictions become painfully obvious. With the campaign now well under way, Canadians tuning-in have seen that Ignatieff,(perhaps) unlike his predecessor Stephane Dion, isn't nearly as bad as he's been made out to be.
HECK! THE SAME OLD SAME OLD: The "Harper Headed to Majority" headlines have the Prime Minister's handlers fretting that the campaign efforts may be peaking too soon. They've had Mr. Harper launch the week's campaigning assuring his audience in Welland that..."the Conservatives would govern the same with a majority as they have in a minority." Implying that there is no hidden socially conservative agenda. It's the unspoken fear that derailed Mr. Harper's three previous campaigns and eventually scared enough voters away to deny his party a ruling majority.
ELVIS HAS LEFT THE BUILDING: The Prime Minister has successfully ignored his own suggestion of a "one-on-one" debate with the Liberal Leader. Neither politician is a scintillating spell-binder. Still there's a sense that (...here I hesitate) an American-style debate between the two front-runners would have injected considerable interest into a otherwise moribund campaign. Of course, the downside of a campaign debate moderated by Rick Mercer is that the CBC Comedian and current 'McLean's Magazine' pundit may himself have ended-up being elected Prime-Minister.
WHEN A MAJORITY IS NOT A MAJORITY: In the May 2nd election there are roughly 16-million eligible voters. If (as they say on election night coverage) the trend persists: Perhaps no more than 8-million people will be voting in this Federal Election. Regardless of which party wins on election night...if 40% of votes cast represent the magic majority of seats in Parliament: Under 4-million Canadians could elect the country's first majority government in eleven years. More than 40% of eligible Canadian adults did not bother to vote in 2008, the lowest turnout since Confederation, and there's little indication that next month's election will yield better results. I guess we'll get the government we deserve.
Monday, March 28, 2011
WITH ELECTIONS, IT'S BEST TO DIVE RIGHT IN.
-THAT COALITION THING: At the end of the day, Governor-General David Johnston will be hard-pressed to decline an opposition offer to form a two (or three) party coalition government if, as polls steadfastly suggest, another Conservative minority is elected on May second. In the early going, though the motive to take away as many seats as possible from the NDP and Bloc is strategic; Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is wrong to categorically rule-out a coalition. To their disadvantage, this issue is not going away, and will continue to haunt the Liberals right through the election campaign.
-A REFERENDUM ON LEADERSHIP: The election is an unprecedented fourth attempt by any Canadian national party leader to secure a majority number of seats in the House of Commons. It's testimony to Stephen Harper's tenacious iron-grip on his leadership of the Conservatives that he's still around considering just how we've gotten where we are: Though it can't be argued that Mr. Harper forced the first election as leader of the Reform/Alliance back in 2004...in 2005 it was Mr. Harper's own motion of non-confidence that upended the Paul Martin government, and in 2008 it was he who asked the Governor-General to dissolve Parliament on the eve of the "Great Recession", describing The House as dysfunctional. In this fourth go around Mr. Harper is the centrepiece of the campaign. - Winner to be declared by whichever of the main parties presents the most credible version of the "real" Stephen Harper.
- IT'S NOT A POLITICAL GAME: When his government collapsed on Friday last, Mr. Harper lamented from the foyer of the House of Commons that Canada's economy is not a political game. Of course he's right. That's why the Conservative strategy to paint themselves as guardian of Canada's economic strength will fail. Where it matters, in the world's economic markets - New York, London, Tokyo, Beijing...Hell! even in Toronto; global investors have far weightier issues on their minds than the outcome of yet another election in Canada. Three days into the campaign, Moody's Investors Services is already telling its significant players that any new budget, Conservative or Liberal, introduced after the election will continue to embrace the (national)..."consensus on the desirability of debt reduction." - Mr. Harper's Government in fact may be playing loose with some of it's own economic facts: Canada is NOT leading the global economic recovery. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says we're 10th amongst it's 17 member nations in 2010; and (to be fair) expected to move up to ninth by this year's end. Matter of fact, Australia and Sweden are at the top of the list.
As the saying (repeated ad nausea) goes - "In politics a week is an eternity" - Stay tuned?
-A REFERENDUM ON LEADERSHIP: The election is an unprecedented fourth attempt by any Canadian national party leader to secure a majority number of seats in the House of Commons. It's testimony to Stephen Harper's tenacious iron-grip on his leadership of the Conservatives that he's still around considering just how we've gotten where we are: Though it can't be argued that Mr. Harper forced the first election as leader of the Reform/Alliance back in 2004...in 2005 it was Mr. Harper's own motion of non-confidence that upended the Paul Martin government, and in 2008 it was he who asked the Governor-General to dissolve Parliament on the eve of the "Great Recession", describing The House as dysfunctional. In this fourth go around Mr. Harper is the centrepiece of the campaign. - Winner to be declared by whichever of the main parties presents the most credible version of the "real" Stephen Harper.
- IT'S NOT A POLITICAL GAME: When his government collapsed on Friday last, Mr. Harper lamented from the foyer of the House of Commons that Canada's economy is not a political game. Of course he's right. That's why the Conservative strategy to paint themselves as guardian of Canada's economic strength will fail. Where it matters, in the world's economic markets - New York, London, Tokyo, Beijing...Hell! even in Toronto; global investors have far weightier issues on their minds than the outcome of yet another election in Canada. Three days into the campaign, Moody's Investors Services is already telling its significant players that any new budget, Conservative or Liberal, introduced after the election will continue to embrace the (national)..."consensus on the desirability of debt reduction." - Mr. Harper's Government in fact may be playing loose with some of it's own economic facts: Canada is NOT leading the global economic recovery. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says we're 10th amongst it's 17 member nations in 2010; and (to be fair) expected to move up to ninth by this year's end. Matter of fact, Australia and Sweden are at the top of the list.
As the saying (repeated ad nausea) goes - "In politics a week is an eternity" - Stay tuned?
Saturday, March 19, 2011
PARADISE FORECLOSED
Amidst a surprising litany of political scandals on Parliament Hill, some reaching practically all the way into the inner sanctum of the Office of the Prime Minister; Mr. Harper has travelled to Europe to a hastily convened meeting over Libya's civil war. A calculated effort to bolster the illusion that, just as it did in the Great Wars of the Twentieth Century, Canada can still affect the course of human history.
Marching into war, even if it's only with a token force of six ageing jet fighters, is the cost we'll be paying for the Conservatives to show (at least if you believe their barrage of TV advertising) the Prime Minister's firm grip on the tiller of power - As was the case when he (single handily) rescued the planet's battered economy a couple of years back.
To no one's surprise, to proffer an illusion on the eve of tabling next Tuesday's Federal Budget confirms it almost seems, despite rhetoric to the contrary, that the Conservatives are preparing to launch into a national election campaign by week's end. It becomes thus safe to conclude that Tuesday's budget will itself be an illusion, without hope of passage, designed to springboard Mr. Harper's ruling party into the election ahead of their competitors.(see: Abusing Power - March 16/11)
But beware! Dark economic clouds may be gathering once again as the list of crises grows; not the least of which is Libya's civil war; to nip the world's recovery at its roots, and set the stage for another meltdown.
For the first time in more than 10 years, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank intervened in currency markets on Friday as a direct result of the twin disasters of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which have brought the world's third largest economy to its knees. There are fears of runaway inflation with the developing economies of China and India; geopolitical uprisings and potential oil disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa; debt crises in Europe (most recently in Portugal); and pretty much a stalled recovery in the United States.
And (Alas!) Canada is stuck with the economy of its closest neighbour and very largest trading partner. The news south of the border is somewhat gloomy:
Unemployment in the United-States remains about 9%; growth is slow; States are slashing spending to balance budgets; investment is shaky; the Federal budget proposed by President Obama is a disaster with little prospects of American politicians doing anything constructive about it. The American Dream of owning a home has evaporated...the Census Bureau says that a staggering 12.1% of all residences (18,394,000 homes) are vacant mainly as the result of Foreclosures by lenders and their subsequent repossession by the sheriff. In short, the net worth of America is about $54-Trillion, still 23% below the pre-recession peak of $65.8-Trillion.
Mr. Harper's handlers wish to convey his skillful handling of the last recession and his decisive grasp of erupting world crises as we are quite obviously perched on the edge of another Canadian Federal Election. Budget illusions and voodoo war making on a grand scale ultimately may not serve any of us very well.
Marching into war, even if it's only with a token force of six ageing jet fighters, is the cost we'll be paying for the Conservatives to show (at least if you believe their barrage of TV advertising) the Prime Minister's firm grip on the tiller of power - As was the case when he (single handily) rescued the planet's battered economy a couple of years back.
To no one's surprise, to proffer an illusion on the eve of tabling next Tuesday's Federal Budget confirms it almost seems, despite rhetoric to the contrary, that the Conservatives are preparing to launch into a national election campaign by week's end. It becomes thus safe to conclude that Tuesday's budget will itself be an illusion, without hope of passage, designed to springboard Mr. Harper's ruling party into the election ahead of their competitors.(see: Abusing Power - March 16/11)
But beware! Dark economic clouds may be gathering once again as the list of crises grows; not the least of which is Libya's civil war; to nip the world's recovery at its roots, and set the stage for another meltdown.
For the first time in more than 10 years, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank intervened in currency markets on Friday as a direct result of the twin disasters of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which have brought the world's third largest economy to its knees. There are fears of runaway inflation with the developing economies of China and India; geopolitical uprisings and potential oil disruptions in the Middle East and North Africa; debt crises in Europe (most recently in Portugal); and pretty much a stalled recovery in the United States.
And (Alas!) Canada is stuck with the economy of its closest neighbour and very largest trading partner. The news south of the border is somewhat gloomy:
Unemployment in the United-States remains about 9%; growth is slow; States are slashing spending to balance budgets; investment is shaky; the Federal budget proposed by President Obama is a disaster with little prospects of American politicians doing anything constructive about it. The American Dream of owning a home has evaporated...the Census Bureau says that a staggering 12.1% of all residences (18,394,000 homes) are vacant mainly as the result of Foreclosures by lenders and their subsequent repossession by the sheriff. In short, the net worth of America is about $54-Trillion, still 23% below the pre-recession peak of $65.8-Trillion.
Mr. Harper's handlers wish to convey his skillful handling of the last recession and his decisive grasp of erupting world crises as we are quite obviously perched on the edge of another Canadian Federal Election. Budget illusions and voodoo war making on a grand scale ultimately may not serve any of us very well.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
ABUSING POWER - PARLIAMENT PARALYZED BY CHILDLIKE BEHAVIOUR
I've got to admit about being all set to weigh-in heavily on Canada's parliamentary paralysis over this business of a Federal election in the aftermath of the national budget which will be tabled on Tuesday next.
