THE TRUMP SLUMP

Statistics from 2017 released last week show the United-States has lost its second place to Spain as the world's most 'visited' country. (France is #1) - Experts blame President Trump's travel ban on some primarily Muslim countries as well as his harsh rhetoric about Hispanics and others for this decline. It's also in part due to the 'Make America Great Again' mantra which has been interpreted by some as code for make America white again...an era when and where the white family patriarch always knew best.

Like so many of us, I grew-up in the years of those popular American television sitcoms, 'Father Knows Best', 'I Love Lucy', 'Leave it to Beaver' and I'd defy anyone to recall when a person of colour, (A Negro as we called them), or an Asian, Hispanic or 'First Nation' American was ever featured, except perhaps as a caricature, though each, as is the case today, then also made-up a substantial percentage of the population of the United-States of America.

For reasons I really do not quite understand 49.6% of eligible voters in the United-States (about 50 million electors) chose to abstain from voting in the November 2016 Presidential election. Be that as it may, the nation that once prided itself as the world's greatest democracy chose a 'Brand' of some dubious background and character as its leader rather than a person of diplomacy and political know-how. 

Most assuredly entrepreneur Donald Trump has set the world on its ear, if not a Twitter, with his silly pronouncements, gross accusations, and blatant untruths.  In the process he's tarnished the country's reputation as the leader of the 'free world,' with little if any noteworthy accomplishments to his administration's credit.

I have no vote in the USA:  If I did, I would hope that unlike so many Americans, I would have chosen to cast my democratic ballot in the fall 'Presidentials' of 2016. Though since that election and as those statistics bear out, I have chosen, along with many others, to vote with my wallet and remain on the Canadian side of the border with the United-States. It's a personal choice, easy to make considering that at the close of markets this weekend the Canadian dollar (The Loonie) was discounted just about 25% of the U.S. dollar....Let alone other expenses such as the cost of travel, lodging and most important medical insurance coverage while outside of Canada. Lest I digress: In December of 2015 my Canadian insurer was billed $21,060 US for the 4 1/2 hours I spent at a Florida hospital with a kidney stone.

I'm prepared to admit, given the frigid winter we endure in this 'Great White North' particularly this year, that my choice to stay-put hasn't been easy. However, In my mind at least it's a choice that defines who I am as a Canadian willing to sacrifice my smallish level of personal comfort rather than enable they who chip away the basic tenets of their democracy.

I acknowledge and accept that others, Canadians like me, see things differently. That for reasons of their own they shop 'cross-border', travel to, and visit frequently for extended periods of time, months really, as Snowbirds spending hard earned discounted Canadian dollars contributing to making America great again. Canadians who seek admission to the United States are for the most part welcomed as visitors, and they become the guests of a foreign country. It's incumbent upon them to behave as respectful visitors. What I do not accept, and I witness it frequently, almost daily, is that they complain and be critical on social media and elsewhere of the politics of their host while on it's soil  - It's impolite, dangerous and akin to biting the hand that's feeding you with your discounted Canadian dollars : If I see and note it - Others too are watching !

BUILDING WALLS AND BRIDGES....MAYBE !

Tensions along the North American borders, the 'de facto' stalled talks involving Mexico, Canada and the United States over the North American Free Trade Accord (NAFTA), and an increasingly, somewhat hostile, and surely dysfunctional American Administration; add these to a grid-locked Congress and Government, and none augur very favourably to support the construction of new international crossings and / or the infrastructures and facilities which they require and demand.

 Meantime, all of a sudden along the International Border between Northern Maine (USA) and the Province of New Brunswick (Canada) it seems that no one noticed, until recently that is, that the 100 year old 1,500 Ft steel-span bridge over the St. John River was falling apart. (Figures, eh ? - S'tie !)

Politicians are like High School students waiting until last minute to start cramming, in this case 'scrambling' for a quick fix - The Edmundston / Madawaska International Bridge is the life-link which joins the local economy. The American owned Twin Rivers Paper Company operates mills in both countries of the community and the busy bridge links the company's Pulp and Cardboard mills in Canada to its Paper and Packaging Labels manufacturing mills in the USA.  Alas...the international bridge's deteriorating span has forced a 5 Tons weight restriction on vehicles crossing since last October, and the bridge is too old to fix. - Wait ! - There's more : Since 9/11 Canadian Federal authorities have spent multi-millions of dollars to build new and crucial border inspection facilities at the bridge and there is absolutely no appetite to relocate them - In fact that has been made crystal clear to all concerned.  The opposite is true on the American side where the border post dates to near the end of World War 2 and needs to be replaced. Trouble is the current bridge approach on the USA side is way too small to accommodate the mandate from Homeland Security.

 

The "locals" have come-up with a 'made at home' proposal to build a new bridge on the Canadian side where the existing border infrastructure exists, and north up river about 1/2 mile where there would be room to build a new USA Border post. Accordingly the new bridge would be diagonal across the river, and about twice as long as the current 100 year old span...and somehow they expect to be granted authority to proceed and build between 2020 and 2022.  Well, wait until the upper levels of governments and echelons of the bureaucracy on both sides of the 'divide' get hold of this nose stretcher ! - May I digress ?

