CAUGHT LOOKING THE WRONG WAY ?

As much as I hate to admit, the President of the United States and I are of the same generation. But after a week when most mainstream American media have described the mayhem in their nation's capital, and in particular the White House, as 'Pure Madness' - I am first to admit that sometimes at least, I keep my crazy to myself.

As best I can: I sympathize with how lonely it must seem being the most powerful man in the world when everyone has concluded you're an idiot. Perhaps just like the great icon of American manufacturing, Henry Ford who became increasingly dictatorial and ever more demented in the post World War II years,  Mr. Trump has convinced himself and a handful of 'believers' that America will be great again when dinner is brought to your car window on roller-skated damsels or the 'cinemascope' movie speaker hangs from the driver side window.



Unsafe at any speed !

How else to explain the delusional notion of plunging the world into a global war on trade over the manufacture of key components of the great muscle machines of the pre-Viet Nam era:  Steel and Aluminium.

From beer cans, appliances, aircraft, auto making, and God forbid gun-making (Sigh !)  more than 6 Million Americans depend directly on jobs which use manufactured steel and aluminium. Less that 100,000 Americans work in the country's ageing steel and aluminium rolling mills, mostly along the mid-Atlantic rust-belt which can't, won't and could not keep-up with domestic demand - Trade Wars are not good for America : They're wars in which.... OH WAIT !... I was going to say everyone loses.

On second thought, perhaps the one winner over yet another looming trade dispute with our bullying deranged neighbour to the south is our Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, and his embattled Cabinet. Even with the many gifts and promises of more in an early Federal Budget Tuesday last; nothing deterred the country's (and much of the world's) attention away from "That India Trip !" Until "The Donald" ill advised and unplanned blurting. Until the next shoe drops, perhaps Mr. Trudeau should be thankful.

PAY ATTENTION AMERICA !

We Canadians, in a manner of smugness with which we're really not accustomed, thought we'd cornered the charisma market in the post Obama years after your bizarro President, Donald Trump, was elected and our sophisticated, charming, debonair, young, image obsessed Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, rose to the world's media attention.

Alas ! When the history of our 23rd Prime Minister is writ...pretty much all that may need mention is "That India Trip" to challenge our preconceived perception and to pinpoint that week in 2018 when the wheels came off the charisma wagon.

We're about to legalize Marijuana in Canada. I am assuming perhaps that it was the celebratory Indian Ganja shared onboard the Prime Minister and his entourage's flight from Ottawa to India a few days back that kiboshed their official mission. And, somehow and in some unimaginable way (For no particular worthwhile reason) allowed our government's leader to parade and blunder his way, family and retinue in tow, in overly inappropriate Indian outfits across a chunk of southern Asia. All of which, to say the least in just about less than 72 hours, turned a really important international sortie into a bad joke and an international embarrassment. What could they possibly have been thinking ?

Pundits have suggested that there had been recent hints that bats were slippin' out of the belfry. One of which was a recent overzealous suggestion that the term 'mankind' should really be changed to 'peoplekind' to reflect gender neutrality - A comment Mr. Trudeau subsequently characterized as a silly joke - Be that as it may, the current India brouhaha has likely left the world's media to revise or downgrade some earlier glossy front page adorable fawning over our photogenic Prime-Minister. Even former advisors to other Liberal Prime Ministers have weighed-in with the opinion that there seemed to be little purpose, and clearly no proper planning to this get together of Canadian official misfits on Indian soil. In a blunt editorial even the 'Toronto Star', certainly not a newspaper unsympathetic to Canada's National Liberal Party, calls the India misadventure "(perhaps) the least successful foray into that country since the repelled Mongol invasions of the 13th century." - Yikes !

Canada's trade mission to India may be one for the books, the bad books. But there has also been little if any progress on the sputtering NAFTA talks with the United-States and Mexico, the Trans-Pacific deal (TPP) though still in talks, minus the USA, is progressing at a snails pace and though concluded,  there's been little if any more mention of the European Free Trade accord. Later in the spring, Prime Minister Trudeau presides over the G-7 Summit of world leaders at La Malbaie, an idyllic resort on Quebec's lower St. Lawrence River. The conclave will involve Donald Trump's first foray into Canada as President of the United-States. The world has a fairly good take on what Mr. Trump is all about. But in the afterglow of this India imbroglio, we may have suddenly been jolted into a revised notion of Mr. Trudeau's competence playing at the world's leadership table. Let's hope it's not too late to reverse the damage suffered, and that the next time our PM comes to play, he shows up as who 'HE IS' and not as a Mr. Dressup - The clown shoes have already been claimed by someone else already.

BUILDING WALLS AND BRIDGES....MAYBE !

Tensions along the North American borders, the 'de facto' stalled talks involving Mexico, Canada and the United States over the North American Free Trade Accord (NAFTA), and an increasingly, somewhat hostile, and surely dysfunctional American Administration; add these to a grid-locked Congress and Government, and none augur very favourably to support the construction of new international crossings and / or the infrastructures and facilities which they require and demand.

 Meantime, all of a sudden along the International Border between Northern Maine (USA) and the Province of New Brunswick (Canada) it seems that no one noticed, until recently that is, that the 100 year old 1,500 Ft steel-span bridge over the St. John River was falling apart. (Figures, eh ? - S'tie !)

Politicians are like High School students waiting until last minute to start cramming, in this case 'scrambling' for a quick fix - The Edmundston / Madawaska International Bridge is the life-link which joins the local economy. The American owned Twin Rivers Paper Company operates mills in both countries of the community and the busy bridge links the company's Pulp and Cardboard mills in Canada to its Paper and Packaging Labels manufacturing mills in the USA.  Alas...the international bridge's deteriorating span has forced a 5 Tons weight restriction on vehicles crossing since last October, and the bridge is too old to fix. - Wait ! - There's more : Since 9/11 Canadian Federal authorities have spent multi-millions of dollars to build new and crucial border inspection facilities at the bridge and there is absolutely no appetite to relocate them - In fact that has been made crystal clear to all concerned.  The opposite is true on the American side where the border post dates to near the end of World War 2 and needs to be replaced. Trouble is the current bridge approach on the USA side is way too small to accommodate the mandate from Homeland Security.

 

The "locals" have come-up with a 'made at home' proposal to build a new bridge on the Canadian side where the existing border infrastructure exists, and north up river about 1/2 mile where there would be room to build a new USA Border post. Accordingly the new bridge would be diagonal across the river, and about twice as long as the current 100 year old span...and somehow they expect to be granted authority to proceed and build between 2020 and 2022.  Well, wait until the upper levels of governments and echelons of the bureaucracy on both sides of the 'divide' get hold of this nose stretcher ! - May I digress ?

 

 

It's 14 years since the Government of Canada proposed building a new bridge across the Detroit River to link Ontario and Michigan and (essentially)  replace the (now) 87 year old privately owned 'Ambassador Bridge' over which $2-Billion of trade (The most anywhere in the world) crosses the International Border every day.  It's 6 years since, out of sheer frustration and no doubt hoping to score political capital, the Government of Stephen Harper created the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority to manage the (fiction of the)  'Gordie Howe International Bridge' - So far that corporation has spent close to $ 1/2 Billion (Canadian Dollars) and there ain't no bridge ! - President Obama said OK to the bridge if Canada pays for the USA Border Post in Detroit ($250-Million) - We Canadian have also offered an Interest Free loan of $250-Million to Michigan so they can pay their share...The State Legislature said: Umm... No Thanks !