I still will. But, it may tempered by President Barack Obama's "time-out" to record his College Basketball picks on America's national sports network ESPN, at a time when many believe that the most powerful political leader on earth should really otherwise be occupied with matters of much more urgent nature.
Really, I don't think President Obama needs me to remind him of those current event issues that really matter...Though I find it hard to locate "March (basketball) Madness" near the top of the list.
Okay; that said: Back to Canadian politics. We may wanna be; but unlike the USA it's plenty clear that we're nowhere near the top of any one's list of the planet's influential powers. Regardless, it seems that our Parliamentary democracy has been hijacked, overwhelmed and paralyzed by this illogical death desire to plunge us into a two or three hundred million dollar Federal election which every public poll known to man suggests won't change a damned thing.
The implied suggestion that Her Majesty's loyal opposition thinks, repugnant as it is, that the ethical sludge seeping-out of Parliament Hill is a strategy for winning the election is seriously flawed. Clearly the top-of-mind issue is, and will remain through an election, the nation's economic performance.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been criticised for telling an audience in British Columbia that Japan's unfolding disaster is a reminder of the fragility of the global economy; subsequently adding that the fallout from the devastating earthquake means now is not the time for an election. Few would argue with the Prime Minister's conclusion. But actions speak louder than pious words. His party and his government continue feverish unabated preparations for securing the elusive Parliamentary majority which has eluded the Conservatives since taking office in January of 2006.
When the dust settles following next Tuesday's Federal budget, and if the Government is ultimately defeated in Parliament, the Conservatives will go into the election on the strenght of all of the wonderful things which would (or could) have resulted from what in effect will have been an imaginary budget. It's plenty obvious that is not the frame nor context within which Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals want to campaign. Clearly the Conservatives are vulnerable on their promises to clean-house in the aftermath of the last decade's advertising scandal. It's just that at this juncture the timing appears quite wrong.
I still will. But, it may tempered by President Barack Obama's "time-out" to record his College Basketball picks on America's national sports network ESPN, at a time when many believe that the most powerful political leader on earth should really otherwise be occupied with matters of much more urgent nature.
Really, I don't think President Obama needs me to remind him of those current event issues that really matter...Though I find it hard to locate "March (basketball) Madness" near the top of the list.
Okay; that said: Back to Canadian politics. We may wanna be; but unlike the USA it's plenty clear that we're nowhere near the top of any one's list of the planet's influential powers. Regardless, it seems that our Parliamentary democracy has been hijacked, overwhelmed and paralyzed by this illogical death desire to plunge us into a two or three hundred million dollar Federal election which every public poll known to man suggests won't change a damned thing.
The implied suggestion that Her Majesty's loyal opposition thinks, repugnant as it is, that the ethical sludge seeping-out of Parliament Hill is a strategy for winning the election is seriously flawed. Clearly the top-of-mind issue is, and will remain through an election, the nation's economic performance.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been criticised for telling an audience in British Columbia that Japan's unfolding disaster is a reminder of the fragility of the global economy; subsequently adding that the fallout from the devastating earthquake means now is not the time for an election. Few would argue with the Prime Minister's conclusion. But actions speak louder than pious words. His party and his government continue feverish unabated preparations for securing the elusive Parliamentary majority which has eluded the Conservatives since taking office in January of 2006.
When the dust settles following next Tuesday's Federal budget, and if the Government is ultimately defeated in Parliament, the Conservatives will go into the election on the strenght of all of the wonderful things which would (or could) have resulted from what in effect will have been an imaginary budget. It's plenty obvious that is not the frame nor context within which Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals want to campaign. Clearly the Conservatives are vulnerable on their promises to clean-house in the aftermath of the last decade's advertising scandal. It's just that at this juncture the timing appears quite wrong.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
BE AFRAID; MAYBE EVEN VERY AFRAID
There's unrelenting talk of a spring Federal election in Canada's capital. It's generally anticipated that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's national budget which is expected by mid-March will set the tone for the political discourse leading into a national election.
The general expectation is that "security" will play a significant role in setting the stage for any heated battle for the hearts and minds of the Canadian electorate. It may boil down to a clearly defined three pronged agenda.
The Prime-Minister's visit with President Barack Obama a week ago has already established the benchmark for a debate over "perimeter security": A plan which critics complain could see Canada sacrifice some measure of its sovereignty in order to soften American border restrictions imposed over the threat of cross-border terrorism.
The Flaherty budget itself is expected to offer a road map for Canada's long range "economic security" in the face of the country's spending deficit and mounting national debt. The turmoil since the economic crisis began has not only erased Canada's pre-2008 annual national surplus of close to $15-Billion, but the deficit for the current fiscal year could top $50-Billion.
As defined by the Federal Government, "personal security" too is to be included as a part of the lead-up to a potential election in the spring. the ruling Conservative Government is intensifying it's multi-billion dollar get-tough on crime agenda with currently close to twenty proposed crime and justice bills winding their way through Parliament. Some estimates predict this energized crime policy will cost billions of dollars and significantly increase the prison population. Parliament's budget officer has predicted the crackdown on crime will mean additional expenditures of $2-Billion just to build more prisons.
If adopted by Parliament, the various get-tough-on-crime measures would be implemented despite a 33-year low in Canada's national crime rate. Faced with a looming election the Liberals in opposition have already signalled they are prepared to take this fight over crime directly to Canadians. Just a few days ago Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said one of the proposed Tory measures..."isn't tough on crime, it's dumb on crime."
Measures already implemented in a 3-year-old $400-million plan to put more policemen on the streets of the country have reduced the incidents-per-officer ratio for Canadian police officers to 32. Meaning that each of the country's 69,000 police officers handles an average of just 32 cases per year, the lowest ratio in close to 50 years. But nationally, police operating costs have double to $12.5 Billion / year in just the last 25 years.
In other countries and at other times crime statistics have been used irresponsibly or even misused to argue in support of get tough on crime agendas. Some experts caution that there is frequently little correlation between building more jails, or putting more policemen on the streets and a falling crime rate.
The general expectation is that "security" will play a significant role in setting the stage for any heated battle for the hearts and minds of the Canadian electorate. It may boil down to a clearly defined three pronged agenda.
The Prime-Minister's visit with President Barack Obama a week ago has already established the benchmark for a debate over "perimeter security": A plan which critics complain could see Canada sacrifice some measure of its sovereignty in order to soften American border restrictions imposed over the threat of cross-border terrorism.
The Flaherty budget itself is expected to offer a road map for Canada's long range "economic security" in the face of the country's spending deficit and mounting national debt. The turmoil since the economic crisis began has not only erased Canada's pre-2008 annual national surplus of close to $15-Billion, but the deficit for the current fiscal year could top $50-Billion.
As defined by the Federal Government, "personal security" too is to be included as a part of the lead-up to a potential election in the spring. the ruling Conservative Government is intensifying it's multi-billion dollar get-tough on crime agenda with currently close to twenty proposed crime and justice bills winding their way through Parliament. Some estimates predict this energized crime policy will cost billions of dollars and significantly increase the prison population. Parliament's budget officer has predicted the crackdown on crime will mean additional expenditures of $2-Billion just to build more prisons.
If adopted by Parliament, the various get-tough-on-crime measures would be implemented despite a 33-year low in Canada's national crime rate. Faced with a looming election the Liberals in opposition have already signalled they are prepared to take this fight over crime directly to Canadians. Just a few days ago Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said one of the proposed Tory measures..."isn't tough on crime, it's dumb on crime."
Measures already implemented in a 3-year-old $400-million plan to put more policemen on the streets of the country have reduced the incidents-per-officer ratio for Canadian police officers to 32. Meaning that each of the country's 69,000 police officers handles an average of just 32 cases per year, the lowest ratio in close to 50 years. But nationally, police operating costs have double to $12.5 Billion / year in just the last 25 years.
In other countries and at other times crime statistics have been used irresponsibly or even misused to argue in support of get tough on crime agendas. Some experts caution that there is frequently little correlation between building more jails, or putting more policemen on the streets and a falling crime rate.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
MR. HARPER GOES TO WASHINGTON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
God bless us little ones! Prime Minister Harper travels to the centre of the known universe to bargain from an increasingly weakened hand with President Barack Obama over trade issues...
Pundits, commentators, journalists and politicians from the Great White North are all over themselves about Mr. Harper's three (or so) hour long visit to Washington where, but for Canadians, hardly anyone else will notice...certainly not the American media.
Writing in the "Toronto Star" earlier in the week, columnist James Travers notes..."Canadians are delusional if they believe commerce will again flow freely across the border without significant security compromises."
Precisely why President Obama's adversaries have been so vocal over the release just a few days back (On Tuesday) of an American Government Accountability Office (GAO) report which appears to highlight serious lapses of security along vast expanses of the Canada - United States border. Released just three days before Mr. Harper goes to Washington the GAO report feeds the generally held paranoia south of the 49th parallel of the myth that crazies from Canada were responsible for the attacks of 9/11; and may yet be ready to strike once more if given the right opportunity.
As long as our American partners remain edgy, they are going to keep coming-up with new ideas to "thicken-up" their side of the border. The world's largest trading partnership which is worth more than $1-million every two minutes 24/7 is, as Jim Travers notes..."far more important to us than to them." Given the prevailing paranoia since the events of September 2001 the cross-border test of interests has condensed (in Travers' description) into a bumper sticker: "Security trumps trade."
Liberal Senator Colin Kenny speaks with an admittedly partisan bias; but he is not wrong to claim that any demand on the Obama administration to ease restrictions on Canadian goods, services and visitors entering the United-States will fall on deaf ears unless the Americans are somehow convinced that Canada is spending a whole whack more on intelligence, front-line border inspectors and electronic screening.
From Canada's perspective that likely means difficult, perhaps tough, compromises on matters of personal privacy and civil liberties; as well as loosening-up national rights of sovereignty at the same time that our country attempts to preserve its claims over the resources of the arctic and Canada's ownership of the northwest passage. Both of which are also of considerable interest to our American neighbours.
That is why the very best Mr. Harper will achieve over his brief visit with the President is a compromise comprehensive shared review of our borders' security to be carried-out by a mid-level working group over the next 6 months or so. Since Canadians are just about the only ones who care about the issue; in the event an of eventual spring Federal Election at home, Mr. Harper has thus bought time to once more "back-burner" the issue, while he bids to sell his partisan supporters on what may be one more flawed attempt to appease America's pursuit of destiny.