 

 

It's 14 years since the Government of Canada proposed building a new bridge across the Detroit River to link Ontario and Michigan and (essentially)  replace the (now) 87 year old privately owned 'Ambassador Bridge' over which $2-Billion of trade (The most anywhere in the world) crosses the International Border every day.  It's 6 years since, out of sheer frustration and no doubt hoping to score political capital, the Government of Stephen Harper created the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority to manage the (fiction of the)  'Gordie Howe International Bridge' - So far that corporation has spent close to $ 1/2 Billion (Canadian Dollars) and there ain't no bridge ! - President Obama said OK to the bridge if Canada pays for the USA Border Post in Detroit ($250-Million) - We Canadian have also offered an Interest Free loan of $250-Million to Michigan so they can pay their share...The State Legislature said: Umm... No Thanks !

 

Wait ! There's more : American Billionaire Matty Maroun owns the Ambassador Bridge and he's been offering for at least a dozen years to build a new bridge AT HIS OWN EXPENSE - Guess what ? - Very quietly late last summer, Mr. Maroun's company outmanoeuvred the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority and received a permit from the Trudeau Cabinet to plan and build a new bridge next to the 'Ambassador' as long as the Ambassador Bridge is torn-down within 5 years of the new one becoming operational . There's much speculation now on both sides of the border these days that 'Gordie Howe' will not see the light of day.

 

Perhaps the elected officials of my home town should give Mr. Moroun a call - He's in the Detroit Phone Book.

 

CLASH OF TITANS

Prime Minister Harper travels to Washington on Wednesday this week for a "Tete a Tete" with President Obama. It's expected the two will (finally) announce a conclusion to Canada's heralded and much anticipated "perimeter security initiative." Thrown-in for good measure, Obama will call on the IRS to "heal" its operatives who have been dogging Canadian / American (dual) citizens over paying-up penalties on alleged taxes they don't owe.

Harper will save face over the embarrassment of "Perimeter Security" which has now dragged-on for just short of a year, while Obama gets breathing room to launch his Presidential re-election campaign freed of the pesky, whinny Canadians from across his northern border.

Rather than resolving substantive bi-lateral matters, the "Perimeter Security" accord will be front-loaded with "Pilot" projects of every form and nature. For an additional good neighbourly gesture, the IRS will confirm that it's decided to cast its "net" beyond Canada over the recent strict enforcement of long ago forgotten but decades-old "Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts" tax provisions which have threatened to force most holders of dual citizenship living in Canada (and their dependants) into long legal battles and/or personal bankruptcy over penalties and debts they've likely never owed.

Our cross border irritants and tensions seemingly eased once more, despite the winter's holiday line-ups at checkpoints, Canadians will carry-on with our national spending and travel obsession south of the border. And fueled by our relatively strong currency, it seems we may be poised to set new records for travel to the United-States. 2011 third-quarter (July-August-September) numbers just released by Statistics Canada indicate that we took 12.3 Million trips to the United-States during the period. If the trend is maintained, the result could be as many as 50-Million Canadian visits to the USA in 2011, versus about 20-million by USA visitors to Canada.

The State of Florida is a major beneficiary as the main destination for longer-term visits by Canadians. As the "Sunshine State" struggles through a fourth consecutive year of moribund economic prospects, one of the few bright lights on its horizon has been the increase (up 14% in 2010) of visitors from Canada attracted primarily to the ever growing family themed parks and entertainment facilities clustered within 50 (or so) miles of Orlando.  This Monday, Walt Disney would have turned 110 years old. In the mid-1960's through a series of dummy corporations Disney acquired and accumulated almost 28,000 acres of central Florida land. Though he died before its completion, the Disney Corporation is not only (by far) Florida's largest land-holder, but Disney World is the world's most popular vacation destination. The state Titans appear to be on a collision course.

A Tea-Party favourite, the state's Republican Governor Rick Scott has been courting the international casino-resort investment community to take a look at developing major Las Vegas type venues primarily in the Miami Beach and Tampa/St.Petersburg areas. A matter which isn't sitting very well with Disney's traditional squeaky-clean family-friendly vacation-postcard well lubricated and financed image of Florida. Proposed gambling destination resorts are on the drawing board by the Sands Corporation and by the Wynn Corporation of Las Vegas. But it's the acquisition of 30 acres of Biscayne Bay property in Miami for $240-Million by the Genting Corporation of Malaysia which has most upset the folks at Disney, as well as the Florida Chamber of Commerce whose Chairman is (guess who?) an Executive of Walt Disney World.

Come January, Florida faces a budget shortfall of more than $2.5 Billion and an ongoing unemployment rate which is close to 11%. The allure of casino gambling destination resorts, the thousands of low-level jobs they would create and the revenues generated have vast appeal for the government.  The battle of Titans is engaged and the daunting opponent is Disney; (by far) Florida's most powerful corporation. It may be interesting to hear just how loud a Mouse can roar.

....AND THIS IS NOW!

Like most of my generation, I mourn our collective loss of innocence in the decade since the attacks on New York, Washington and Shankville, Pennsyslvania.  I was born and raised along the border, and I've witness far too frequently just how much the security measures, now common place in the post 9/11 world, complicate and divide lives, friends, commercial enterprises, business relationships and even families.

Within weeks of the September 2001 events, the United-States launched a massive security build-up which is still growing pretty much unabated along our shared border where for centuries people had crossed back and forth to shop, work or visit relatives with only a nod from a friendly Customs Officer.

Windsor - Detroit's Ambassador Bridge

Canadians acknowledge and accept the need for enhanced security in the United-States and that "our" lives will never be quite the way they were. But the disruptions and changes remain a source of frequent frustrations on both sides for residents of the cities, towns, villages and communities which dot our shared 8891 kilometer / 5557 miles  border; the longest (once friendliest) on the planet. There are nightmarish stories recounted by emergency responders (fire and ambulance) on mutual-aid calls held-up by overzealous border agents. Small towns struggling with soured economic conditions: Has anyone been to Van Buren, Caribou or Madawaska, Maine recently? Towns like Ogdensburg, Messina and Watertown, New York reduced to advertising their "economic opportunities" in far off large Canadian city newspapers.