 

Wait ! There's more : American Billionaire Matty Maroun owns the Ambassador Bridge and he's been offering for at least a dozen years to build a new bridge AT HIS OWN EXPENSE - Guess what ? - Very quietly late last summer, Mr. Maroun's company outmanoeuvred the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority and received a permit from the Trudeau Cabinet to plan and build a new bridge next to the 'Ambassador' as long as the Ambassador Bridge is torn-down within 5 years of the new one becoming operational . There's much speculation now on both sides of the border these days that 'Gordie Howe' will not see the light of day.

 

Perhaps the elected officials of my home town should give Mr. Moroun a call - He's in the Detroit Phone Book.

 

ONE IF BY LAND, TWO IF BY SEA

End of another month; a good time to clear-up accumulated tidbits from under the corners of the desk blotter:

SOMEONE MAY GET IT RIGHT (EVENTUALLY): Investigators poring through the ruins of the lost Mayan civilization of Mexico claim they've uncovered a "second" reference to the Apocalypse predicted for the winter's Solstice next year, December 21, 2012. Experts had previously claimed the existence of just one reference, on a stone tablet uncovered from the ruins of Tortuguero on the Gulf coast. But over the weekend, Mexico's National Institute of Anthropology confirmed the existence of another reference amongst stone carvings at the Mayan ruins of Comalcalco in southern Mexico. - It was just over a month ago that California based evangelical broadcaster Harold Camping scored "0 for 3" when once again the world refused to end as he'd three times before predicted. After his initial "miscalculation" in the 1990's, the Reverend Camping claimed (as God is my witness) that May 21, 2011 would be Judgement Day. - Then, when it did not, he said the actual day of reckoning would be October 21: That day too passed without incident. Someone is bound to score...

ENJOY THAT MIDDLE SEAT IN COACH: First-Class and Business-Class passengers make-up just about 8% of all airline traffic; but they account for almost one-third of revenues for an industry which is once again profitable after languishing for more than a decade. Ten years  which claimed many of the carriers through bankruptcy. Though the airlines still manage to squeeze the very last penny from the vast majority who fly the cheap-seats; after the pilot, the "full-fare" business executive is nowadays the most important person on the plane. Airlines in the United-States have earmarked $2-Billion this year to upgrade amenities for their highest-paying regulars. The airlines are focusing on three specific areas: Giving long-haul passengers a full night's sleep - Stimulating their taste buds at mealtime - Providing "escapes" from the chaos of airport terminals. For the rest of us who's free meals, leg room and blankets were long ago stripped-away; it was always a special place on the other side of "the curtain". Now, it's getting even cushier.

THERE IS AN UPSIDE TO THE ILLEGALS: The Roman-Catholic Church of the United-States is being pulled back from dwindling attendance, closed houses of worship, and a shortage of  worshippers, practitioners and pastors. The continued growth of America's Hispanic population is in the process of changing the U.S. Catholic Church more than any other institution in the country along our southern border.  More than one-third of practicing Catholics in the United-States now claim  Hispanic Heritage, that's more than tripple the 10% reported in a survey conducted in 1987. The majority have a Mexican ancestry and a large number are recent arrivals. The feast of "Santa Maria de Guadalupe," the Blessed Virgin who tradition claims appeared to Aztec peasant Juan Diego in 1531, now ranks with Christmas and Easter as the most popular events at most churches.

MAPLE SYRUP BARBECUE SAUCE: The Bouchard family of Frenchville, Maine along the Northern New Brunswick border has made a name for itself amongst Acadian / 'Cajun' descendants as purveyors of buckwheat flour. The flour is the essential element for the local delicacy known as "Ployes"- a flatbread-like pancake. Another St. John River valley transplant born in nearby Fort Kent, Maine, Pete Morin, is now marketing "Maple Leaf Red Dipping Sauces". Hand-written recipes from a long ago abandoned family restaurant are at the base of the "secret sauce". A new more powerful "Rocket Sauce" is now being developed. Morin told a local journalist recently that the "rocket" will put your (chicken) wings into orbit without shooting flames out your arse! Must be the maple syrup at work.

....AND THIS IS NOW!

Like most of my generation, I mourn our collective loss of innocence in the decade since the attacks on New York, Washington and Shankville, Pennsyslvania.  I was born and raised along the border, and I've witness far too frequently just how much the security measures, now common place in the post 9/11 world, complicate and divide lives, friends, commercial enterprises, business relationships and even families.

Within weeks of the September 2001 events, the United-States launched a massive security build-up which is still growing pretty much unabated along our shared border where for centuries people had crossed back and forth to shop, work or visit relatives with only a nod from a friendly Customs Officer.

Windsor - Detroit's Ambassador Bridge

Canadians acknowledge and accept the need for enhanced security in the United-States and that "our" lives will never be quite the way they were. But the disruptions and changes remain a source of frequent frustrations on both sides for residents of the cities, towns, villages and communities which dot our shared 8891 kilometer / 5557 miles  border; the longest (once friendliest) on the planet. There are nightmarish stories recounted by emergency responders (fire and ambulance) on mutual-aid calls held-up by overzealous border agents. Small towns struggling with soured economic conditions: Has anyone been to Van Buren, Caribou or Madawaska, Maine recently? Towns like Ogdensburg, Messina and Watertown, New York reduced to advertising their "economic opportunities" in far off large Canadian city newspapers.

Mindful of our long standing and mutually beneficial economic trading relationships with the United-States; successive Canadian governments, provincial and state authorities, and business, manufacturing and trade organizations (often from both sides)  have sought to ease cross-border passage if not frequent tensions. Mired by paranoid patriotic fervor the Bush Administration, First - (and) - Overwhelmed by economic and political turmoil the Obama Administration, Second - have neither expressed nor entertained any genuine interest in effecting change.  Most recently plans for a new crossing over the Detroit River suffered a crippling setback in the Michigan State Senate, the American federal government re-introduced a $5.50 per person levy on Canadians entering the USA, and President Obama's multi-billion dollar pre-election jobs creation scheme hinges on  "Buy America" provisions. The much touted, ballyhooed and delayed "Perimeter Security Framework" has turned into an irritant for Canadians, and an embarrassment for the Harper government.

Whether it's a matter of how Canada gets routinely sideswiped when the U.S. is really targeting someone else (that has been suggested by some observers) or bad manners and discrimination; the cacophony from our noble friend and ally down south has grown somewhat tedious, irksome and alas, wearisome!

The message may be starting to get through: Since North Americans and the world were turned upside down by terrorism a decade ago, instead of working together as neighbours on common strategies to reduce internal problems and re-build damaged economies we hop from crisis to crisis and Band-Aid solutions. Perhaps out of frustration but always with the political correctness required of his office, Canada's Minister of Finance, Jim Flaherty, said recently that U.S. politics can sometimes be "dysfunctional." - Someone else remarked: "Once the presidential race fully takes off in January, "dysfunctional" may look like a compliment.

BORDER ACTION PLAN

In this country the Government of Prime Minister Harper has been fixated on affixing the "Action Plan" label to just about everything it's attempted since launching the $50+Billion rescue of the economy in the wake of the 2008 world financial collapse. No surprise then that in the absence of Mr.Harper's grand-vision of an integrated Canada-U.S. "Perimeter Security" deal as announced with fanfare last winter, the government will now take to calling the recently negotiated perimeter security lite - "Canada's Beyond The Border Action Plan."