Pundits, commentators, journalists and politicians from the Great White North are all over themselves about Mr. Harper's three (or so) hour long visit to Washington where, but for Canadians, hardly anyone else will notice...certainly not the American media.
Writing in the "Toronto Star" earlier in the week, columnist James Travers notes..."Canadians are delusional if they believe commerce will again flow freely across the border without significant security compromises."
Precisely why President Obama's adversaries have been so vocal over the release just a few days back (On Tuesday) of an American Government Accountability Office (GAO) report which appears to highlight serious lapses of security along vast expanses of the Canada - United States border. Released just three days before Mr. Harper goes to Washington the GAO report feeds the generally held paranoia south of the 49th parallel of the myth that crazies from Canada were responsible for the attacks of 9/11; and may yet be ready to strike once more if given the right opportunity.
As long as our American partners remain edgy, they are going to keep coming-up with new ideas to "thicken-up" their side of the border. The world's largest trading partnership which is worth more than $1-million every two minutes 24/7 is, as Jim Travers notes..."far more important to us than to them." Given the prevailing paranoia since the events of September 2001 the cross-border test of interests has condensed (in Travers' description) into a bumper sticker: "Security trumps trade."
Liberal Senator Colin Kenny speaks with an admittedly partisan bias; but he is not wrong to claim that any demand on the Obama administration to ease restrictions on Canadian goods, services and visitors entering the United-States will fall on deaf ears unless the Americans are somehow convinced that Canada is spending a whole whack more on intelligence, front-line border inspectors and electronic screening.
From Canada's perspective that likely means difficult, perhaps tough, compromises on matters of personal privacy and civil liberties; as well as loosening-up national rights of sovereignty at the same time that our country attempts to preserve its claims over the resources of the arctic and Canada's ownership of the northwest passage. Both of which are also of considerable interest to our American neighbours.
That is why the very best Mr. Harper will achieve over his brief visit with the President is a compromise comprehensive shared review of our borders' security to be carried-out by a mid-level working group over the next 6 months or so. Since Canadians are just about the only ones who care about the issue; in the event an of eventual spring Federal Election at home, Mr. Harper has thus bought time to once more "back-burner" the issue, while he bids to sell his partisan supporters on what may be one more flawed attempt to appease America's pursuit of destiny.
Friday, January 28, 2011
DOWN THIS HIGHWAY BEFORE
Far better qualified pundits and commentators than I have spent the last several days analyzing the motives behind a series of offensive attack advertising from Canada's major political players; the ruling Conservatives and the Liberals opposite.
The level to which these most recent ads have descended has offended many Canadians who have watched from a distance how bitter partisanship has split the United States, derailed many legislative initiatives, and deadlocked the American Congress.
The general expectation is that this bitterness amongst Canadian Parliamentarians will peak around the time of the Federal Government's budget expected in the next 6 (or so) weeks. Most likely culminating into our third National election since January of 2006.
If that is the case, (perhaps it explains the unrelenting bitterness of the current advertising campaigns), Federal politicians will have to vie for the attention of an electorate already engaged in enormously significant provincial election activities in British-Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland-and-Labrador, at least. Provinces which represent about two-thirds of Canada's population and its most significant economic entities.
As demonstrated repeatedly over the last 50 years; the Province of Quebec may offer the most significant challenge to the nation's well being. The popularity of Premier Jean Charest's government has collapsed amidst a litany of scandals and alleged wrong-doing. And in Quebec, the eventual demise of the ruling Liberals, means the election of an avowed separatist Parti-Quebecois government. No surprise then that the Federalist branch of the Separatists, Gilles Duceppe's "Bloc Quebecois" have been threatening to defeat the Federal budget unless the Province of Quebec secures a $5-Billion transfer payment from Ottawa, an NHL hockey arena in Quebec City and Lord knows what else by the time the threats, extortion and intimidation end. Mr. Duceppe, who controls his "Bloc" caucus in Ottawa more tightly than the Prime Minister does the Tories, may just possibly have only one other contending challenger for his hostility towards the country.
(Caution: Offensive language)
Being "Canadian" is a growing insignificant way for Quebecois to define themselves. Just seven in one hundred (7%) of francophone Quebecers define themselves as Canadian first according to a survey released in December by Leger Marketing. The survey which was done for the Association for Canadian Studies concludes that more than 60% of Quebec francophone define themselves as Quebecois first or exclusively.
Just slightly more than 30 years after the first Independence Referendum, and 15 year after the last; a significant majority of French speaking residents of Quebec have disengaged from Federal politics; detached from Canada; and have been increasingly distancing themselves from their emotional ties with the rest of the country. It is a cause which should be of enormous concern for the future of national unity and which demands the uppermost attention of our political leaders who instead have been clobbering each other with unrelated and really offensive attack ads.
A former Canadian Army reservist who served at military bases in Thunder Bay and at Gagetown, New Brunswick; "Major" Serge Provost heads the "Milice Patriotique Quebecoise", a shadowy separatist militia headquartered in east end Montreal where it opened its first recruitment centre in November. Though Mr. Provost says even some hardcore Separatists are uncomfortable with his organization, he claims about 200 members and about 1700 "Face Book" friends apparently willing to take combat training, life saving skills and wilderness survival courses.
Just this month, civil unrest has ripped through Tunisia, Egypt and other relatively quiet parts of the world. At the same time and without fanfare, the U.S. Homeland Security Department has abandoned the "Terror Threat Colour Code" (green-blue-yellow-orange and red) instituted and popularized by the Bush Administration in the immediate aftermath of the September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. Perhaps we should ask the Americans if we can borrow the multi-coloured lights: Just in case.
The level to which these most recent ads have descended has offended many Canadians who have watched from a distance how bitter partisanship has split the United States, derailed many legislative initiatives, and deadlocked the American Congress.
The general expectation is that this bitterness amongst Canadian Parliamentarians will peak around the time of the Federal Government's budget expected in the next 6 (or so) weeks. Most likely culminating into our third National election since January of 2006.
If that is the case, (perhaps it explains the unrelenting bitterness of the current advertising campaigns), Federal politicians will have to vie for the attention of an electorate already engaged in enormously significant provincial election activities in British-Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland-and-Labrador, at least. Provinces which represent about two-thirds of Canada's population and its most significant economic entities.
As demonstrated repeatedly over the last 50 years; the Province of Quebec may offer the most significant challenge to the nation's well being. The popularity of Premier Jean Charest's government has collapsed amidst a litany of scandals and alleged wrong-doing. And in Quebec, the eventual demise of the ruling Liberals, means the election of an avowed separatist Parti-Quebecois government. No surprise then that the Federalist branch of the Separatists, Gilles Duceppe's "Bloc Quebecois" have been threatening to defeat the Federal budget unless the Province of Quebec secures a $5-Billion transfer payment from Ottawa, an NHL hockey arena in Quebec City and Lord knows what else by the time the threats, extortion and intimidation end. Mr. Duceppe, who controls his "Bloc" caucus in Ottawa more tightly than the Prime Minister does the Tories, may just possibly have only one other contending challenger for his hostility towards the country.
(Caution: Offensive language)
Being "Canadian" is a growing insignificant way for Quebecois to define themselves. Just seven in one hundred (7%) of francophone Quebecers define themselves as Canadian first according to a survey released in December by Leger Marketing. The survey which was done for the Association for Canadian Studies concludes that more than 60% of Quebec francophone define themselves as Quebecois first or exclusively.
Just slightly more than 30 years after the first Independence Referendum, and 15 year after the last; a significant majority of French speaking residents of Quebec have disengaged from Federal politics; detached from Canada; and have been increasingly distancing themselves from their emotional ties with the rest of the country. It is a cause which should be of enormous concern for the future of national unity and which demands the uppermost attention of our political leaders who instead have been clobbering each other with unrelated and really offensive attack ads.
A former Canadian Army reservist who served at military bases in Thunder Bay and at Gagetown, New Brunswick; "Major" Serge Provost heads the "Milice Patriotique Quebecoise", a shadowy separatist militia headquartered in east end Montreal where it opened its first recruitment centre in November. Though Mr. Provost says even some hardcore Separatists are uncomfortable with his organization, he claims about 200 members and about 1700 "Face Book" friends apparently willing to take combat training, life saving skills and wilderness survival courses.
Just this month, civil unrest has ripped through Tunisia, Egypt and other relatively quiet parts of the world. At the same time and without fanfare, the U.S. Homeland Security Department has abandoned the "Terror Threat Colour Code" (green-blue-yellow-orange and red) instituted and popularized by the Bush Administration in the immediate aftermath of the September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. Perhaps we should ask the Americans if we can borrow the multi-coloured lights: Just in case.
Friday, January 21, 2011
COMMUNICATING WAS SLOWER BACK THEN.
If there is one major difference between other times in the past in which political expression was an "ugly" business, perhaps it lies in the technology of our modern speech.
Journalist Tim Rutten of the Los Angeles Times commented just recently that we live in an era which is saturated with communications of all sorts. Something which though it has resulted in radically democratizing speech, has also lifted away the veil of restraint as well as previous standards of responsibility.
He explains that in the not too distant past, political rhetoric was somewhat buffered by the constraints of time and distance. But since the development of 24 hour television news in the latter half of the last century, and ever more so with the advent of "new" media; when the political discourse turns ugly it seems to be all around us...because it is. To quote Rutten: "The Internet has been a great enabler of incivility, not only because it so easily allows the anonymous or pseudonymous expression of the most violent or hurtful opinions, but because it reinforces the illusion of a virtual world in which there is nothing but speech."
There are enormous advantages to the technology which is changing the playing field of North American politics, but in this new environment the need for civility and restraint are being watered-down and may be darn close to elimination. These days it seems that the heated rhetoric and bitter divisive accusations no longer have to account for the actual consequences of a real (rather than virtual) world.
Sadly, it's little wonder that at a time when it may be most essential, politics looks very much like a business in decline as Maclean's columnist Andrew Coyne points-out in a recent post: "The figures are stark...voter turn-out in recent elections has hovered around the 60 per cent mark." Coyne notes that a generation ago the winning party in an election, Conservative or Liberal, could consistently persuade 30% or more of eligible voters for their support. In recent elections that's fallen to 22 or 23 per cent for the "winning" party. In the election of 2008 the total share of eligible electors who voted Liberal was 15%.
Any other business or industry experiencing such a catastrophic decline Coyne says would be turning itself inside-out trying to figure out what it's doing wrong. With the threat of a national election looming yet once more, it seems the best Canada's two mainstream national parties can muster is instead increasingly destructive negative advertising which as one pundit put it are..."so vicious they actually give attack adds a bad name." - The pundit by the way is Gerry Nicholls, an Ottawa consultant who from 1998 to 2002 was Stephen Harper's Vice-President when the Prime Minister led the "National Citizens' Coalition." - To be blunt Nicholls says..."they are nothing but mean-spirited, personal attacks that go way beyond the pale."