Mindful of our long standing and mutually beneficial economic trading relationships with the United-States; successive Canadian governments, provincial and state authorities, and business, manufacturing and trade organizations (often from both sides)  have sought to ease cross-border passage if not frequent tensions. Mired by paranoid patriotic fervor the Bush Administration, First - (and) - Overwhelmed by economic and political turmoil the Obama Administration, Second - have neither expressed nor entertained any genuine interest in effecting change.  Most recently plans for a new crossing over the Detroit River suffered a crippling setback in the Michigan State Senate, the American federal government re-introduced a $5.50 per person levy on Canadians entering the USA, and President Obama's multi-billion dollar pre-election jobs creation scheme hinges on  "Buy America" provisions. The much touted, ballyhooed and delayed "Perimeter Security Framework" has turned into an irritant for Canadians, and an embarrassment for the Harper government.

Whether it's a matter of how Canada gets routinely sideswiped when the U.S. is really targeting someone else (that has been suggested by some observers) or bad manners and discrimination; the cacophony from our noble friend and ally down south has grown somewhat tedious, irksome and alas, wearisome!

The message may be starting to get through: Since North Americans and the world were turned upside down by terrorism a decade ago, instead of working together as neighbours on common strategies to reduce internal problems and re-build damaged economies we hop from crisis to crisis and Band-Aid solutions. Perhaps out of frustration but always with the political correctness required of his office, Canada's Minister of Finance, Jim Flaherty, said recently that U.S. politics can sometimes be "dysfunctional." - Someone else remarked: "Once the presidential race fully takes off in January, "dysfunctional" may look like a compliment.

HAWAII CALLS

Clearly the Prime Minister and his handlers have (somehow) managed to convince the President of the United-States to appear and appease Mr. Harper's long sought photo opportunity over the penning of "Perimeter Security" lite: Booyah! And so what, if that pesky Mexican guy must tag along.

Three Amigos - Not exactly as shown.

High-Fives at the PMO in Ottawa as the White House confirmed late on Friday that President Obama is convening the North American government leaders and NAFTA partners to a summit of the "Three Amigos" in Honolulu on Sunday, November 13. Really just a brief get together after Obama hosts the leaders of APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation, nations over that weekend in his hometown.

Frankly it's just we Canadians who may be sufficiently gullible to be sold a contrived photo-op which the handlers of "your Harper government" will tout as a sure sign of equality of purpose with the large economic power south of our border.

Amidst the mess back home, as Obama struggles to re-rail his failing presidency the last thing he wants is to appear to be facilitating business with foreigners (us!)  - Even less in the same breath explain to Mexican Honcho Calderon that he's opening-up Canada's borders while building a massive fence along Mexico's.  Fact is the "Three Amigos" last met when George Bush was President in 2009 at the Chateau Montebello Resort just south of Ottawa. In this case Obama and I suspect Calderone are happy to schedule the meeting as an afterthought to APEC, late on a Sunday afternoon in a time-zone 7 hours beyond the east-coast, and far enough away as possible from the prying-eyes of the American News networks.

Lest we be fooled: It's just the spin-doctors at Harperland Inc. who will doing their damned best to make sure this moment in history leads the following Monday's news headlines back here in the frozen north. The "Perimeter Security" pact announced with great fanfare the better part of a year ago was to have been finalized last summer. Instead, as Mr. Obama's popularity has tanked in the USA the negotiations have become an irritant and an embarrassment to the Harper Government: A "Buy America" provision has been tacked-on to Obama's jobs creation legislation. A new trade deal with Central America has re-introduced the $5.50 (per person) Customs user fee on Canadian travellers entering the United States, and legislators in Washington are agitating for U.S. ports to be given preferential treatment for goods entering North America from abroad.

Ay, Caramba! If this wasn't such a farce; I'd be expecting Don Ho to break-out into the Hawaiian Wedding Song.

NO TRICKS, NO TREATS!

In a couple of weeks on November 5, Canada's Ambassador to the United-States, Gary Doer, will be inducted into the 'Academy of Distinguished Canadians and Americans' at a black-tie gala dinner being held in Boston. Mr. Doer's largely ceremonial induction is the focus of an event sponsored by the "Maple Leaf Foundation," a non-profit organization which is dedicated to the advancement of understanding between Canada and the United-States.

It's a good time for the Ambassador and members of the foundation to enjoy this largely symbolic Boston ceremony. Though the 2012 face-off is already well engaged, there is  general acceptance in the U.S.A. that the post holiday season marks the official kick-off of the quadrennial Presidential election campaign. Most certainly in the case of next year's run for the Presidency that means essentially ignoring to another time (perhaps, another Administration) Canada's irritants about which (no doubt) both the Ambassador and the Foundation have been focused during the Obama years.

Always close to a deal, but not quite.

In spite of this age of globalism (or perhaps because of it) one can't help but be reminded of the accuracy of the decades old axiom about sharing the bed with an elephant. Except now, it turns-out the pachyderm is suffering for the outbreak of a hell of a pneumonia: Woeful unprecedented economic conditions amidst a political environment so poisonous that it, without exaggeration, has been tearing at the very fabric of the union. Until the fog of this chaos lifts, there will not be any time nor appetite to deal with Canada's issues.
Though from Canada's perspective our irritants may be monumental and frequently essential to the national well being, when viewed from the perspective of the morass which has befallen the nation with whom we share the continent, they are no bother. Much like the size of the iconic elephant, it just depends from which end of the telescope the examination takes place.