Doubtless despite intense efforts from Canada's perspective; just about all that's been accomplished since the two sides began meeting in February is the establishment of a "working group" which will attempt to peel away at international layers of bureaucratic red-tape, and re-double efforts to establish better communications on matters relating to Customs levies and procedures, and most important to the United-States: Security issues.

That's a very far cry it seems from the Harper "big-vision" which up until just very recently his Government had hope to implement. And that's also why the Prime Minister's office has failed to convince authorities in Washington to make the President available for any announcement, let alone a signing ceremony of any sort. Just slightly more than a year out of the next Presidential elections in the United States the last thing the Obama Administration wants is to focus his moribund jobs creation record over improving cross-border trading relations with the neighbour north of the 49th parallel.

Fortunately perhaps for Mr. Obama's re-election efforts he's now far more likely to focus his attention on the Mexican neighbour south of the U.S. border in the wake of last week's failed alleged Iranian backed terror plot which Homeland Security claims to have been coordinated down Mexico-way.  On Tuesday last, President Obama himself announced that Iranian Forces had sought to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. by bombing a popular Washington restaurant with the help of Mexican desperadoes. Ay, Caramba! (As is frequently the case in such matters; details are sketchy).

Most Republican Presidential hopefuls in the United-States have seized on the matter to redouble demands that America must secure its southern border by sending more troops to the area, adding predator drone surveillance aircraft,  and building more fencing to separate the U-S border from Mexico. On Saturday Republican candidate and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann signed a a formal pledge committing that as President she will build a double fence across the entire border with Mexico before the end of 2013.

A Raleigh, North-Carolina group called "Americans for Securing the Border"is behind the pledge initiative. It's current focus is on matters related to the problems along the border with Mexico including drug smuggling, illegal immigration, human trafficking and in light of these most recent developments, potential terrorists. But the group's Chair and co-founder, a Washington defense lobbyist named Van D. Hipp, Jr has claimed in the past that the Government of the United-States has been derelict in its duty in defending the "borders".

When the U.S. House of Representatives defeated President Bush's proposed "guest worker programme" for undocumented immigrants in December 2005, the bill the House adopted ordered the Department of Homeland Security to obtain "complete operational control" of borders within 18 months, including studying the feasibility of erecting barriers on the border with Canada.  In follow-up reviews, (most recently in May 2011) the Government Accountability Office (G.A.O.), the U.S. Congressional watchdog, noted that in its opinion just 32 of the nearly 4000 northern border miles had reached an acceptable level of security.

Canada's focus remains on trade with our southern partner which is essential to our own economic security. The focus on border relations in the United-States seems to be from an altogether different perspective. I'm not quite sure we will ever see it with the same optic and intensity.

WATER: NOT JUST FOR THE COMMODE

Media personalities, screen actors, winners of the Nobel Prize have been pushing back publicly against the Keystone XL oil pipeline project set for President Obama's final approval any day now.

Demonstrators have recently moved the protests to Ottawa as it has become increasingly obvious that in Washington's politically charged atmosphere, one year out from a Presidential election, green-flagging the pipeline is a "slam-dunk"; or a no-brainer as Stephen Harper described it to Bloomberg News in New York last weekend.

The 2700 Kilometer Keystone XL pipeline will draw unrefined oil from northern Alberta through Saskatchewan to enter the United-States in Montana on its way to the petroleum refineries along the Gulf Coast of southern Texas. The economic impact and the number of jobs created along its multi-states route are simply too overwhelming for the Obama Administration, which is fighting to regain control of America's troubled economy, to ignore.

Moving-on: Every step of the way along the Harper Government's efforts to improve trade relations with the United-States (pipeline included); Canada's strategy for negotiating the enhanced "Perimeter Security" arrangements has butted-heads and been hampered by America's steadfast resolve that homeland security trumps trade. Even when trade is with its neighbourly and overwhelmingly largest international business and trading partner. Though it may be unrelalted, The Government of the United-States has already declared that "water supply" is a national security issue.

A significant element of the problem already affects several states south of our shared 49th parallel. They have now allocated their maximum existing water supplies to farming, industry and urban development. Either they will have to do with less water, or tap large new sources as the North American climate continues to change and erode largely because of our human habits and indiscretions.

Back in 2010, Canada was one of a handful of countries which abstained from a vote at the United-Nations declaring water to be a universal right. Flushed with renewable fresh water resources along with our miniscule population which is less that 0.5% of the planet's, we Canadians are already the world's largest per capita consumers of water. The simmering debate given recent new life by trend spotters, some investment gurus, and conversely little attention by policy makers, seems to suggest: Forget oil and gas -Invest in water! Back in July, the Chief Economist at Citibank, William Buiter, pretty much said so in a memo to investors: "I expect to see in the near future a massive expansion of investment in the water sector, including the production of fresh, clean water from other sources (desalination, purification), storage, shipping and transportation of water. I expect to see pipeline networks that will exceed the capacity of those for oil and gas today." (Quoted from the Alphaville Blog)

An analysis prepared by the Canadian military, and so far (it seems) largely ignored by the escalating level of incompetents responsible for our Department of National Defence, (I digress!) claims that up to 60 countries could fall into a category of water scarcity or stress by 2050. It would place Canada and our abundance of water on the path to "a key source of (political) power" or a "basis for future conflict." Parts of the draft report titled: 'Army 2040 - First Look' were seen by Postmedia News in June, before the Citibank memo was issued by the Chief-Ecnomist.

The draft of the Army report concludes that Canada's path into this hazardous and problamic future depends on the policy decisions made by the government today. Haven't seen any. - Sure hope the planned largely discredited "Law and Order" legislation before the House of Commons isn't a sign-post precursor of the road ahead.

TOO CHEAP TO FLY

Everyone is looking for a $99 fare, if they don't get it - they don't fly. How would you like to be an investor in a business that has rarely turned a profit in 80 years?

That's the crazy airline business and Air Canada shares with too many others the dubious distinction of its poster child. The Montreal based International Air Transport Association (IATA) notes that the airline industry has lost a total of $50-Billion since the business took a direct hit in the aftermath of the September 2001 terrorist attacks.

Because of the progressive rise in the cost of jet-fuel even some of the traditional "discount" airlines have found it more difficult to continue to offer low prices. For instance to shave costs, SouthWest in the U.S. has merged with Air Tran, and Ryanair in the United-Kingdom and Europe has grounded about 80 aircraft of its fleet.

Anyone remember "Tango" and "Zip"? A decade ago they were Air Canada's frontline effort to create 'airlines within the airline' to replicate and mimic the look and the feel of its upstart competitors; at that time primarily Calgary based WestJet which copied the successful SouthWest model from the United-States.

Air Canada Express (Sky Regional Airlines) Bombardier DHC-8-402 (Q400) N505LX (msn 4174) YYZ (TMK Photography) (new airline), a photo by Airliners Gallery on Flickr.

Despite the gloomy outlook, or perhaps because of it Canada's legacy flag-carrier claims to be positioning itself to buck the trend. Air Canada announced last spring that it would launch a discount airline that will provide cheap fares to holiday destinations. The surprise announcement seems to figure prominently in the company's labour turmoil which so far has involved customer service agents, flight attendants and which will likely soon also involve the company's pilots.