The problem with politics in which every question, issue, situation, mannerism and motive is framed in trite, abusive, angry and negative values is that it makes compromise impossible. Debate in politics demands respect and civility. When important relevant issues essential to the nation's future are worked-up into a virtual vitriolic blood-drenched confrontation; understanding and compromise become unattainable.
Instant information may be changing the world. But it is the "high road" of ennobling and balanced political rhetoric which will earn respect and resolve impasse. Regardless of how we communicate now or into the future, Canadians must demand and settle for no less than wise, respectful and humane discourse of their politicians and leaders.
Journalist Tim Rutten of the Los Angeles Times commented just recently that we live in an era which is saturated with communications of all sorts. Something which though it has resulted in radically democratizing speech, has also lifted away the veil of restraint as well as previous standards of responsibility.
He explains that in the not too distant past, political rhetoric was somewhat buffered by the constraints of time and distance. But since the development of 24 hour television news in the latter half of the last century, and ever more so with the advent of "new" media; when the political discourse turns ugly it seems to be all around us...because it is. To quote Rutten: "The Internet has been a great enabler of incivility, not only because it so easily allows the anonymous or pseudonymous expression of the most violent or hurtful opinions, but because it reinforces the illusion of a virtual world in which there is nothing but speech."
There are enormous advantages to the technology which is changing the playing field of North American politics, but in this new environment the need for civility and restraint are being watered-down and may be darn close to elimination. These days it seems that the heated rhetoric and bitter divisive accusations no longer have to account for the actual consequences of a real (rather than virtual) world.
Sadly, it's little wonder that at a time when it may be most essential, politics looks very much like a business in decline as Maclean's columnist Andrew Coyne points-out in a recent post: "The figures are stark...voter turn-out in recent elections has hovered around the 60 per cent mark." Coyne notes that a generation ago the winning party in an election, Conservative or Liberal, could consistently persuade 30% or more of eligible voters for their support. In recent elections that's fallen to 22 or 23 per cent for the "winning" party. In the election of 2008 the total share of eligible electors who voted Liberal was 15%.
Any other business or industry experiencing such a catastrophic decline Coyne says would be turning itself inside-out trying to figure out what it's doing wrong. With the threat of a national election looming yet once more, it seems the best Canada's two mainstream national parties can muster is instead increasingly destructive negative advertising which as one pundit put it are..."so vicious they actually give attack adds a bad name." - The pundit by the way is Gerry Nicholls, an Ottawa consultant who from 1998 to 2002 was Stephen Harper's Vice-President when the Prime Minister led the "National Citizens' Coalition." - To be blunt Nicholls says..."they are nothing but mean-spirited, personal attacks that go way beyond the pale."
The problem with politics in which every question, issue, situation, mannerism and motive is framed in trite, abusive, angry and negative values is that it makes compromise impossible. Debate in politics demands respect and civility. When important relevant issues essential to the nation's future are worked-up into a virtual vitriolic blood-drenched confrontation; understanding and compromise become unattainable.
Instant information may be changing the world. But it is the "high road" of ennobling and balanced political rhetoric which will earn respect and resolve impasse. Regardless of how we communicate now or into the future, Canadians must demand and settle for no less than wise, respectful and humane discourse of their politicians and leaders.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
SUPPOSE YOUR "WIKI" LEAKS
The Canadian Security intelligence Service (CSIS) has a list of people "permanently bound to secrecy" under the country's Security Information Act. I am not one of them.
In the nation's capital nothing happens quite by accident. All the more so when a "control freak" is at the helm, as others have described the Prime Minister, Stephen Harper.
Last fall when a draft communications plan to sell Canadians on a secretive agreement with the Obama Administration titled: "Beyond The Border; A Shared Vision For Perimeter Security And Competitiveness" was leaked to the media, Canada's government went into overdrive to deny the agreement was set for President Obama and Prime Minister Harper signatures in January. It's an omnibus agreement which aims to facilitate the cross-border transfer of goods and services between our two nations in the aftermath of the so-called "thickening of our 5000 mile border" since the savage terrorist attacks of 9/11.
Supporters and proponents of the deal say a North American perimeter security pact is the obvious next logical step. Despite its reluctance to confirm the details of any agreement in the works, the Federal Government has trotted-out a number of high profile public supporters of the "shared vision" including five former Canadian Ambassadors to Washington and several former Government officials involved in the Free-Trade Accord of the 1980's and its subsequent follow-up evolution the "North American Free Trade Accord" (NAFTA.)
Of course the Devil is always in details. Even though the Harper Government has been reluctant to clarify just what is involved in this new tentative deal with the American Government, the widely anticipated "tete-a-tete" between President Obama and Prime Minister Harper has been delayed while officials grapple with the details of the accord. There are a couple of "sticky" issues, and recent seemingly unrelated developments within Canada, may (in fact) be designed to allay American demands and / or concerns. They involve both Canada's northernmost border, as well as our southern border along the United States.
U.S. Homeland Security has identified a serious flaw in the country's strict control over who enters and leaves American soil: It is done at airports and seaports, but there is no way to track who is leaving the United States along the dozens of land-routes which enter into Canada. The fear is that terrorists, extremists and others who would do harm can drive across the border and grab a flight out of Canada without knowledge. As an essential part of the "perimeter" agreement, Homeland Security wants the Canada Border Services Agency's (CBSA) list of who is entering the country from the United States. The issue could be directly related to the Harper Government's adamant rejection of additional landing rights in Canada for the Middle Eastern air carriers "Emirates Airline" and "Etihad Airways." The resulting diplomatic rift has led to the cancellation of Canada's nine-year military lease on a Middle Eastern airfield used to transfer troops and supplies to Afghanistan; as well as unprecedented Visa restrictions for Canadians wishing to enter the United Arab Emirates.
Up at the Arctic border, America's giant Massachusetts based defence contractor Raytheon covets the management contract for the North Warning System (NWS). On 9/11, NORAD lost significant minutes in tracking the five hijacked passenger jets over the United States because it's Radars, like the guns of France's fabled "Maginot Line," were aimed "out of country" rather than inward...I digress. The remotely monitored "North Warning System" Radars built in 1992 are controlled from an underground bunker in North Bay, Ontario, but it's a joint Alberta and first nations (Inuit) firm that holds the maintenance contract. Raytheon has its sights on the contract worth about $70-Million per year of which about 60% is paid by the American Government. It expires in the fall. The 47 automated Radar sites are located on Inuit land, and the Aboriginal have invoked land-claims agreements to kibosh the Harper Government's international tender-call.
The volatility intensifies if you add a potential Canadian Federal election in the not too distant future. Critics and opponents of the proposed "perimeter security" agreement are claiming already that the additional collaboration with Homeland Security and the U.S. Defence establishment poses serious Canadian privacy and sovereignty concerns.
Ultimately improving the flow of goods and services between our two countries is a worthwhile objective. However in its current context, the political cost may be beyond any national party's ability to withstand once the details see the light of day.
In the nation's capital nothing happens quite by accident. All the more so when a "control freak" is at the helm, as others have described the Prime Minister, Stephen Harper.
Last fall when a draft communications plan to sell Canadians on a secretive agreement with the Obama Administration titled: "Beyond The Border; A Shared Vision For Perimeter Security And Competitiveness" was leaked to the media, Canada's government went into overdrive to deny the agreement was set for President Obama and Prime Minister Harper signatures in January. It's an omnibus agreement which aims to facilitate the cross-border transfer of goods and services between our two nations in the aftermath of the so-called "thickening of our 5000 mile border" since the savage terrorist attacks of 9/11.
Supporters and proponents of the deal say a North American perimeter security pact is the obvious next logical step. Despite its reluctance to confirm the details of any agreement in the works, the Federal Government has trotted-out a number of high profile public supporters of the "shared vision" including five former Canadian Ambassadors to Washington and several former Government officials involved in the Free-Trade Accord of the 1980's and its subsequent follow-up evolution the "North American Free Trade Accord" (NAFTA.)
Of course the Devil is always in details. Even though the Harper Government has been reluctant to clarify just what is involved in this new tentative deal with the American Government, the widely anticipated "tete-a-tete" between President Obama and Prime Minister Harper has been delayed while officials grapple with the details of the accord. There are a couple of "sticky" issues, and recent seemingly unrelated developments within Canada, may (in fact) be designed to allay American demands and / or concerns. They involve both Canada's northernmost border, as well as our southern border along the United States.
U.S. Homeland Security has identified a serious flaw in the country's strict control over who enters and leaves American soil: It is done at airports and seaports, but there is no way to track who is leaving the United States along the dozens of land-routes which enter into Canada. The fear is that terrorists, extremists and others who would do harm can drive across the border and grab a flight out of Canada without knowledge. As an essential part of the "perimeter" agreement, Homeland Security wants the Canada Border Services Agency's (CBSA) list of who is entering the country from the United States. The issue could be directly related to the Harper Government's adamant rejection of additional landing rights in Canada for the Middle Eastern air carriers "Emirates Airline" and "Etihad Airways." The resulting diplomatic rift has led to the cancellation of Canada's nine-year military lease on a Middle Eastern airfield used to transfer troops and supplies to Afghanistan; as well as unprecedented Visa restrictions for Canadians wishing to enter the United Arab Emirates.
Up at the Arctic border, America's giant Massachusetts based defence contractor Raytheon covets the management contract for the North Warning System (NWS). On 9/11, NORAD lost significant minutes in tracking the five hijacked passenger jets over the United States because it's Radars, like the guns of France's fabled "Maginot Line," were aimed "out of country" rather than inward...I digress. The remotely monitored "North Warning System" Radars built in 1992 are controlled from an underground bunker in North Bay, Ontario, but it's a joint Alberta and first nations (Inuit) firm that holds the maintenance contract. Raytheon has its sights on the contract worth about $70-Million per year of which about 60% is paid by the American Government. It expires in the fall. The 47 automated Radar sites are located on Inuit land, and the Aboriginal have invoked land-claims agreements to kibosh the Harper Government's international tender-call.
The volatility intensifies if you add a potential Canadian Federal election in the not too distant future. Critics and opponents of the proposed "perimeter security" agreement are claiming already that the additional collaboration with Homeland Security and the U.S. Defence establishment poses serious Canadian privacy and sovereignty concerns.