Because he virtually has no other choice on the jobs creation front back home, when President Obama okays construction of Trans-Canada's Keystone XL crude oil pipeline from the border south to Texas in a few days, a majority of Canadians will applaud the decision, and Mr. Harper's government will snatch credit for its economic impact in western Canada. But that's likely the last  acknowledgment of anything positive coming from north of the border until well after Americans decide who may be able to lead them out of their economic and political afflictions a year from now in November 2012.

Canada and Canadians it seems are just so nice that for the United-States, we are not a problem. So at the best of times, with or without the prospects of the bitter divisiveness of a presidential electoral face-off, no matter how friendly the relations continue to be, Canadians must wage a permanent campaign to even stay on the agenda. Though it is a substantial cause of concern for much of the world, the spectre of "protectionism" in all of its manifestations will play a significant role as the U.S. presidential campaign unfolds. We may just have to bide our time and hope for the best.

BORDER ACTION PLAN

In this country the Government of Prime Minister Harper has been fixated on affixing the "Action Plan" label to just about everything it's attempted since launching the $50+Billion rescue of the economy in the wake of the 2008 world financial collapse. No surprise then that in the absence of Mr.Harper's grand-vision of an integrated Canada-U.S. "Perimeter Security" deal as announced with fanfare last winter, the government will now take to calling the recently negotiated perimeter security lite - "Canada's Beyond The Border Action Plan."

Doubtless despite intense efforts from Canada's perspective; just about all that's been accomplished since the two sides began meeting in February is the establishment of a "working group" which will attempt to peel away at international layers of bureaucratic red-tape, and re-double efforts to establish better communications on matters relating to Customs levies and procedures, and most important to the United-States: Security issues.

That's a very far cry it seems from the Harper "big-vision" which up until just very recently his Government had hope to implement. And that's also why the Prime Minister's office has failed to convince authorities in Washington to make the President available for any announcement, let alone a signing ceremony of any sort. Just slightly more than a year out of the next Presidential elections in the United States the last thing the Obama Administration wants is to focus his moribund jobs creation record over improving cross-border trading relations with the neighbour north of the 49th parallel.

Fortunately perhaps for Mr. Obama's re-election efforts he's now far more likely to focus his attention on the Mexican neighbour south of the U.S. border in the wake of last week's failed alleged Iranian backed terror plot which Homeland Security claims to have been coordinated down Mexico-way.  On Tuesday last, President Obama himself announced that Iranian Forces had sought to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. by bombing a popular Washington restaurant with the help of Mexican desperadoes. Ay, Caramba! (As is frequently the case in such matters; details are sketchy).

Most Republican Presidential hopefuls in the United-States have seized on the matter to redouble demands that America must secure its southern border by sending more troops to the area, adding predator drone surveillance aircraft,  and building more fencing to separate the U-S border from Mexico. On Saturday Republican candidate and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann signed a a formal pledge committing that as President she will build a double fence across the entire border with Mexico before the end of 2013.

A Raleigh, North-Carolina group called "Americans for Securing the Border"is behind the pledge initiative. It's current focus is on matters related to the problems along the border with Mexico including drug smuggling, illegal immigration, human trafficking and in light of these most recent developments, potential terrorists. But the group's Chair and co-founder, a Washington defense lobbyist named Van D. Hipp, Jr has claimed in the past that the Government of the United-States has been derelict in its duty in defending the "borders".

When the U.S. House of Representatives defeated President Bush's proposed "guest worker programme" for undocumented immigrants in December 2005, the bill the House adopted ordered the Department of Homeland Security to obtain "complete operational control" of borders within 18 months, including studying the feasibility of erecting barriers on the border with Canada.  In follow-up reviews, (most recently in May 2011) the Government Accountability Office (G.A.O.), the U.S. Congressional watchdog, noted that in its opinion just 32 of the nearly 4000 northern border miles had reached an acceptable level of security.

Canada's focus remains on trade with our southern partner which is essential to our own economic security. The focus on border relations in the United-States seems to be from an altogether different perspective. I'm not quite sure we will ever see it with the same optic and intensity.

THE GEORGE BUSH DECADE

Muted commemorations this weekend as the United-States marks the 10th anniversary of the start of hostilities in Afghanistan; a conflict which has cost thousands of lives and more than a trillion dollars. Sadly there is a growing list of experts who fear the country could be sliding back towards the kind of civil war which led to the radical Islamic regime of the Taliban after the Russian pull-out of a similar misadventure signalled the ultimate demise of the Soviet Union two decades ago.

It was all so predictable: In "The Daily Telegraph" of London this weekend Britain's former ambassador to Kabul, Sherard Cowper-Coles, says it's a fantasy to think the war in Afghanistan is being won. He writes that military operations will not cure the underlying disease which has hobbled the region. It's pretty well clear that no one, least of all our American allies, have expectations of remaining for another decade, though that may be the stark reality they face. The 'Telegraph' quotes former United-States Commander in Afghanistan, Retired General Stanley McChrystal, who says that America and its allies are a "little better than" halfway towards their goals in the war. Even the Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose despicably corrupt regime has been propped-up for years by the United-States and the NATO allies (including Canada), says the mission has done..."terribly badly in providing security to the Afghan people and this is the greatest shortcoming of our government and of our international partners." No wonder that in Afghanistan this weekend the morbid anniversary is passing without commemoration by neither the government nor NATO and saddest of all, nor by the 140,000 foreign ground troops who are still stationed on the front lines. In a published report, "Jane's" the internationally respected defence publisher notes clearly that the future of Afghanistan will still "hang in the balance" after the planned departure of allied combat forces by the end of 2014. That's in sharp contrast to President Obama who yesterday told a gathering at the Whitehouse that the United-States is "responsibly ending today's wars from a position of strength." He made the remarks while honouring the military who've made the ultimate sacrifice since President George W. Bush launched the war against the Taliban regime after the Al-Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001.