Speculating about forming a new company may have had more to do with pensions and work rules than lower ticket prices for customers. Which leads some pundits to speculate that the announcement was part of a scheme to advance the corporate agenda to negotiate different work rules, as it has since with the customer service agents where the salary scale for new hires was reduced by 20%; while the Federal Government's back-to-work legislation (which ended their June strike in less than 3 days) sent pension roll-back issues to binding arbitration.

Deep in the throes of its financial agony and bankruptcy reorganization in 2001 Air Canada split-off and downloaded regional operations by creating JAZZ, a company based in Halifax whose 5000 employees are represented by different unions and less lucrative wage scales. JAZZ has just started rebranding itself as "Air Canada Express" (see photo) to streamline operations with Sky Regional Airlines. Sky Regional is a non-unionized operator contracted to compete with Porter Airlines on the lucrative Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal routes operated from Toronto's downtown island airport. Lest I digress...Porter's response has been to open a new crew hub in Halifax leading to speculation that it will increase flights into Atlantic Canada and into the United-States through Boston, New York and Newark.

Following the threat of more back-to-work legislation from the Harper Government, this week's last minute agreement reached with Air Canada's 6000 flight attendants likely involves terms similar to those ordered in June for the customer service reps. It may force (at least strongly encourage) the company's pilots to follow the lead when their turn comes-up most any day now.

With a willing government and back-to-work orders at the ready: If Air Canada can achieve what it wants on labour and pension costs, then you may pretty well forget about their plan to create another discount airline altogether.

...SNOW WHAT?

As sure as the sun will rise in the morning, the snow too will soon fly over the Great White North. Though hardly a surprise, still it's a tiny bit disconcerting when by late month each September the overnight temperature in many parts of the country dips below freezing.

So too, for many as well begins the thought process to seek a place of refuge from the harshness of the winter months, even if only for just a few days once in a while, at a welcoming, warm, sun drenched escape from our Canadian reality.

There are in excess of 26-million cross-border trips by Canadians into the United States each year. Fueled by our strong currency against the United-States "greenback" and despite the tightening border security measures imposed by various U.S. Homeland  initiatives, the flow of northern visitors south of the border dipped in the immediate aftermath of 9/11; but has steadied and grown in recent years. More than 60% of Canadians hold valid passports which are essential to crossing the border, compared to roughly 20% of U.S. citizens with valid documentation.

Security became the top priority at the border following the terrorist attacks of 2001. When combined with the economic downturn in the United-States since 2008, the free-flow of trade has been significantly impacted. But the American economic malaise has also pushed many more individual Canadian shoppers and tourists across the border. Seeking refuge from  winter, from November 2010 to March 2011, Canadians made 5.6 Million "winter leisure trips" to the United States. Florida's tourism bureau reports a significant increase in visits so far in 2011. Canadians lead the increase. The number of Canadian visitors to Florida in 2011 is up 18.4% over last year.

About one million visitors are "Canadian Snowbirds" who spend a month or more (sometimes much more) each year below the Snowbelt. There too, Florida is a destination of choice. It's home-away-from-home for about 360,000 of us each winter. Arizona (83,000) and Hawaii (21,000) follow in the ranking.

From the perspective of the business and trade community which has been buffeted by a weakened economy and the trauma of 9/11, it is abundantly clear that the security guidelines of the past 10 years have been harmful, and clearly no longer sufficient. To that end, there are ongoing talks between Federal Government officials from both sides to construct a detailed plan to secure the border while allowing the free flow of trade and commerce which both countries believe essential to the economic well-being of the continent. There's been speculation in fact that by month's end, President Obama and Prime Minister Harper will announce thirty or more elements of the "Perimeter Security" arrangement they spoke about last February in Washington.

Doubtless the business community will applaud this deal. The challenge for the Obama Administration, and to a lesser degree (perhaps) for Mr. Harper will be to convince their respective Legislatures that it's good for the country. While it is clearly understood that privacy is not an unconditional entitlement, the question for the millions of individual Canadians who commute across the border for business, pleasure or leisure each year should be that the greater pursuit of business is not achieved at the expense of their personal guaranteed rights.

LINKED BY RAIL...

....Perhaps to digress: It's been suggested, tongue in cheek, that high-profile Hollywood personalities recently arrested at the White House protesting the planned Keystone XL oil pipeline from Alberta to the Gulf of Mexico did not travel cross-country on "electric" airplanes.

President Obama is scheduled once again to address the American people in a few days this time about major job creation initiatives, as the economy of the United-States remains mired in an endless and semingly bottomless recession. Pundits expect he will call on Congress to implement additional tax credits and bolster infrastructure spending to get the U.S. economy out of the doldrums.

Just a few months after Obama's swearing-in as President in 2009 he was in Tampa, Florida annoucing a cornerstone measure of his new administration plans to modernize transportation, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and create badly needed employment opportunities. Mr. Obama had earmarked more than $2-Billion for the construction of a "show piece" bullet train linking Tampa Bay and Orlando which would open a new chapter in modern, efficient rail transportation. The Tea-Party backed State Governor, Rick Scott, elected in the follow-up 2010 (mid-term) Gubernatorial face-off flatly rejected the deal. Some of the Florida money,to be specific $404-Million, is now headed to Amtrak in an effort to increase average speed on its rail service from Detroit to Chicago to about 110-miles per hour from the current 90 MPH.

Regardless of the environmental benefits, the plain reality both in the United-States and in Canada is that high-speed (downtown to downtown) train corridors make sense because they are substantially more efficient and less expensive than airplanes along short to mid-range routes...

VIA Rail Train #76, a photo by t47360 on Flickr.

...An argument of course which rings familiar to Canadians who have been advocating for a number of years seeking improved, faster and more efficient rail links along VIA Rail's lucrative Windor / Quebec City corridor. In light of the Amtrak project about to get underway thanks to the Obama "jobs" inititatives, some forward thinkers see an opportunity for a direct Chicago to Montreal rail corridor by way of Detroit and Windsor. Really a "no-brainer," for which the potential would be easily recognized both in Europe and in Asia where most developed countries are light-years ahead of the North American model for rail transportation.

Alas! That's not quite the perception at Via Rail which has received almost $925-Million in Federal stimulus funding to upgrade infrastructure and rail stations. It claims to be hamstrung by its "conventional" service because:"Any plan to move forward with high-speed rail would be a government prerogative."

Still, despite the Federal government's faltering initiative towards a "perimeter security" deal with our U. S. neighbour and, along with a deadlocked Michigan Legislative Assembly, 'Transport Canada' remains committed to, and adamant about, advancing funds to the Americans to build a second bridge over the Detroit River. It seems a rail-link could be a seamless logical extension and a substantial opportunity for this proposal. Since Denis Lebel the Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities is "The" minister with responsibilities for every element of the file(s), he should be inclined (Nay!Encouraged) to reconsider.

MISSED OPPORTUNITY

A weekend 'Globe and Mail' account of the Government's decision to restore the "Royal" prefix to the Navy and the Air Force describes the move as just one part of Prime Minister Harper's (grand) legacy plan to "create a new frame" for Canada. Patrick Muttart now a Chicago businessman and a former Deputy Chief of Staff to Harper says it's..."the emergence of a new alternative to the established Liberal narrative about Canada."

Much of the 40 (or so) year-old narrative Mr. Muttart describes is in the post 1967 Centennial legacy beget by the Trudeau Government and embraced across both sides of the political spectrum by the Governments of Joe Clark, Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien and Paul Martin.