Ultimately improving the flow of goods and services between our two countries is a worthwhile objective. However in its current context, the political cost may be beyond any national party's ability to withstand once the details see the light of day.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
POLITICS IN WONDERLAND
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is busy re-arranging his Cabinet chairs aboard the HMCS Tory, Canada's ship of state. South of the 49th parallel, American legislators are returning to Congress.
In both nations political party leaders are sharpening their focus on upcoming Federal elections. That, and the notion of fixed election dates is about where the similarities end. To digress: America's fixed election date is enshrined in the Constitution of 1776. In Canada, although the law to fix Federal election dates was adopted by Parliament in the winter of 2006, politicians on both sides of the aisle citing prorogation(s); minority governments; dysfunctional Parliaments; bad economy; good economy; (the list grows) have so far circumvented their own law, and there are every indications to conclude they'll do it again before 2011 ends.
Since Prime Minister Harper's first minority Conservative government was elected in January of 2006, Canada has been in perpetual general election mode. Down south of the border the Obama administration faces the daunting task of rebuilding its battered reputation as the race to the November 2012 Presidential election launches against an emboldened adversarial Congress. The Republicans have welcomed more than a dozen "Tea Party" supporters into the ranks as a result of the recent mid-term face-off. A "Tea Party tidal wave" as described by the movement's darling; former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Over the holiday break, publishers of President George W. Bush's biography "Decision Points" confirmed the tome had sold two-million copies; a favourable comparison with Mrs. Palin's "Faith, Family, Country" which has topped 1.5 million copies. Cynics scoff that it's toss-up which is the better door-stopper. Either way, with the holidays over it's likely what's left in the bookstores will soon find the way to the remainder bins...I digress!
Quite unlike Prime Minister Harper who knows exactly who he is politically and what he wants; President Obama's problems are exacerbated as he seems to still be working through the political equation of who 'he' is? - As perhaps are the American people. His antagonists will attempt to make the most of the dilemma. In the process the Republicans and their Tea Party associates must walk a fine line and not overreach and "scare little kids and pets" - Perhaps defining a situation which on the northern side of the border may explain why Stephen Harper and the Tories have been mired in minority territory for four years.
Critics have described the legacy of President George W. Bush as a stewardship of illusions. The Edith Piaf of Presidential policy as one put it: "He regrets nothing!" - It seems also quite clear to those same analysts that Mrs. Palin is not qualified to be President of the United-States. Many believe that the talk about a potential bid for the high office was just to help "move books" when "Faith, Family, Country" hit the shelves early last fall.
Somewhat like bookends, the frame of the American Presidential race for the next 20 months seems abundantly defined. One could wish only that Canada's seemingly never ending struggle for the "hearts and minds" of the electorate was so crystal clear.
In both nations political party leaders are sharpening their focus on upcoming Federal elections. That, and the notion of fixed election dates is about where the similarities end. To digress: America's fixed election date is enshrined in the Constitution of 1776. In Canada, although the law to fix Federal election dates was adopted by Parliament in the winter of 2006, politicians on both sides of the aisle citing prorogation(s); minority governments; dysfunctional Parliaments; bad economy; good economy; (the list grows) have so far circumvented their own law, and there are every indications to conclude they'll do it again before 2011 ends.
Since Prime Minister Harper's first minority Conservative government was elected in January of 2006, Canada has been in perpetual general election mode. Down south of the border the Obama administration faces the daunting task of rebuilding its battered reputation as the race to the November 2012 Presidential election launches against an emboldened adversarial Congress. The Republicans have welcomed more than a dozen "Tea Party" supporters into the ranks as a result of the recent mid-term face-off. A "Tea Party tidal wave" as described by the movement's darling; former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Over the holiday break, publishers of President George W. Bush's biography "Decision Points" confirmed the tome had sold two-million copies; a favourable comparison with Mrs. Palin's "Faith, Family, Country" which has topped 1.5 million copies. Cynics scoff that it's toss-up which is the better door-stopper. Either way, with the holidays over it's likely what's left in the bookstores will soon find the way to the remainder bins...I digress!
Quite unlike Prime Minister Harper who knows exactly who he is politically and what he wants; President Obama's problems are exacerbated as he seems to still be working through the political equation of who 'he' is? - As perhaps are the American people. His antagonists will attempt to make the most of the dilemma. In the process the Republicans and their Tea Party associates must walk a fine line and not overreach and "scare little kids and pets" - Perhaps defining a situation which on the northern side of the border may explain why Stephen Harper and the Tories have been mired in minority territory for four years.
Critics have described the legacy of President George W. Bush as a stewardship of illusions. The Edith Piaf of Presidential policy as one put it: "He regrets nothing!" - It seems also quite clear to those same analysts that Mrs. Palin is not qualified to be President of the United-States. Many believe that the talk about a potential bid for the high office was just to help "move books" when "Faith, Family, Country" hit the shelves early last fall.
Somewhat like bookends, the frame of the American Presidential race for the next 20 months seems abundantly defined. One could wish only that Canada's seemingly never ending struggle for the "hearts and minds" of the electorate was so crystal clear.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
GOLD, MYRRH AND PERIMETER SECURITY
Though national polls are at best nebulous; the 40th session of Parliament is adjourned for the holidays. This time without sight of any ill-conceived notion of a third "Prorogation" in as many years.
Not because 2010 was without stumbling blocks and potentially disastrous issues for the Harper minority government. It's just that Canadians have been blessed with such weak and ineffective politicians opposite that the usual couple of days of "stonewalling" in Question Period have been generally sufficient to survive any threats of a ruling party disaster. To wit:
In the aftermath of "Prorogation Part II" a year ago, ostensibly because Mr. Harper wanted to focus on the Government's judicious response to the world's economic crisis: The nation was ridiculed for spending more than a billion dollars on the Toronto G-8 and G-20 Summit meetings. We became engaged in a doubtful and evermore expensive deal to purchase new generation F-35 stealth fighter jets "sans" bidding process. For the first time in 60 years, we lost a bid to seat a Canadian on the Security Council of the United-Nations. We were unceremoniously kicked-out of a secretive Afghan war re-supply airbase located in the United Arab Emirates, while at the same time abandoning a firm commitment to leave Afghanistan in 2011...And the ever widening circle of patronage appointments from the Senate on down continued unabated. To say nothing of the accusations of patronage pay-offs levelled against contractors involved with the multi-million dollar renovations of Ottawa's Parliament Hill edifices; and the fiasco involving the demise of the former Minister for the Status of Women, Helena Guergis; along with her husband, the former Tory Caucus Chair, Rahim Jaffer.
This week's release of the latest Canadian-Press / Harris Decima public opinion poll which pegs the Conservatives (31%) and the Liberals (29%) in a statistical dead-heat of decided voters undoubtedly portends more of the same in the new year. Polls earlier this fall had been somewhat kinder to the Tories, leading some pundits and observers to predict a potential February Federal Budget..."that no opposition party can support" would force an election at just about the same time the right leaning "Sun News" TV channel hits the airwaves. Of course the reality is that none of the three party heads: Mr. Harper; Michael Ignatieff nor Jack Layton can afford any chance on another minority election result in 2011, without major ramifications to their leadership of the respective national parties. Another minority government for Mr. Harper would be his 4th unsuccessful bid to claim electoral majority...and a loss for Mr. Ignatieff would surely spell the end of his leadership aspirations for the "natural governing" party of the last century.
Alas, looming larger perhaps than any potential "election budget" is the widespread speculation there will be no public debate over: "Beyond The Border: A Shared Vision For Perimeter Security And Competitiveness" - the omnibus continental security agreement which Prime Minister Harper and President Barack Obama will announce when the two meet in Washington next month. At this Christmas' eve it seems that the battle for the hearts and minds of Canadians has already been engaged with five former Canadian Ambassadors to the United States; Derek Burney, Raymond Chretien, Michael Kergin, Frank McKenna and Michael Wilson (1999-2009) publicly supporting the beneficial trade values of the deal which hasn't yet been announced. No one doubts the well meaning intentions of these five senior Statesmen. Canada's economy is fully dependant on the $2-Billion per day in trade between our two countries - The world's largest trading relationship - and the ramifications of America's intense paranoia over border security and the threat of terrorism. But; regardless of the content of the secretively negotiated deal between Mr. Harper's Government and the Obama Administration, it would be foolish of us to assume that henceforth the 26 million Canadians who enter the United States each year will have an easier time getting in. In return for assisting our American neighbours build concentric circles of security around the contiguous 48 states, the best we may be able to hope for is that we may be spared an Arizona/Mexico-style perimeter fence along our shared border.
Not because 2010 was without stumbling blocks and potentially disastrous issues for the Harper minority government. It's just that Canadians have been blessed with such weak and ineffective politicians opposite that the usual couple of days of "stonewalling" in Question Period have been generally sufficient to survive any threats of a ruling party disaster. To wit:
In the aftermath of "Prorogation Part II" a year ago, ostensibly because Mr. Harper wanted to focus on the Government's judicious response to the world's economic crisis: The nation was ridiculed for spending more than a billion dollars on the Toronto G-8 and G-20 Summit meetings. We became engaged in a doubtful and evermore expensive deal to purchase new generation F-35 stealth fighter jets "sans" bidding process. For the first time in 60 years, we lost a bid to seat a Canadian on the Security Council of the United-Nations. We were unceremoniously kicked-out of a secretive Afghan war re-supply airbase located in the United Arab Emirates, while at the same time abandoning a firm commitment to leave Afghanistan in 2011...And the ever widening circle of patronage appointments from the Senate on down continued unabated. To say nothing of the accusations of patronage pay-offs levelled against contractors involved with the multi-million dollar renovations of Ottawa's Parliament Hill edifices; and the fiasco involving the demise of the former Minister for the Status of Women, Helena Guergis; along with her husband, the former Tory Caucus Chair, Rahim Jaffer.
This week's release of the latest Canadian-Press / Harris Decima public opinion poll which pegs the Conservatives (31%) and the Liberals (29%) in a statistical dead-heat of decided voters undoubtedly portends more of the same in the new year. Polls earlier this fall had been somewhat kinder to the Tories, leading some pundits and observers to predict a potential February Federal Budget..."that no opposition party can support" would force an election at just about the same time the right leaning "Sun News" TV channel hits the airwaves. Of course the reality is that none of the three party heads: Mr. Harper; Michael Ignatieff nor Jack Layton can afford any chance on another minority election result in 2011, without major ramifications to their leadership of the respective national parties. Another minority government for Mr. Harper would be his 4th unsuccessful bid to claim electoral majority...and a loss for Mr. Ignatieff would surely spell the end of his leadership aspirations for the "natural governing" party of the last century.