In Providence, Rhode-Island meantime, researchers at Brown University say at least 33,877 people - foreign and Afghan troops, civilians, insurgents and others have died as a result of the conflict. The American Pentagon puts the cost of its own operations at $323.2 billion exclusive of costs borne by its NATO partners including Canada. Our Department of National Defence claims the cost so far has been $11.3 billion. Others have claimed that it's (in fact) closer to $22 billion. Canada engaged in the Afghan conflict in February 2002. It took on battle operations in August of 2003 with Operation Athena. History will show that it was a simplistic effort by the Liberal Government of Jean Chretien to abate American anger at our decision to stay out of President Bush's "coalition of the willing" in Iraq.

Buoyed by the initial success of the American military in routing the Taliban extremists from government in Afghanistan, the Bush Administration lost interest and quickly changed its focus to Iraq; leaving the hapless NATO allies (including Canada) to "clean-up" the Taliban's mess in Afghanistan. The problem is (and it continues to be): That while America's virtual carpet bombing of Kabul, Kandahar and other strategic targets in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks crumbled the Taliban regime - It scattered its supporters and fighters into the hills bordering Pakistan where in the decade since they've transformed from a rag-tag group of guerrilla fighters into a well disciplined and very patient militia. The irony is: That the United-States surreptitiously financed the Taliban insurgency against the Soviets two decades ago, and it continues to support (to the tune of billions of dollars each year) the Pakistani overlords who now protect them.

IT'S A DEAL, NOT A SOLUTION

My first reference on these pages to the looming American debt crisis dates back to October 2008 in a post related to that month's Canadian Federal Election. (See: "Crucial Debate..." 01/10/08). Despite the congratulatory afterglow of America's Congressional leaders, as the designated curmudgeon on the matter, I note now the nervous, restive skittish and muted response of the North American Stock Markets to Washington's last minute decision to avert an unprecedented international financial crisis.

Perhaps America has somewhat salvaged its crippled credit, but it really has plugged just one hole in an uncontrolled leaky dike of debt.  Had I been posting thirty years ago, I may then have noted the shift to a right-of-centre ideology that began in the United States under President Nixon and continued incrementally during the terms in office of Ronald Reagan through to George W. Bush's 21st Century. That's as far back as this multi-trillion dollar debt hole reaches. Manifest in the current "Tea Party" Republicans, the right-wing ideologists  have reached their extreme, and have evidently evolved into a movement willing to visit economic calamity on the civilized world in the name of minimal taxes and smaller government in the USA.

There is a resounding great disconnect between the politicians of Washington and for that matter those here in Ottawa and the electors they expect will bring them to (or keep them in) elected office. Modern journalism's hysteric incessant need for updates and reams of mostly irrelevant information means that at crucial moments in our times, politicians who play along are reduced to talking "at" each other through a third party (the media); rather than "with" each other directly to solve a crisis. It's become a dangerous sport; one which may affect the well being of an entire country, or as we've witnessed over the past two weeks, the welfare of the world. In June the departing host of "The House" on CBC Radio, Kathleen Petty, weighed-in on these media hysterics: "We keep score, assign penalties, and generally treat politics as a sport. But as sports go, politics might be a great game for participants, but not spectators or listeners."

Americans like the rest of us in the world that surrounds them think that the last couple of weeks have been a disgrace. In fact according to "Time" (on-line) the words most frequently volunteered to pollsters following-up on the theatrics in Washington were "ridiculous," "disgusting," and "stupid".  - Lest I too belabour the sports analogy, there were no winners in the last few weeks in the debt debate.

Though I am not terribly hopeful of the outcome; what remains to be seen is whether political leaders in the United-States and those who watched events unfold from this side of the our common border have learned any lesson from the drama?  There are five provincial elections on the docket in Canada this fall. With more than a third of the country's population living in Ontario its call-out to voters on Thursday, October 6th is crucial to Canada's well being. While in the United-States what's abundantly clear from the debt debate is that President Obama has significant challenges ahead to alter dynamics and perceptions to secure a second term in the Presidential Election in 15 months.

GUNS OF AUTUMN

When Canada's Parliamentary session resumes in September, Mr. Harper's majority Conservatives will eliminate the national long-gun registry despite ongoing opposition from the country's police officers and their superiors.

To be fair former Toronto Police Chief and subsequent Commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police, Julian Fantino, doesn't necessarily agree with his former colleagues in uniform. Perhaps, as some have suggested, Mr. Fantino's conversion has more to do with his 2010 election as a Tory Member of Parliament from Vaughan, Ontario followed by his subsequent recent elevation to Associate Minister of Defence than for any waining support for former comrades in arms...I digress.

Be that as it may, it's south of the border in the United States that the problem is far more acute and a frequent source of frustration and irritation for Canadian authorities forced to deal with the ever increasing flow of illegal handguns (by every means possible) into our country.