Prime Minister Harper is just returned from a week-long mission to boost ties with Latin America. But the biggest failure of the government's efforts to reinforce Canada's place amongst the countries of  the lower Americas has been to imitate the failed United States approach in our relations with the island nation and the people of Cuba.

Since he took over from his brother Fidel, President Raul Castro has been deliberately nudging Cuba towards a freer market economy and slowly allowing more personal liberties. It's not perfect: Repressions, strict limits on speech, and human-right abuses still exist as they do in Columbia where Mr. Harper was last week to proclaim Canada's new Free Trade Accord with the government in Bogota. As they do in Honduras where, in addition to Costa Rica, Mr. Harper spent a couple of days promoting business and trade with Canadians.

This grand scheme in whichever manifestation by the Harper Government to re-frame Canadian history and derive an alternative to the last 40 years of Liberal narrative may risk jeopardizing our long-standing goodwill, economic, and tourism advantages with the people of Cuba. Canada earned Cuban respect and gratitude by being one of just two countries in the western world not to break diplomatic relations following the revolution in the 1960's. Fidel Castro acknowledged this historic bond by attending Pierre Trudeau's state funeral in Montreal on October 3, 2000.

One of a series of "secret" U.S. cables released by the infamous WikiLeaks last spring suggests that the Harper government's diplomatic posturing in central and south America is designed to gain influence and favour with the United-States. But, as the co-author of - "Canada-Cuba Relations: The Other Good Neighbour Policy" (Peter McKenna) points out: "The Canadian government's approach to Cuba is out of sync...all at a time when the Obama presidency is looking to change the tenor of U.S. - Cuba relations."

For example, President Obama in 2009 removed the restrictions on the travel of American Cuban exiles imposed by President George W. Bush that limited Cuban-Americans to one trip home every three years. Now they can go as often as they want to visit family members. An estimated 400,000 took U.S. charter flights to Cuba last year. To digress: (I've posted about this before) - Cuban authorities charge a 25% import duty on each gift brought into the country by the visiting Cuban-Americans. (See: "FELIZ NAVIDAD" Dec. 19, 2010)

It's almost too late to act before the Canadian government's regressive diplomatic policies towards the island nation of Cuba are outstripped by the Obama administration's desire and efforts to tap the enormous trade and economic potential which exists just off the North American coast. In spite of the roughly 900,000 Canadian tourists who visit Cuba each year, Mr. Harper's diplomatic holding pattern has Canada gambling our goodwill and storied relationship with the Cubans.

MIXED SIGNALS ALONG THE BORDER

There's plenty of anecdotal ammunition to suggest that the "Council of the Federation" meeting of Canadian Premiers just wrapped-up in Vancouver accomplished almost nothing in unifying the provinces: The founder of the "council" Quebec's Jean Charest didn't attend and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty upped and left early to deal with matters back home.

Perhaps it's because there are five Provincial Elections in the works for the fall (and potential for a possible record seven elections) that just about everyone brought an intransigent series of wants and needs to the table. Quebec and Ontario want to re-open the Canada Health Act discussions; the Atlantic Provinces agitate for greater Federal Transfers; Saskatchewan is still smarting over the sale of Potash Corp. debacle; and Alberta and British Columbia want trade deals with the Far East.

With the provinces bickering over regional matters and without any common accord to raise pressure on the Federal Government, it's pretty clear that Prime Minister Harper's parliamentary majority in the House of Commons will remain free to set both the agenda and the course of debate come the return of Members of Parliament in the latter part of September.

Though the Obama Administration is somewhat pre-occupied with a debt crisis which threatens to flatten the planet's most powerful economy. Canada's Federal Government seems undeterred by evidence of the sputtering thirty year old "Mulroney" Conservative ideological belief that what ails Canada is easily fixed by increasing trade south with the Americans. If in a post 9/11 reality this simplistic solution worked then everyone assumes the provincial governments could easily be brought "on board" and their demands for additional funding from Ottawa (for whatever cause) would be satiated.

Unfortunately border perimeter security has been the all consuming top priority of the Government of the United States since the heinous attacks on the homeland ten years ago this fall. And, the reality no Canadian Government seems willing to acknowledge under the current circumstances is that trade and security are mutually exclusive. Add the ongoing melt-down of the United-States economy in the aftermath of the great-recession of 2008 and the attendant rise of American protectionism, and the pop-up perfect economic storm risks leaving Canada's export dependant provinces and Federal coffers battered and bruised beyond reasonable recovery.

Mr. Harper has vowed to press forward negotiating with the Americans to cut "red-tape" and bureaucratic inefficiencies which frequently trump reason at the border. But in reality, with the prospect of a bitter and divisive Presidential Election campaign just over the horizon, Mr. Obama's adversaries are sure to make sure America's security boot on Canada's economic throat remains firmly in place. Already the Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano is being pressed to respond to a sharply critical report of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (The GAO) which claims that the American Customs and Border Protection Agency provides an "acceptable level of security along less than one percent of the border." The study commissioned by the GAO applied the criteria used by the US towards guarding its border with Mexico, and concludes that Border Patrol agents can exercise proper control over just 51 kilometers of the 6400 kilometer border between Canada and the United States - Based on its Mexican model, the GAO implies that the U.S. "does not have the ability to detect illegal activity across most of the northern border."

The Mulroney era free-trader model may have been good for business 30 years ago. Excepting Canada's finite vast energy resources; it now seems essential for our future prosperity as a nation to look outside of the immediate neighbourhood to modernize our trading model - Whether the provinces can agree or not on what precisely it is they want.

HARK! ISN'T THAT THE PERIMETER SECURITY DEAL SPUTTERING INTO OBLIVION?

It's all out war along the Great Lakes, the testiest battle in decades. And it's about building a bridge to Canada. A conflict of monumental proportions which pits a multi-billionaire, Matty Moroun, against the Governor of the bankrupt State of Michigan, Rick Snyder.

The bridge proposal between Windsor and Detroit is a cornerstone of the Harper Government's plan to develop a joint Canada-U.S. border agreement on "perimeter security." Both the long suffering bridge plan and the security deal which was announced six months ago when Prime Minister Harper and President Obama met, appear stalled and well on a rapid track to the "back burner" of American politics. The Obama Administration is being otherwise distracted with plans for the 2012 Presidential election. And, facilitating or sharing American business with (or as opponents argue transferring jobs to) another country is not on their agenda.

Just a month ago in Washington at hearings of the Congressional "Subcommittee on Immigration, Refugees and Border Security," the Chief of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency, Alan Bersin, told Senators on the panel that the Canadian border is a "more significant threat" to American security than the Mexican border. This was no doubt music to opponents of the Detroit bridge deal. Mr. Bersin explained that: "It's commonly accepted that (the northern border is) the more significant threat, because of the people who can enter Canada and come across our bridges into the United-States."

Back to the war of words in Michigan: The wealthy Manuel (Matty) Moroun owns outright the Ambassador Bridge, a toll span which is the busiest land border crossing in the world. He hasn't taken lightly to Michigan's plan for this second bridge financed with loans from the Government of Canada to compete directly with the estimated $60 to $100 Million/year profits generated by the tolls collected by CenTra Inc., Matty's holding company. As most Canadians who watch American television know, Mr. Moroun's company has been running scathing TV commercials against the project for months. The "Detroit Free Press" daily fingered company goons recently for delivering "fake" eviction notices to the owners whose homes could be in the path of a new bridge. With no money to fight back against the campaign, Michigan Governor Snyder is left muttering pious words: "there's a lot of misinformation out there...This is a great thing for our state...It's about international trade and job creation."....Blah, Blah, Blah!