Alas, looming larger perhaps than any potential "election budget" is the widespread speculation there will be no public debate over: "Beyond The Border: A Shared Vision For Perimeter Security And Competitiveness" - the omnibus continental security agreement which Prime Minister Harper and President Barack Obama will announce when the two meet in Washington next month. At this Christmas' eve it seems that the battle for the hearts and minds of Canadians has already been engaged with five former Canadian Ambassadors to the United States; Derek Burney, Raymond Chretien, Michael Kergin, Frank McKenna and Michael Wilson (1999-2009) publicly supporting the beneficial trade values of the deal which hasn't yet been announced. No one doubts the well meaning intentions of these five senior Statesmen. Canada's economy is fully dependant on the $2-Billion per day in trade between our two countries - The world's largest trading relationship - and the ramifications of America's intense paranoia over border security and the threat of terrorism. But; regardless of the content of the secretively negotiated deal between Mr. Harper's Government and the Obama Administration, it would be foolish of us to assume that henceforth the 26 million Canadians who enter the United States each year will have an easier time getting in. In return for assisting our American neighbours build concentric circles of security around the contiguous 48 states, the best we may be able to hope for is that we may be spared an Arizona/Mexico-style perimeter fence along our shared border.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
POWER TO THE PEOPLE
In politics, as in the media business, it's important to pick your battles. - Ever- more so when the two intersect.
While they certainly haven't hoisted the white flag, nor are they about to: The folks at Sun TV News are reeling over the abrupt departure of their Vice-President, Kory Teneycke, amidst allegations of dirty-tricks played against the U.S. based group Avaaz which has been sponsoring a web-based petition against the right wing television network plans.
Mr. Teneycke's resignation came within hours of a request by Avaaz to Ottawa and Ontario Provincial Police to probe the identity of the individuals responsible for adding "fraudulent" signatures to their on-line petition - "Stop Fox News North" - which has been signed (legitimately) by more than 80,000 people.
Prior to his flame-out, Kory Teneycke who is Prime Minister Harper's former Director of Communications, brought a lot of attention to the Sun Media proposal. But it's owners, Quebecor could ill afford to wait for a criminal investigation which may involve one (or more) of Sun-TV principals before pushing him overboard.
In fact, the departure may offer some unexpected welcome relief to the Prime Minister
and his entourage on the eve of the resumption of the Parliamentary fall session next week. Kory Teneycke's past association and close ties with Mr. Harper and his government were becoming problematic distractions as the Sun-TV News application winds its way through the regulatory process before the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC).
Adding to the volatile mix was Quebecor's direct involvement through its President, Pierre Karl Peladeau, in a bid to return the NHL to Quebec City. That bid hinges on construction of a large ice arena complex in Quebec, an issue over which a public backlash forced the Prime Minister to back away from, just a few days ago. Mr. Harper it seems has now been favoured with additional distancing both from Sun-TV and Mr. Peladeau. Lest I digress: The new "grand-fromage" at Sun-TV is Luc Lavoie who was Prime Minister Brian Mulroney's Director of Communications...but at least that's all a few years back!
Mr. Harper, who has obsessive control over what the media says about him, the Conservatives and his government, will now be freer to concentrate on the substantive matters set to explode during Question Period over the next several weeks. Specifically the purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike stealth fighter jets; abolishing the long-gun registry; and any potential fall-out from Auditor-General Sheila Fraser's look into value for the money spent on the "Economic Action Plan" which kick-started the economy.
The recent advent of "working" coalition governments in the United-Kingdom and Australia - parliamentary systems just like-ours - may be seen to both favour and encourage the Liberals and the New Democrats to resume discussions over forcing an election once the budget is set at the end of winter. Last spring there were widespread rumours in Ottawa that just such talks were being encouraged by former Liberal P.M. Jean Chretien and the former leader of the NDP, Ed Broadbent. After a summer of some discontent, there is no reason to believe those embers aren't still burning.
If Mr. Harper who's minority government has been in power almost five years is to concentrate on the country's issues of substance. Then he can ill afford to have control over "the plot" drift away from his grasp over the mundane.
While they certainly haven't hoisted the white flag, nor are they about to: The folks at Sun TV News are reeling over the abrupt departure of their Vice-President, Kory Teneycke, amidst allegations of dirty-tricks played against the U.S. based group Avaaz which has been sponsoring a web-based petition against the right wing television network plans.
Mr. Teneycke's resignation came within hours of a request by Avaaz to Ottawa and Ontario Provincial Police to probe the identity of the individuals responsible for adding "fraudulent" signatures to their on-line petition - "Stop Fox News North" - which has been signed (legitimately) by more than 80,000 people.
Prior to his flame-out, Kory Teneycke who is Prime Minister Harper's former Director of Communications, brought a lot of attention to the Sun Media proposal. But it's owners, Quebecor could ill afford to wait for a criminal investigation which may involve one (or more) of Sun-TV principals before pushing him overboard.
In fact, the departure may offer some unexpected welcome relief to the Prime Minister
and his entourage on the eve of the resumption of the Parliamentary fall session next week. Kory Teneycke's past association and close ties with Mr. Harper and his government were becoming problematic distractions as the Sun-TV News application winds its way through the regulatory process before the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC).
Adding to the volatile mix was Quebecor's direct involvement through its President, Pierre Karl Peladeau, in a bid to return the NHL to Quebec City. That bid hinges on construction of a large ice arena complex in Quebec, an issue over which a public backlash forced the Prime Minister to back away from, just a few days ago. Mr. Harper it seems has now been favoured with additional distancing both from Sun-TV and Mr. Peladeau. Lest I digress: The new "grand-fromage" at Sun-TV is Luc Lavoie who was Prime Minister Brian Mulroney's Director of Communications...but at least that's all a few years back!
Mr. Harper, who has obsessive control over what the media says about him, the Conservatives and his government, will now be freer to concentrate on the substantive matters set to explode during Question Period over the next several weeks. Specifically the purchase of the F-35 Joint Strike stealth fighter jets; abolishing the long-gun registry; and any potential fall-out from Auditor-General Sheila Fraser's look into value for the money spent on the "Economic Action Plan" which kick-started the economy.
The recent advent of "working" coalition governments in the United-Kingdom and Australia - parliamentary systems just like-ours - may be seen to both favour and encourage the Liberals and the New Democrats to resume discussions over forcing an election once the budget is set at the end of winter. Last spring there were widespread rumours in Ottawa that just such talks were being encouraged by former Liberal P.M. Jean Chretien and the former leader of the NDP, Ed Broadbent. After a summer of some discontent, there is no reason to believe those embers aren't still burning.
If Mr. Harper who's minority government has been in power almost five years is to concentrate on the country's issues of substance. Then he can ill afford to have control over "the plot" drift away from his grasp over the mundane.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
GAUZE BAGS PLEASE! WE'RE CANADIAN. THANK YOU.
I'm from New Brunswick. Back in my generation the drink of choice in the Maritimes was King Cole Tea (in gauze teabags), the finest Orange Pekoe imported from India since 1867 by Barbour Foods of Sussex. They still do! - I digress, relax, eventually this will make sense.
September usually brings a certain rejuvenating sense of well-being following the summer's hiatus. Except of course in Canadian politics where we've enjoyed / or suffered (depending on one's point of view) a minority Federal Government since January of 2006. Thus, the anticipated return of the Parliamentary session in just a couple of weeks means the usual litany of accusations, threats and bombastic intent to force, call, trigger, slip-into another unwanted national election.
So just this week both major national leaders, Liberal Mchael Ignatieff; and Conservative Prime-Minister Stephen Harper have traded barbs and pre-election rhetoric. In Baddeck, Cape Breton, Ignatieff described the Tories as..."the toughest and most ruthless machine in Canadian politics." - Last year to the same audience (the Liberal caucus) in Sudbury he'd advised: "Mr. Harper your time is up!." Same old, same old - Kinda reminds me of the 3 decades old cereal commercial: "Give it to Mikey, He'll eat anything."
As for Mr. Harper this September's mantra is all about "majority government." Fresh from his Northern Territories "wave the flag" tour, he's been telling anyone still listening that there is a stark choice to be made: "A stable majority Conservative government - or a coalition of Liberals, New Democrats and the Separatist Bloc Quebecois." Implying: Canada, the choice is yours - Vote for me!
Journalists and political commentators tell us the party leaders are "framing the ballot question." Sounds to me as if the "frame" is becoming frayed around the edges; but nevertheless the picture is in increasingly sharper focus:
- Party leaders rather than National leadership;
- Dogma ignoring issues;
- Division instead of unity;
- Victory over substance and vision;
- Popularity polls over the nation's welfare.
It is very Canadian of us to take a back seat on most issues to the lead of our southern neighbours in the United-States. Politics is no different, and we have been witnessing for 8 years or less what apporter partisan polarization and a disaffected, disenfranchised middle-class. Broadcaster Glenn Beck, ex-Governor Sarah Palin, and their Tea Party supporters being just a most recent manifestation:
Which begs the question (posed at least once recently in a newspaper headline) - "Is The Tea Party Canada-Bound?" -
Throughout modern history, protest movements have formed, existed and subsequently vanished. In the United States they've fueled Presidential candidacies from the Right by Ross Peroe; and the Left, Ralph Nader. On Canadian soil, Preston Manning's book "The New Canada" (1982), begat the Reform Party created in 1987; precursor to Mr.Harper's Alliance coalition with the Progressive-Conservatives. There have been similar manifestations on provincial territory including the current Wildrose Alliance Party in Alberta; the Action Democratique Quebecois (ADQ); and in the election now underway down east, the People's Alliance of New Brunswick.
The cautionary tale for Canada's Parliamentarians is the dangerous emergence of resentment against political elitism and what the Americans call "big" government. The former Premier of British-Columbia, William Vander Zalm, who spearheads the anti-HST movement in his own province now describes the effort this way: "When we started this whole campaign against the HST, it was just the HST. Now it has grown into a whole issue of democracy, people are saying that we don't have democracy, we elect dictatorships."
An embryonic "Tea Party Movement of Canada" has already formed on the media savvy Face Book Internet site. Still in its infancy and with just 1,400 signed-up members it's hardly a threat to mainstream politics and probably hardly worth notice nor mention. After all there are still considerable political differences between Canada and the United-States. However, while some anger and frustration may dissolve into much ho-hum apathy; in some other circles the basis of a Tea Party-like protest movement is the same on either side of the international border.
September usually brings a certain rejuvenating sense of well-being following the summer's hiatus. Except of course in Canadian politics where we've enjoyed / or suffered (depending on one's point of view) a minority Federal Government since January of 2006. Thus, the anticipated return of the Parliamentary session in just a couple of weeks means the usual litany of accusations, threats and bombastic intent to force, call, trigger, slip-into another unwanted national election.