That is in keeping with President Barack Obama's stance on gun issues since taking office: Once outspoken earlier in his political career in favour of tougher gun measures, the President has tread carefully since the election of 2008, almost never raising the topic except when asked and offering only tepid support for measures he once embraced; for instance re-enacting a ban on assault weapons.

In fact now six months after a Member of Congress was shot in the head in Arizona the President's administration still hasn't taken any new steps on gun violence even though that's exactly what Mr. Obama called for during a nationwide address in the immediate wake of the shooting of Representative Gabrielle Gifford. A significant measure uppermost to anti gun violence supporters is closing the "gun-show loophole" which allows private sellers to sell firearms at gun shows and elsewhere without conducting background checks. As a result, activist groups say that 40% of gun sales in the United-States are conducted without mandatory background checks. These are frequently the weapons used in heinous crimes in the United-States, or having found there way illegally across the northern border, far too frequently here as well in Canada.

To make a bad situation worse across the U.S., states have been increasingly allowing people who have lost their "firearms rights" because of mental illness to petition to have them restored. More than 20 State Legislatures have passed restoration laws since 2008 when Mr. Obama's Presidential election sparked fears that national measures might follow to tighten or eliminate rights contained in the second amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

The intent of these new state laws is to enable people to regain the right to buy and own firearms if it's determined they are no longer a threat to public safety. The main problem is that low level courts such as those that handle small-claims and traffic infractions have been entrusted with enforcing the legislation. There Judges are (for the most part) giving the petitioners the benefit of the doubt.

With opposition from gun-rights group, increasingly hostile legislation from many state governments, an election year approaching, and attention focused on a faltering economy and few prospects for any action from Congress; the silence from Mr. Obama's administration is likely to draw little attention and even less criticism.

A BULLWINKLE MAGIC HAT TRICK?

The western world has been watching with troubled fascination and concern Greece's slow march into financial collapse. The proud crucible of modern civilization and our democratic institutions begging with extended hand for relief from European neighbours while its people riot in despair along Athens historic avenues.

Greece's twice bailed-out multi-billion dollar national debt is roughly equivalent to $44,000 for each of the small country's 11.5 million inhabitants. Yet each of its economic tremors has rocked investors and banks in the financial capitals of the world for much of the last 12 months.

Ponder a nation with a population of 311.5 million people with a multi-trillion dollar national debt which (in fact) equals $45,000 for each of its inhabitants? Such is the looming brick-wall of the debt crisis facing the United-States of America. The Government of the United-States reached its statutory $14.29-Trillion debt limit on May 16th: But for the grace of God, and only by using a series of accounting techniques and voodoo economics has the Obama Administration been able to continue issuing debt and paying its bills for now just short of two months...and time is running-out rapidly.

Last Friday, on the eve of the Independence Day weekend, the U.S. Treasury advised that it can only maintain the "illusion" for another month: Max! The gloomy Fourth of July forecast confirmed that the Government of the United States of America, the world's most powerful economic engine,"could begin defaulting on its $14.3-Trillion debt on August 2, 2011."

The world's foremost debt rating agency, the financial services giant Standard & Poor's, has already confirmed it will lower the U.S. credit rating from AAA to D - its lowest rating - if political Washington can't find a way out of this morass. Unlike Greece there is no conceivable possible world bailout for a fourteen (plus) trillion dollar bill that the American Congress with the tacit approval of its people has accumulated on the country's credit card.

With now less than a month to go, and shadowed by a looming Presidential re-election bid in 15 months, the Obama Administration needs a compromise just short of a miracle with the Republicans who control Congress...



So far the Republicans have said they will not agree to resolving the country's debt ceiling problems unless a deal is struck first to cut the United-States deficit by $4-Trillion in the next 10 years. Those talks are at an impasse over the President's insistence on increasing taxes.

Economists are plenty alarmed, and in financial and banking circles the talk of a financial Apocalypse is thick. There are clear warnings of credit markets in a state of panic, and of steep interest rates, coupled with Draconian spending cuts and tax increases if the U.S. defaults.

But at least so far, among most Americans the dire warnings appear to be falling on unconvinced ears. Why? It's not unlike the bumper sticker sported on some cars when the world as we know it was supposed to end back on May 21: "After the Rapture, can I have your car?" - Some experts blame "doomsday fatigue." They say in recent times Americans heard that things were going to go haywire with the turn of the millennium (Y2K), and they didn't. They were primed for post September 11 terrorist plots that did not unfold. Time after time they've seen Congress come to the brink, only to pull something out of its hat. In short this could be one critical instance where Washington's past tendencies to cry wolf and stage histrionics on issues of the day has left everyone unprepared for an eventual economic shakedown with worldwide ramifications.

HARK! ISN'T THAT THE PERIMETER SECURITY DEAL SPUTTERING INTO OBLIVION?

It's all out war along the Great Lakes, the testiest battle in decades. And it's about building a bridge to Canada. A conflict of monumental proportions which pits a multi-billionaire, Matty Moroun, against the Governor of the bankrupt State of Michigan, Rick Snyder.

The bridge proposal between Windsor and Detroit is a cornerstone of the Harper Government's plan to develop a joint Canada-U.S. border agreement on "perimeter security." Both the long suffering bridge plan and the security deal which was announced six months ago when Prime Minister Harper and President Obama met, appear stalled and well on a rapid track to the "back burner" of American politics. The Obama Administration is being otherwise distracted with plans for the 2012 Presidential election. And, facilitating or sharing American business with (or as opponents argue transferring jobs to) another country is not on their agenda.