It's clear that the recession of the last two-and-a-half years down south of the 49th parallel has raised a significant climate of American protectionism which, when coupled with the now decade long paranoia over border security matters, do not bode well for any Canadian initiatives. Whether its a new bridge and/or a perimeter security framework with the ultimate aim of integrating and harmonizing law enforcement measures along the border. - Perhaps critics argue with some significant concessions on Canadian sovereignty: I digress!

Last month at the G-8 Summit in Deauville, France; Prime Minister Harper indicated that the Government's "action plan" (an over used Tory moniker) on border security would be ready this summer. Perhaps: But I'm quite unsure that the Obama Democrats, facing an uphill challenge towards the 2012 Presidential election and its appended tea-party hysteria, will be welcoming another "foreign" trade initiative with reciprocal enthusiasm.

DEADWEIGHT LOSS

Why is the Federal Government ready to front the State of Michigan close to $600-Million for its share of building a second Windsor-Detroit bridge?

Michigan's economy is flat-broke and commercial interests on the Canadian side of the border are so critically important that there is virtually no other choice. Lest I digress...I say "virtually" no other choice, because the private owner of the Ambassador Bridge, Detroit billionaire and right-wing conservative Matty Moroun, is ready and willing to build his own second bridge. In fact Mr. Moroun has been running a series of "attack ads" against the government's project on American television, including Fox News.

"Thickening" of America's border with Canada and the Harper Government's efforts last winter to blunt its effect with a "Perimeter Security" arrangement have remained pretty much under the radar during the current Federal Election campaign. It may be that the issue was pretty much a non-starter despite vocal critics dubbing it at the time as an attack on Canadian sovereignty.

Since the near collapse of the American economy in the "Great Recession of 2008" there's been an interesting seesaw effect in the balance of trade between our two nations. Though it remains the most significant exchange of trade and services on the planet; business between the United-States and Canada dropped to $430-Billion in imports and exports in 2009 from a pre-recession high of about $600-Billion, and shot back up to $525-Billion in 2010. It's hard to predict just how the meteoric rise of the Canadian "Loonie" to $1.05 USD will affect trade matters through 2011; but VISA Credit Cards USA reported just last week that Canadian cross-border shoppers accounted for a multi-billion dollar increase in its bottom line since the start of the new year.

Back at the Detroit River bottle neck, a recent study published by two southwestern Ontario Universities (University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University)concludes that the costs of border crossing delays can be startlingly large especially in the automobile sector. For example, it's estimated that the parts and sub-assemblies of automobiles which criss-cross the border several times during production, adds about $800 to the final cost of each automobile. In contrast imported cars from overseas only pass through Customs once; on entering the country.

When it's all put together this loss of economic efficiency known as "deadweight loss" may be sufficiently large to offset Canada's economic gains produced by the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The cost of border delays estimated by the study at Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier may be as much as $30-Billion per year...and the Province of Ontario is its biggest loser. The long-term effect is that potential investors are looking elsewhere when it comes time to open businesses that rely on cross-border shipments.

National "orange surge" or not; polls and pundits predict that it will be difficult on Monday to unseat the two Windsor area N.D.P. Members of Parliament, Brian Masse (Windsor West) and Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh), both of whom are strong supporters of the Harper Government's plan to pay our share of the bridge cost, and to advance the Americans a major share of their costs. Windsor's economy and that of the neighbouring Essex Riding, held by Conservative MP Jeff Watson, have been devastated by the economic downturn in the United-States and the still very fragile recovery of the automobile assembly sector in the Detroit area.

Unless and until car parts, automobiles, lumber, oil and gas; pretty much everything else Canada produces can magically cross the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans as easily as trucks and trains cross into the United States of America; our economic fate is in American hands...a somewhat shaky prospect which may explain why "border issues" have remained off of the election trail.

THE DAY THE RUBBER HITS THE PAVEMENT

The major credit-rating agencies have been casting a watchful eye on the Province of New Brunswick, and they are unlikely to respond kindly unless the provincial budget later in the month moves significantly to stop the financial hemorrhaging.

Travis Shaw who speaks for Dominion Bond Rating told the Saint John Telegraph-Journal a few weeks back that New Brunswick's "challenging fiscal situation" has become a matter of serious concern. Unlike "Dominion", the two other top rating agencies, Standards & Poor's and Moody's Investor Services, haven't waited for the first budget from novice Premier David Alward: They've already downgraded the province's ratings outlook amid concerns for the amount of debt it's been accumulating.

New Brunswick's 700-thousand inhabitants have an accumulated provincial debt of about $9.5 - Billion on which they pay $600 - Million / year in interest alone. Little wonder the deficit for the current fiscal year is pegged at about $820 - Million. By the way, none of which includes the staggering $.4.5 - Billion debt of the provincial utility, N.B. Power.

Somewhat unlike the United-States; a country that puts its President on a pedestal on election night, only to spend the rest of his term tearing it down; Progressive-Conservative Premier Alward, elected late last September, has been enjoying a surprisingly good post election "honeymoon". A recently published eastern Canadian poll pegged him with a higher rating than during last fall's election.

The financial challenges facing New Brunswick are daunting. They run the gamut from weak revenues, a shrinking workforce, ageing population, rising health-care spending and increasing dependence and reliance on transfers from the central government in Ottawa. At a recent meeting with the Prime Minister, Mr. Alward walked away (he claims) with a commitment that the Federal Government would not reduce transfers to the province in the next fiscal year.

In cross-province public budget consultations the P.C. government indicated that everything was on the table, but there really isn't much wiggle room left short of raising taxes and selling provincial assets; Crown Corporations and properties. Of those, the New Brunswick Liquor Corporation (N.B. Liquor), with annual profits near $175 - Million, seems the most likely target. The previous government's attempt to sell another Crown, the debt laden N.B. Power, caused such a ruckus that burying the "liquor" headline is perhaps a compelling reason why Mr. Alward's government has scheduled the budget speech on the same day the Federal Minister of Finance is scheduled to deliver the national budget - March 22nd.

Selling liquor to Maritimers is a lucrative proposition; one that doesn't imply rocket-science. So, when N.B. Liquor goes up for sale, given New Brunswick's precarious fiscal situation, Mr. Alward's biggest problem may be to pass on the temptation to sell at a fire sale price. A significant concrete effort to pull the Province of New Brunswick out of its spiral into bankruptcy is potentially a first significant "bump" along the soft ride the Premier has been enjoying so far.

SON OF A PREACHERMAN

Canadians have not enthusiastically embraced Prime Minister Harper's proposal hashed-out with U.S. President Obama for a so-called "Perimeter Security Arrangement" which it seems would see Canada give-up some of its sovereignty, in return for the freer flow of goods between our two countries.

Of course, Mr. Obama's budget proposal to tax Canadians entering the USA which followed literally within hours of the Washington meeting with Harper has not helped the perception north of the border that regardless of its relationship with Canada...What America wants, America gets!

Mr. Harper's Conservatives may have planned to make the Perimeter Security deal a major plank of the expected national general election later this spring. Given the seemingly cool reception back home; it is quite unlikely the proposed arrangement with our American brethren will play a significant role along the campaign trail.