So just this week both major national leaders, Liberal Mchael Ignatieff; and Conservative Prime-Minister Stephen Harper have traded barbs and pre-election rhetoric. In Baddeck, Cape Breton, Ignatieff described the Tories as..."the toughest and most ruthless machine in Canadian politics." - Last year to the same audience (the Liberal caucus) in Sudbury he'd advised: "Mr. Harper your time is up!." Same old, same old - Kinda reminds me of the 3 decades old cereal commercial: "Give it to Mikey, He'll eat anything."
As for Mr. Harper this September's mantra is all about "majority government." Fresh from his Northern Territories "wave the flag" tour, he's been telling anyone still listening that there is a stark choice to be made: "A stable majority Conservative government - or a coalition of Liberals, New Democrats and the Separatist Bloc Quebecois." Implying: Canada, the choice is yours - Vote for me!
Journalists and political commentators tell us the party leaders are "framing the ballot question." Sounds to me as if the "frame" is becoming frayed around the edges; but nevertheless the picture is in increasingly sharper focus:
- Party leaders rather than National leadership;
- Dogma ignoring issues;
- Division instead of unity;
- Victory over substance and vision;
- Popularity polls over the nation's welfare.
It is very Canadian of us to take a back seat on most issues to the lead of our southern neighbours in the United-States. Politics is no different, and we have been witnessing for 8 years or less what apporter partisan polarization and a disaffected, disenfranchised middle-class. Broadcaster Glenn Beck, ex-Governor Sarah Palin, and their Tea Party supporters being just a most recent manifestation:
Which begs the question (posed at least once recently in a newspaper headline) - "Is The Tea Party Canada-Bound?" -
Throughout modern history, protest movements have formed, existed and subsequently vanished. In the United States they've fueled Presidential candidacies from the Right by Ross Peroe; and the Left, Ralph Nader. On Canadian soil, Preston Manning's book "The New Canada" (1982), begat the Reform Party created in 1987; precursor to Mr.Harper's Alliance coalition with the Progressive-Conservatives. There have been similar manifestations on provincial territory including the current Wildrose Alliance Party in Alberta; the Action Democratique Quebecois (ADQ); and in the election now underway down east, the People's Alliance of New Brunswick.
The cautionary tale for Canada's Parliamentarians is the dangerous emergence of resentment against political elitism and what the Americans call "big" government. The former Premier of British-Columbia, William Vander Zalm, who spearheads the anti-HST movement in his own province now describes the effort this way: "When we started this whole campaign against the HST, it was just the HST. Now it has grown into a whole issue of democracy, people are saying that we don't have democracy, we elect dictatorships."
An embryonic "Tea Party Movement of Canada" has already formed on the media savvy Face Book Internet site. Still in its infancy and with just 1,400 signed-up members it's hardly a threat to mainstream politics and probably hardly worth notice nor mention. After all there are still considerable political differences between Canada and the United-States. However, while some anger and frustration may dissolve into much ho-hum apathy; in some other circles the basis of a Tea Party-like protest movement is the same on either side of the international border.
Friday, August 20, 2010
PARADISE LOST
It's a toss-up I think whether Canadians will face another Federal Election sometime in the fall. Unfortunately that's the territory created by a minority status government in a Parliament composed of four Political Parties. And, it happens irrespective of Federal legislation establishing fixed electoral dates every four years. That Legislation was ignored in 2008 by the ruling Party which promoted it. There are no valid reasons to believe it will be any different the next time.
Three months ago when the House of Commons adjourned there were high expectations that from a political perspective it would be a relatively quiet break from the routine drudgery of a Parliamentary session. Basking in the afterglow of the two Ontario Summits in June and the Queen's Canada Day tour of several provinces, the Prime Minister was to take the summer off with family at the Harrington Lake compound while the Liberal Leader, Michael Ignatieff, rode the country's back roads for a third summer's attempt at connecting with just plain folk. Oh my!
Just when you'd have thought we'd remain on safe ground for a few more weeks; the Prime Minister who's summer absence was described by critics as arrogant, uncaring and out of touch; has taken to the road with announcements in Vancouver last week, visits and job creation goodies in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island this week, and an Arctic Tour which begins on Monday. And; amidst the unexpected clamour of accusations over the G-20 security tactics; the long-form census controversy; and the sacking of the RCMP's "Gun Registry" honcho - Though described as "somewhat respectably successful" - The Ignatieff summer camp tour has been forced to play to a significantly lesser National audience whilst his speeches, announcements and pronouncements have been preached to a largely converted crowd of existing Liberal supporters. "C'est la vie" as they say too frequently in Politics.
Front and centre, the Conservatives of Prime Minister Harper have faced a summer long barrage of growing accusations over the Government's treatment of officials and bureaucrats with dissenting views. The most recent to join the list is the RCMP Superintendent (Marty Cheliak) dumped from his job overseeing the national "long-gun registry" which the Conservatives have vowed to abolish before September's end. Very recent rumours suggest the Chair and the Vice-Chair of the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (The CRTC) are heading for the dumpster as well - At least one wag suggesting - to clear the way for the regulator's blessing of Quebecor's right of centre all news TV outlet: "Sun News" which is being fronted by Mr. Harper's former Chief Spokesman, Kory Teneycke.
Mr. Harper is obsessed with image and some say his Government and Party have taken their agenda control to a freakish new level. But, despite the government's centrally controlled information and news vetting efforts; Conservative insiders have frequently bristled over and complained about the national media's coverage of government initiatives. The Quebecor backed right-wing television news channel modelled on Fox News, and fronted by Mr. Teneycke, is said to be of paramount importance with Mr. Harper and his handlers.
Michael Ignatieff and the rag tag team of Liberals left behind from the back-to-back meltdowns of the Jean Chretien and Paul Martin governments back in 2005 & 2006 don't likely appear too well organized nor prepared much to seize the issue and capitalize significantly from the seemingly arrogant and obsessive behaviour of the current minority government.
Political leaders and observers from both sides of the aisle should know that Parties lose their grip on power when voters perceive that they are too arrogant to work cooperatively on facing and solving the country's common problems. It seems that many issues in Canada may well have reached the point that they should transcend political parties. The bi-partisan turmoil which has crippled the Administration of the Government of the United-States is just one recent (very nearby) example from which to draw our own critical lesson.
Canadians are right to be furious and disillusioned with our Federal politicians. It may be a toss-up on whether we'll be called (once again) to go to the ballot boxes in the fall. However before paradise is lost in a flurry of apathy and disillusionment we will need people who choose to run for office for the purposes that they can serve far more than to merely get elected. Politicians and representatives who are not just saying what they need to get elected, or make promises they can't keep. Beware because eventually they will be judged by their effectiveness and willingness to cooperate. Consensus, so that the tensions and the differences of opinions about the problems we need to address are resolved before the doomsday clock strikes twelve, would be a refreshing change and a good starting point.
Three months ago when the House of Commons adjourned there were high expectations that from a political perspective it would be a relatively quiet break from the routine drudgery of a Parliamentary session. Basking in the afterglow of the two Ontario Summits in June and the Queen's Canada Day tour of several provinces, the Prime Minister was to take the summer off with family at the Harrington Lake compound while the Liberal Leader, Michael Ignatieff, rode the country's back roads for a third summer's attempt at connecting with just plain folk. Oh my!
Just when you'd have thought we'd remain on safe ground for a few more weeks; the Prime Minister who's summer absence was described by critics as arrogant, uncaring and out of touch; has taken to the road with announcements in Vancouver last week, visits and job creation goodies in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island this week, and an Arctic Tour which begins on Monday. And; amidst the unexpected clamour of accusations over the G-20 security tactics; the long-form census controversy; and the sacking of the RCMP's "Gun Registry" honcho - Though described as "somewhat respectably successful" - The Ignatieff summer camp tour has been forced to play to a significantly lesser National audience whilst his speeches, announcements and pronouncements have been preached to a largely converted crowd of existing Liberal supporters. "C'est la vie" as they say too frequently in Politics.
Front and centre, the Conservatives of Prime Minister Harper have faced a summer long barrage of growing accusations over the Government's treatment of officials and bureaucrats with dissenting views. The most recent to join the list is the RCMP Superintendent (Marty Cheliak) dumped from his job overseeing the national "long-gun registry" which the Conservatives have vowed to abolish before September's end. Very recent rumours suggest the Chair and the Vice-Chair of the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (The CRTC) are heading for the dumpster as well - At least one wag suggesting - to clear the way for the regulator's blessing of Quebecor's right of centre all news TV outlet: "Sun News" which is being fronted by Mr. Harper's former Chief Spokesman, Kory Teneycke.
Mr. Harper is obsessed with image and some say his Government and Party have taken their agenda control to a freakish new level. But, despite the government's centrally controlled information and news vetting efforts; Conservative insiders have frequently bristled over and complained about the national media's coverage of government initiatives. The Quebecor backed right-wing television news channel modelled on Fox News, and fronted by Mr. Teneycke, is said to be of paramount importance with Mr. Harper and his handlers.
Michael Ignatieff and the rag tag team of Liberals left behind from the back-to-back meltdowns of the Jean Chretien and Paul Martin governments back in 2005 & 2006 don't likely appear too well organized nor prepared much to seize the issue and capitalize significantly from the seemingly arrogant and obsessive behaviour of the current minority government.
Political leaders and observers from both sides of the aisle should know that Parties lose their grip on power when voters perceive that they are too arrogant to work cooperatively on facing and solving the country's common problems. It seems that many issues in Canada may well have reached the point that they should transcend political parties. The bi-partisan turmoil which has crippled the Administration of the Government of the United-States is just one recent (very nearby) example from which to draw our own critical lesson.
Canadians are right to be furious and disillusioned with our Federal politicians. It may be a toss-up on whether we'll be called (once again) to go to the ballot boxes in the fall. However before paradise is lost in a flurry of apathy and disillusionment we will need people who choose to run for office for the purposes that they can serve far more than to merely get elected. Politicians and representatives who are not just saying what they need to get elected, or make promises they can't keep. Beware because eventually they will be judged by their effectiveness and willingness to cooperate. Consensus, so that the tensions and the differences of opinions about the problems we need to address are resolved before the doomsday clock strikes twelve, would be a refreshing change and a good starting point.
Friday, July 30, 2010
MORE THAN A CHARM OFFENSIVE
President Obama's appearance as a guest on the morning talk-show "The View" is a desperate move by an embattled U.S. administration to reconnect as that nation's fall mid-term elections approach.