Just a month ago in Washington at hearings of the Congressional "Subcommittee on Immigration, Refugees and Border Security," the Chief of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency, Alan Bersin, told Senators on the panel that the Canadian border is a "more significant threat" to American security than the Mexican border. This was no doubt music to opponents of the Detroit bridge deal. Mr. Bersin explained that: "It's commonly accepted that (the northern border is) the more significant threat, because of the people who can enter Canada and come across our bridges into the United-States."

Back to the war of words in Michigan: The wealthy Manuel (Matty) Moroun owns outright the Ambassador Bridge, a toll span which is the busiest land border crossing in the world. He hasn't taken lightly to Michigan's plan for this second bridge financed with loans from the Government of Canada to compete directly with the estimated $60 to $100 Million/year profits generated by the tolls collected by CenTra Inc., Matty's holding company. As most Canadians who watch American television know, Mr. Moroun's company has been running scathing TV commercials against the project for months. The "Detroit Free Press" daily fingered company goons recently for delivering "fake" eviction notices to the owners whose homes could be in the path of a new bridge. With no money to fight back against the campaign, Michigan Governor Snyder is left muttering pious words: "there's a lot of misinformation out there...This is a great thing for our state...It's about international trade and job creation."....Blah, Blah, Blah!

It's clear that the recession of the last two-and-a-half years down south of the 49th parallel has raised a significant climate of American protectionism which, when coupled with the now decade long paranoia over border security matters, do not bode well for any Canadian initiatives. Whether its a new bridge and/or a perimeter security framework with the ultimate aim of integrating and harmonizing law enforcement measures along the border. - Perhaps critics argue with some significant concessions on Canadian sovereignty: I digress!

Last month at the G-8 Summit in Deauville, France; Prime Minister Harper indicated that the Government's "action plan" (an over used Tory moniker) on border security would be ready this summer. Perhaps: But I'm quite unsure that the Obama Democrats, facing an uphill challenge towards the 2012 Presidential election and its appended tea-party hysteria, will be welcoming another "foreign" trade initiative with reciprocal enthusiasm.

PU - PU PLATTER OF NORTHERN DELIGHTS

Little wonder that Prime Minister Harper's "Perimeter Security" arrangement was D.O.A. from the "git-go." And; forget about lifting the egregious trade and business barriers between Canada and the United-States now that President Barack Obama has launched his re-election campaign for the White House in 2012.

Canada's economy may feel the need for a loving relationship with the massive commercial appetite of our southern neighbour but, at least publicly, it's a one way relationship. We're a lover scorned...alas without any of the appended fury.

In America's growing slide into isolationism, fueled largely by the philosophy of the "Tea Party Patriots" and their supporters, the country's land borders are one more irritant and potential source of all those elements: terrorists, carpetbaggers and aliens who would wish harm upon the United States.

Let it not be said that Canada is not a quintessential partner to the recovery of the American economy, including the country's biggest foreign supplier of oil and gas; and most probably eventually its biggest supplier of fresh water; but in "official" Washington, pending the outcome of the 2012 election; northern border issues, choke-points and business concerns fall on deaf ears...



From the Alberta oil sands, which President Obama described this week: "These tarsands (sic), there are some environmental questions about how destructive they are...we've got to examine all those questions." - To eliminating a $583-Million project to ease woefully insufficient infrastructure at the Blue Water crossing from Sarnia to Port Huron, Michigan - and the President's budget proposal to tax Canadians entering the United-States - The pile of anecdotal evidence seems to point to just one inevitable conclusion: CANADA! Not on the radar screen of crucial re-election issues down south.

Perhaps until the saga of the American 2012 Presidential election plays-out to its conclusion; it would be best for Canada to concentrate on its abundant Cornucopia of northern delights for those American tourists who can still afford to travel "abroad". Ottawa hotels are selling out from a Tourism Commission digital media blitz in the U.S. northeast to promote the "Canada Day" visit of the Royal newlyweds; Prince William and Katherine Middleton. And; Disney Cruise Line has announced that its 2400 passenger ship the "Disney Magic" will make a total of 9 trips (each) to Halifax and Saint John this summer. - There you go!

POLITICS IN WONDERLAND

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is busy re-arranging his Cabinet chairs aboard the HMCS Tory, Canada's ship of state. South of the 49th parallel, American legislators are returning to Congress.

In both nations political party leaders are sharpening their focus on upcoming Federal elections. That, and the notion of fixed election dates is about where the similarities end. To digress: America's fixed election date is enshrined in the Constitution of 1776. In Canada, although the law to fix Federal election dates was adopted by Parliament in the winter of 2006, politicians on both sides of the aisle citing prorogation(s); minority governments; dysfunctional Parliaments; bad economy; good economy; (the list grows) have so far circumvented their own law, and there are every indications to conclude they'll do it again before 2011 ends.

Since Prime Minister Harper's first minority Conservative government was elected in January of 2006, Canada has been in perpetual general election mode. Down south of the border the Obama administration faces the daunting task of rebuilding its battered reputation as the race to the November 2012 Presidential election launches against an emboldened adversarial Congress. The Republicans have welcomed more than a dozen "Tea Party" supporters into the ranks as a result of the recent mid-term face-off. A "Tea Party tidal wave" as described by the movement's darling; former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Over the holiday break, publishers of President George W. Bush's biography "Decision Points" confirmed the tome had sold two-million copies; a favourable comparison with Mrs. Palin's "Faith, Family, Country" which has topped 1.5 million copies. Cynics scoff that it's toss-up which is the better door-stopper. Either way, with the holidays over it's likely what's left in the bookstores will soon find the way to the remainder bins...I digress!