Though still rare; and strange at it may seem, relations have frequently been more cordial through less formal arrangements between Canadian provinces and their bordering U.S. States. Fact is that in recent years an American two-term Governor, Michigan's Jennifer Granholm, was Canadian born (Vancouver, 1959) and at least one current prominent U.S. Congressman from Kentucky, Geoff Davis, is Canadian born (Montreal 1958). And of course one of America's iconic Presidents, Franklin Delano Roosevelt had a very special relationship with New Brunswick's Campobello island, including the Canadian birth of his son, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Junior in 1914.

Reciprocally, (and he may be a first) New Brunswick's Progressive-Conservative Premier, David Alward elected last fall, is American born in Beverly, Massachusetts in 1959, and a graduate of Bryan College of Dayton, Tennessee. The new Premier spent several days late last week reconnecting with many of his compatriots attending the annual meetings of American Governors held in Washington D.C. In fact there he also discussed border security with the Senator from neighbouring Maine, Susan Collins. The prominent tea-Party supported Republican politician recently called for tighter security measures between our two countries claiming that a spike in drug smuggling from New Brunswick is leading to increased addiction to "Meth" in the State of Maine. To his credit, Mr. Alward pointed to her in return the problematic flow of handguns and heroin from Maine into New Brunswick.

Michigan Governor Granholm's Canadian ethnicity surely did not hurt in securing Canada's commitment by the Federal Transport Minister John Baird to lend her bankrupt state the billions of dollars needed to build a new international highway bridge between Windsor, Ontario and Detroit, Michigan. Alas despite the commitment, the decade old project remains stalled largely due to the intransigence of the private owner of the Ambassador Bridge, Detroit billionaire Manny Moroun...seemingly proving once more that moneyed business trumps goodwill: I digress!

As for New Brunswick's Premier David Alward, he will have an historic opportunity in mid-June when he and the provincial capital, Fredericton, host the business to business conference of the Southeastern United-States-Canadian Provinces Alliance. The group of Premiers, Governors, their officials and prominent business leaders was formed in 2007. It's described as a strategic trade and investment focused partnership between six southeastern U.S. States (Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama) and seven Canadian provinces (Newfoundland/Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba.)

The alliance of government and business officials has held previous meetings in Savannah, Georgia; St. John's, Newfoundland and Biloxi, Mississippi. It wants to advance the economic ties between the two eastern North American regions. As a CBC reporter, I covered the inaugural meeting of the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers Association at Sugarbush, Vermont - Though it seems like yesterday, I'm recently reminded that was 37 years ago. - Somewhat like this newer business alliance, it's the framework which, despite occasional tensions, has assisted the political leaders along the Northern Atlantic coast to understand their symbiotic relationship regardless of national differences. It meets next in Halifax in July.

National governments may not always share the same perspective. This time the frequently disadvantaged province of New Brunswick has a distinct advantage of new political leadership born and educated amongst our southern neighbours. Mr. Alward holds a strong hand. Everyone hopes he can play it right.

MR. HARPER GOES TO WASHINGTON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS

God bless us little ones! Prime Minister Harper travels to the centre of the known universe to bargain from an increasingly weakened hand with President Barack Obama over trade issues...



Pundits, commentators, journalists and politicians from the Great White North are all over themselves about Mr. Harper's three (or so) hour long visit to Washington where, but for Canadians, hardly anyone else will notice...certainly not the American media.

Writing in the "Toronto Star" earlier in the week, columnist James Travers notes..."Canadians are delusional if they believe commerce will again flow freely across the border without significant security compromises."

Precisely why President Obama's adversaries have been so vocal over the release just a few days back (On Tuesday) of an American Government Accountability Office (GAO) report which appears to highlight serious lapses of security along vast expanses of the Canada - United States border. Released just three days before Mr. Harper goes to Washington the GAO report feeds the generally held paranoia south of the 49th parallel of the myth that crazies from Canada were responsible for the attacks of 9/11; and may yet be ready to strike once more if given the right opportunity.

As long as our American partners remain edgy, they are going to keep coming-up with new ideas to "thicken-up" their side of the border. The world's largest trading partnership which is worth more than $1-million every two minutes 24/7 is, as Jim Travers notes..."far more important to us than to them." Given the prevailing paranoia since the events of September 2001 the cross-border test of interests has condensed (in Travers' description) into a bumper sticker: "Security trumps trade."

Liberal Senator Colin Kenny speaks with an admittedly partisan bias; but he is not wrong to claim that any demand on the Obama administration to ease restrictions on Canadian goods, services and visitors entering the United-States will fall on deaf ears unless the Americans are somehow convinced that Canada is spending a whole whack more on intelligence, front-line border inspectors and electronic screening.

From Canada's perspective that likely means difficult, perhaps tough, compromises on matters of personal privacy and civil liberties; as well as loosening-up national rights of sovereignty at the same time that our country attempts to preserve its claims over the resources of the arctic and Canada's ownership of the northwest passage. Both of which are also of considerable interest to our American neighbours.

That is why the very best Mr. Harper will achieve over his brief visit with the President is a compromise comprehensive shared review of our borders' security to be carried-out by a mid-level working group over the next 6 months or so. Since Canadians are just about the only ones who care about the issue; in the event an of eventual spring Federal Election at home, Mr. Harper has thus bought time to once more "back-burner" the issue, while he bids to sell his partisan supporters on what may be one more flawed attempt to appease America's pursuit of destiny.

BOOMER FRET

It is maybe the reality of our ageing demographic that causes every small tremor in economic news - Employment, Interest Rates, Manufacturing output (you name it) - to terrorize the stock market. We are the "Boomers;" the nation's largest population cohort and we're fretting whether there will be anything left for life in blissful retirement.

Perhaps sadly...well we should. Though most of the world's great economic thinkers agree that Canada is in damn good financial shape; in at least one respect we're one of the world's basket cases. Canadians are drowning in debt: In 2009 our government debt amounted to 82% of the nation's entire Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared for example to Great Britain (68%) where the national government has just imposed Draconian restraint measures. And even the United-States, the world's economic disaster poster boy, which is just one point above us; 83.2%.

Canada's Federal government debt is as bad as ever, and climbing at the rate $135-Million per day. It peaked at $563-Billion in 1998 before the Liberal Government of Jean Chretien wrestled it back with its own drastic cuts. In the past five years it has now risen back to what the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation claims will be $567-Billion on March 31 - A new record.

That's just the Federal Government debt, add in provincial debt where some economies - New Brunswick, Ontario, Quebec (to name just three) - are their own basket cases, and Canada's total government debt will be well over $ One Trillion on March 31 when the books are closed for the fiscal year.

Lest you think that it is just our elected officials who are doing a bad job at minding the nation's purse strings - They are - But the rest of us are "maxed-out!" Spending by Canadian consumers over the past two years is the most leveraged in history. Canadians hold more than their own $-One Trillion in mortgage debt alone; up about 8% since 2009, and an eye-popping 194% since 1995. It's not just the family credit cards that are maxed-out either. Last year (2010) about 2,000,000 Canadians took out equity loans from the value of their generally mortgaged homes - The average withdrawal was $46,000.

Fueled by historically low mortgage interest rates, it has been Canada's housing market which buffered the country against the economic recession which shook most other parts of the developed world. But the pent-up demand for an average Canadian home which is now priced at $331,000 is rapidly evaporating amongst the record personal, national and provincial debts we have accumulated as a nation. It may be later than our American cousins' or the homes of our ancestors in the United Kingdom and in France; but the party is probably over for us too.