Many of the critical issues facing the American government: the wars (Iraq / Afghanistan); the environment; plus the debt and the economy have reached a point where they transcend political parties. But, partisan political games continue to be played at a fever pitch, though we're clearly well beyond the time when governments in North America can any longer afford to play them.
In high level financial circles expectations are that Mr. Obama's government will back away from shutting-off the stimulus taps in the face of lagging job growth and an alarming retreat in consumer confidence. In the past 60 days, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has dropped just short of 15% to 50.4%. Economists watch those numbers closely because they determine consumer spending which is now edging towards the start of the back-to-school shopping season. A reading above 90% would indicate a solid economy. Then, who better for President Obama to bring his "charm offensive" to than the mothers of school aged children who watch "The View?"
Across North America economic threats are still lurking. Though Canada's healthy banking industry has been credited with our relatively soft landing from the recession of the last couple of years; we still haven't stepped completely away from the material danger of a so-called double-dip recession. The Canadian government will be forced by the next Federal budget to shut-off our own $60-Billion economic stimulus program and account to Canadian voters for putting our spending back into serious deficit territory in a series of ill-conceived tax cuts followed by the subsequent downturn. Though it was ignored for political expediency by all parties; that downturn was looming at the time of the last Canadian Federal election in October 2008. Reigning-in the deficit through a series of unpopular cuts with the electorate is fueling speculation of another Canadian national election early this fall before the "shoe-drops" on these expected tough Government measures. Which brings us back to playing political partisan games.
South of the border just last week, the American Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation chalked-up another Half-Billion dollar hit when it was forced (once again) to seize the assets of seven failing banks. What's even more notable is that so far in the first seven months of 2010, a total of 103 U.S. Banks have failed because they have not been able to recover from their portfolios of bad loans mostly tied to real-estate mortgages. In Florida for example, 81% of all mortgages exceed the current value of the home they secure. (In fact running at an average 138% of value). Wait! There's more: Last year's rate of bank failures down in the United-States was slower than in 2010. Not a proud accomplishment: But, it took until October of 2009 (not July) before the number of bankrupt banks surpassed 100. The FDIC estimates that the cost of bank failures looking ahead from 2010 to 2014 will be more than $60 Billion.
With mid-term Congressional elections in the U.S. looming, and the very real potential of a second Canadian Federal Election in two years; knocking-down the economic turmoil and the subsequent elephant-sized debts and deficits hiding behind the closet doors will require Herculean political will and control. What both countries will need are people and leaders running for office for the purpose that they can "serve" far more than to merely get elected. I sure hope the politicians and we voters are up to the task.
Many of the critical issues facing the American government: the wars (Iraq / Afghanistan); the environment; plus the debt and the economy have reached a point where they transcend political parties. But, partisan political games continue to be played at a fever pitch, though we're clearly well beyond the time when governments in North America can any longer afford to play them.
In high level financial circles expectations are that Mr. Obama's government will back away from shutting-off the stimulus taps in the face of lagging job growth and an alarming retreat in consumer confidence. In the past 60 days, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has dropped just short of 15% to 50.4%. Economists watch those numbers closely because they determine consumer spending which is now edging towards the start of the back-to-school shopping season. A reading above 90% would indicate a solid economy. Then, who better for President Obama to bring his "charm offensive" to than the mothers of school aged children who watch "The View?"
Across North America economic threats are still lurking. Though Canada's healthy banking industry has been credited with our relatively soft landing from the recession of the last couple of years; we still haven't stepped completely away from the material danger of a so-called double-dip recession. The Canadian government will be forced by the next Federal budget to shut-off our own $60-Billion economic stimulus program and account to Canadian voters for putting our spending back into serious deficit territory in a series of ill-conceived tax cuts followed by the subsequent downturn. Though it was ignored for political expediency by all parties; that downturn was looming at the time of the last Canadian Federal election in October 2008. Reigning-in the deficit through a series of unpopular cuts with the electorate is fueling speculation of another Canadian national election early this fall before the "shoe-drops" on these expected tough Government measures. Which brings us back to playing political partisan games.
South of the border just last week, the American Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation chalked-up another Half-Billion dollar hit when it was forced (once again) to seize the assets of seven failing banks. What's even more notable is that so far in the first seven months of 2010, a total of 103 U.S. Banks have failed because they have not been able to recover from their portfolios of bad loans mostly tied to real-estate mortgages. In Florida for example, 81% of all mortgages exceed the current value of the home they secure. (In fact running at an average 138% of value). Wait! There's more: Last year's rate of bank failures down in the United-States was slower than in 2010. Not a proud accomplishment: But, it took until October of 2009 (not July) before the number of bankrupt banks surpassed 100. The FDIC estimates that the cost of bank failures looking ahead from 2010 to 2014 will be more than $60 Billion.
With mid-term Congressional elections in the U.S. looming, and the very real potential of a second Canadian Federal Election in two years; knocking-down the economic turmoil and the subsequent elephant-sized debts and deficits hiding behind the closet doors will require Herculean political will and control. What both countries will need are people and leaders running for office for the purpose that they can "serve" far more than to merely get elected. I sure hope the politicians and we voters are up to the task.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
G-20 REDUX
I was introduced recently to Denis Cochrane, an academic who is the President of St. Thomas University. I've been subsequently reminded that Mr. Cochrane has a substantial political background. He has been a Member of Parliament, and was Leader of the Progressive-Conservative Party of New Brunswick in the aftermath of Richard Hatfield's 17 year reign as Premier. At that time, the knock against Cochrane was that he was "too nice."
In a series of conversations with prominent New Brunswickers which is being published by the Saint John daily, the "Telegraph Journal", Denis Cochrane muses about politics. He believes modern politicians are losing their ability to govern because they depend almost exclusively on opinion poll results, before making the critical (sometimes unpopular) decisions required of public policy makers.
While Canadians are mired in the controversy over police security tactics during last month's G-20 Economic Summit of world leaders in Toronto. The real issue: The Summit's consensus on pulling back "stimulus funding" has been all but forgotten. In fact after a poll this week in the United States that only 42% of Americans approve of President Obama's "handling of the economy" - The taps on the potpourri of federal stimulus money will likely continue flowing even as the country's nearly Trillion Dollar package adopted by Congress last year ends. At stake for President Obama and the Democratic Party are the mid-term Congressional and Gubernatorial elections this November: That's the point!
Making decisions may be part of leadership; but running the risk of losing the next election for making sometimes unpopular (though right) choices seems no longer a valid reason for seeking office. As Dennis Cochrane sees it, politicians surely have..."an obligation to consult with their constituents. They have an obligation to have a dialogue and get all the information they can...but ultimately they have to make the decision."
Essentially in the case of last month's G-20 the dialogue and the consultations have taken place and the combined wisdom of the leaders of the world's great economic powers resulted in a consensus that the recovery would best be served by growing fiscal consolidation and boosting national savings. That's what the Summit Declaration says. Though for most countries, boosting national savings is unlikely to see the light of day. In the United-States stimulus relief raised the national debt to $14-Trillion, and the bad news is the administration isn't sure what to expect next year when the stimulus funds run out. Amongst the European Union partners, there is real fear that some more partners, like Greece earlier, will default later this year on Bond issues. At the very least the economies of Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Iceland remain on life-support. To say nothing of the United Kingdom in the event that its largest corporation, British Petroleum (B.P.) were forced into liquidation over the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster. Billions of British Pounds, primarily retirement and pension funds, are invested in B.P.
Here in Canada politicians have taken credit for our relatively soft landing from the financial turmoil of the past three years. But, it's the prospect of a further soured economy which is fueling speculation of an early fall Federal Election before "the other shoe drops." Statistics Canada has just reported that the month before the Toronto Summit (May), Canadians bought more than we sold abroad: Our imports outpaced exports by $503 Million. At the very least, the Federal Government faces the prospect of wrestling down the $60-Billion fiscal hole that was dug keeping the economy from tanking further.
Just when it seems they may be most needed; elected officials have abandoned honesty, trust and integrity as principles of leadership in favour of opinion polling and political expediency. In return, little wonder that fewer people engage and vote, and that the apathy and the cynicism grow.
In a series of conversations with prominent New Brunswickers which is being published by the Saint John daily, the "Telegraph Journal", Denis Cochrane muses about politics. He believes modern politicians are losing their ability to govern because they depend almost exclusively on opinion poll results, before making the critical (sometimes unpopular) decisions required of public policy makers.
While Canadians are mired in the controversy over police security tactics during last month's G-20 Economic Summit of world leaders in Toronto. The real issue: The Summit's consensus on pulling back "stimulus funding" has been all but forgotten. In fact after a poll this week in the United States that only 42% of Americans approve of President Obama's "handling of the economy" - The taps on the potpourri of federal stimulus money will likely continue flowing even as the country's nearly Trillion Dollar package adopted by Congress last year ends. At stake for President Obama and the Democratic Party are the mid-term Congressional and Gubernatorial elections this November: That's the point!
Making decisions may be part of leadership; but running the risk of losing the next election for making sometimes unpopular (though right) choices seems no longer a valid reason for seeking office. As Dennis Cochrane sees it, politicians surely have..."an obligation to consult with their constituents. They have an obligation to have a dialogue and get all the information they can...but ultimately they have to make the decision."
Essentially in the case of last month's G-20 the dialogue and the consultations have taken place and the combined wisdom of the leaders of the world's great economic powers resulted in a consensus that the recovery would best be served by growing fiscal consolidation and boosting national savings. That's what the Summit Declaration says. Though for most countries, boosting national savings is unlikely to see the light of day. In the United-States stimulus relief raised the national debt to $14-Trillion, and the bad news is the administration isn't sure what to expect next year when the stimulus funds run out. Amongst the European Union partners, there is real fear that some more partners, like Greece earlier, will default later this year on Bond issues. At the very least the economies of Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Iceland remain on life-support. To say nothing of the United Kingdom in the event that its largest corporation, British Petroleum (B.P.) were forced into liquidation over the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster. Billions of British Pounds, primarily retirement and pension funds, are invested in B.P.
Here in Canada politicians have taken credit for our relatively soft landing from the financial turmoil of the past three years. But, it's the prospect of a further soured economy which is fueling speculation of an early fall Federal Election before "the other shoe drops." Statistics Canada has just reported that the month before the Toronto Summit (May), Canadians bought more than we sold abroad: Our imports outpaced exports by $503 Million. At the very least, the Federal Government faces the prospect of wrestling down the $60-Billion fiscal hole that was dug keeping the economy from tanking further.
Just when it seems they may be most needed; elected officials have abandoned honesty, trust and integrity as principles of leadership in favour of opinion polling and political expediency. In return, little wonder that fewer people engage and vote, and that the apathy and the cynicism grow.
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