Just this week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded Canada's GDP growth predictions for 2011 to 2.3%. In recessionary times, that ain't bad but it pales against the IMF's world economic predictions of 4.4% growth. At the very height of the recession one Canadian Imperial Bank economist called Canada..."a safe harbour in today's global economic storm." For the most part, witness to the turmoil abroad, Canadians were pretty smug about our country's fiscal position.

If our reasonably safe economy was fueled by an unprecedented housing boom which has now spent itself out; there may be good reason to fret that it was all along an illusionary boom built on a somewhat expensive house of cards.

FELIZ NAVIDAD!

Recent "Wiki-Leaked" cables from the Station Chief of the American Interest Section in Havana, Cuba have been critical of Canada's relationship with the Communist island nation less than 90 miles off the coast of Florida.

In the aftermath of last year's visit to the Cuban capital by Canada's Minister of State for external Affairs Peter Kent, the Station Chief Jonathan Farrar, who is America's highest diplomat in Cuba, told his handlers in Washington that Cuba was being given a "free-pass on its human rights abuses" because of economic motives, the results of which were..."risible: pomp-full dinners and meetings and...a photo-op with one of the Castro brothers."

Cuba is guilty of abusing the rights of enemies of, and dissidents against the regime. Though, lest I digress human-rights abuses are frequently within the eye of the beholder: For instance Amnesty International believes the rights of more than 30 Florida teenagers jailed for life (without parole) for crimes less than murder have been abused...and, some would surely argue that rights have been denied to many detainees held at the notorious Guantanamo prison, ironically located on Cuban soil.

Canada established diplomatic relations with the Castro Government of Cuba while Pierre Trudeau was Prime-Minister. So grateful was the Cuban President for the overture that the reclusive leader travelled to Montreal in the fall of 2000 to attend Trudeau's State Funeral. Given the state of Canadian politics ten years hence; it's doubtful anyone of the same stature will return the favour when Castro expires...I digress once more.

If there are (and were) economic motives behind Canada's accommodating approach towards Cuba, they have paid-off. About half-a-million Canadians vacation on the Caribbean island each year, many at resorts owned by investors and their partners from the "great white north." - We are Cuba's single largest source of tourism. The surprising truth that few Americans seem to know though is that despite the intense rhetoric and a 60 year old embargo against Castro's Government; the United States is now sending the second-most visitors to Cuba than any other country; about 400,000.

President Obama fulfilled an election promise in April 2009 and lifted all Bush era restrictions against Cuban descendants in the USA as well as for some Americans allowed to travel for "sanctioned" activities. Since the Eisenhower and Kennedy Administrations, American Presidents have tread carefully over their relationship with Cuba because of the politically well connected and wealthy community of exiles in south Florida which now numbers about 2-million. After 60 years they won't forgive Castro...but ironically their second and third generations are among the ones agitating the most for open travel to the offshore nation.

Sanctions and embargoes prevent U.S. based commercial airline traffic to Cuba; but President Obama lifted those same sanctions against charter carriers which are now allowed to fly to Havana from Miami, New York and Washington. This weekend...In Miami alone, fifty-five charter flights carrying thousands of Cuban descendants will wing-on over to Havana's Jose Marti International Airport. They (and most especially) their money will be welcomed with opened arms by the Cuban Government which imposes a 25% import duty on all the Christmas presents they'll be bringing long lost relatives. The President of Gulfstream Air Charter of Miami, Tom Cooper, told the Associated Press the load on-board the company's daily 737 flight to Havana is so great that..."for about half of Gulfstream's flights, the company charters a twin-turboprop cargo plane to carry the excess baggage."

Maybe the time has come for Washington to turn away from its inexorable intransigence over Cuba; or at least turn the other cheek in the spirit of the Christmas season. Either way there's good reason to suspect that Fidel Castro; though sick, weak and demented; is laughing all the way to the bank.

GOLD, MYRRH AND PERIMETER SECURITY

Though national polls are at best nebulous; the 40th session of Parliament is adjourned for the holidays. This time without sight of any ill-conceived notion of a third "Prorogation" in as many years.

Not because 2010 was without stumbling blocks and potentially disastrous issues for the Harper minority government. It's just that Canadians have been blessed with such weak and ineffective politicians opposite that the usual couple of days of "stonewalling" in Question Period have been generally sufficient to survive any threats of a ruling party disaster. To wit:

In the aftermath of "Prorogation Part II" a year ago, ostensibly because Mr. Harper wanted to focus on the Government's judicious response to the world's economic crisis: The nation was ridiculed for spending more than a billion dollars on the Toronto G-8 and G-20 Summit meetings. We became engaged in a doubtful and evermore expensive deal to purchase new generation F-35 stealth fighter jets "sans" bidding process. For the first time in 60 years, we lost a bid to seat a Canadian on the Security Council of the United-Nations. We were unceremoniously kicked-out of a secretive Afghan war re-supply airbase located in the United Arab Emirates, while at the same time abandoning a firm commitment to leave Afghanistan in 2011...And the ever widening circle of patronage appointments from the Senate on down continued unabated. To say nothing of the accusations of patronage pay-offs levelled against contractors involved with the multi-million dollar renovations of Ottawa's Parliament Hill edifices; and the fiasco involving the demise of the former Minister for the Status of Women, Helena Guergis; along with her husband, the former Tory Caucus Chair, Rahim Jaffer.

This week's release of the latest Canadian-Press / Harris Decima public opinion poll which pegs the Conservatives (31%) and the Liberals (29%) in a statistical dead-heat of decided voters undoubtedly portends more of the same in the new year. Polls earlier this fall had been somewhat kinder to the Tories, leading some pundits and observers to predict a potential February Federal Budget..."that no opposition party can support" would force an election at just about the same time the right leaning "Sun News" TV channel hits the airwaves. Of course the reality is that none of the three party heads: Mr. Harper; Michael Ignatieff nor Jack Layton can afford any chance on another minority election result in 2011, without major ramifications to their leadership of the respective national parties. Another minority government for Mr. Harper would be his 4th unsuccessful bid to claim electoral majority...and a loss for Mr. Ignatieff would surely spell the end of his leadership aspirations for the "natural governing" party of the last century.

Alas, looming larger perhaps than any potential "election budget" is the widespread speculation there will be no public debate over: "Beyond The Border: A Shared Vision For Perimeter Security And Competitiveness" - the omnibus continental security agreement which Prime Minister Harper and President Barack Obama will announce when the two meet in Washington next month. At this Christmas' eve it seems that the battle for the hearts and minds of Canadians has already been engaged with five former Canadian Ambassadors to the United States; Derek Burney, Raymond Chretien, Michael Kergin, Frank McKenna and Michael Wilson (1999-2009) publicly supporting the beneficial trade values of the deal which hasn't yet been announced. No one doubts the well meaning intentions of these five senior Statesmen. Canada's economy is fully dependant on the $2-Billion per day in trade between our two countries - The world's largest trading relationship - and the ramifications of America's intense paranoia over border security and the threat of terrorism. But; regardless of the content of the secretively negotiated deal between Mr. Harper's Government and the Obama Administration, it would be foolish of us to assume that henceforth the 26 million Canadians who enter the United States each year will have an easier time getting in. In return for assisting our American neighbours build concentric circles of security around the contiguous 48 states, the best we may be able to hope for is that we may be spared an Arizona/Mexico-style perimeter fence along our shared border.