Quite unlike Prime Minister Harper who knows exactly who he is politically and what he wants; President Obama's problems are exacerbated as he seems to still be working through the political equation of who 'he' is? - As perhaps are the American people. His antagonists will attempt to make the most of the dilemma. In the process the Republicans and their Tea Party associates must walk a fine line and not overreach and "scare little kids and pets" - Perhaps defining a situation which on the northern side of the border may explain why Stephen Harper and the Tories have been mired in minority territory for four years.

Critics have described the legacy of President George W. Bush as a stewardship of illusions. The Edith Piaf of Presidential policy as one put it: "He regrets nothing!" - It seems also quite clear to those same analysts that Mrs. Palin is not qualified to be President of the United-States. Many believe that the talk about a potential bid for the high office was just to help "move books" when "Faith, Family, Country" hit the shelves early last fall.

Somewhat like bookends, the frame of the American Presidential race for the next 20 months seems abundantly defined. One could wish only that Canada's seemingly never ending struggle for the "hearts and minds" of the electorate was so crystal clear.

SHARE THE GRIEF

When you share your bed with an elephant what ostensibly matters most is if (when?) it rolls over. Roughly ten days out from the November 2nd mid-term elections in the United-States, Americans appear to be coming to grips with their nation's massive financial shortfall.

America it seems is fed-up with Federal Government spending particularly since there's no apparent end in sight to their nation's staggering employment melt-down now entering a third year. The frustration down south of the 49th parallel appears ready to boil over into a bruising election for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party forces.

At its current monstrous $1.3 Trillion, America's annual deficit has spiralled out of control and threatens to unravel the very foundation of the world's free market economy which the United States has dominated for the last century. With their national debt now about to top $14 Trillion - $40,000 for every man, woman and child in America - And, in a clear indictment of their national spending sickness: Americans will abandon the Democratic Party controlled Congress for a hard right turn to the Republicans. For additional good measure, it is all but certain they will also shave-off several Senate seats away from the Democrats.

More than four years ago, from the very start of his bid for the Presidency, Mr. Obama campaigned on a platform goal of reducing the country's deficit. Subsequently faced with a banking collapse, mortgage meltdowns, and mounting unemployment, on taking office the President's administration felt obligated to keep spending to save the American economy. Mr. Obama recently described that as the most frustrating part of his presidency.

As it is, North Americans live in an age of exaggerated expectations. Mr. Obama more guilty than most perhaps with creating overstated anticipation that he could wrestle down the gargantuan malaise which afflicts his country through the latter half of the century's first decade. During a preceding decade of growth and healthy economic indicators, When Bill Clinton left the Presidency in 2000, the budget surplus was $236-Billion, the highest in U.S. history. But Mr. Clinton only succeeded in setting a national course to successive years of surplus in his second 4 year Presidential mandate. When reduced to a lowest common denominator, Because the American Constitution limits the Presidency to 8 years; it is only when (and if) a President is re-elected to a second mandate that his administration is effectively freed to take hard, difficult, effective, and some times unpopular decisions without the risk of imminent defeat. It seems that lame-duck President's (as they are called) have their advantages.

If he plans on running again in 2012, (no one doubts he will) that is a luxury Mr. Obama does not yet have, and the neo-conservative movement is making it abundantly clear that it will stop him from putting any additional emphasis on fiscal discipline in Washington. As a Professor of Government at American University, James Thurber, put it to the Associated Press on the weekend - "It's going to be very hard (for him) to find common ground" - While Mr. Obama and his Republican opponents share the same goal of reducing the American debt and creating jobs, they disagree fundamentally on their approach. All of which leads many observers to believe that Mr. Obama may bend and reshape his post-election presidency in the hope of improved chances at a second term in 2012.

Of course, unfortunately there is a downside to diluting one's convictions: It aggravates society's loss of much of the nobility that used to be the hallmark of public service and politics.

MORE THAN A CHARM OFFENSIVE

President Obama's appearance as a guest on the morning talk-show "The View" is a desperate move by an embattled U.S. administration to reconnect as that nation's fall mid-term elections approach.

Many of the critical issues facing the American government: the wars (Iraq / Afghanistan); the environment; plus the debt and the economy have reached a point where they transcend political parties. But, partisan political games continue to be played at a fever pitch, though we're clearly well beyond the time when governments in North America can any longer afford to play them.

In high level financial circles expectations are that Mr. Obama's government will back away from shutting-off the stimulus taps in the face of lagging job growth and an alarming retreat in consumer confidence. In the past 60 days, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has dropped just short of 15% to 50.4%. Economists watch those numbers closely because they determine consumer spending which is now edging towards the start of the back-to-school shopping season. A reading above 90% would indicate a solid economy. Then, who better for President Obama to bring his "charm offensive" to than the mothers of school aged children who watch "The View?"

Across North America economic threats are still lurking. Though Canada's healthy banking industry has been credited with our relatively soft landing from the recession of the last couple of years; we still haven't stepped completely away from the material danger of a so-called double-dip recession. The Canadian government will be forced by the next Federal budget to shut-off our own $60-Billion economic stimulus program and account to Canadian voters for putting our spending back into serious deficit territory in a series of ill-conceived tax cuts followed by the subsequent downturn. Though it was ignored for political expediency by all parties; that downturn was looming at the time of the last Canadian Federal election in October 2008. Reigning-in the deficit through a series of unpopular cuts with the electorate is fueling speculation of another Canadian national election early this fall before the "shoe-drops" on these expected tough Government measures. Which brings us back to playing political partisan games.

South of the border just last week, the American Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation chalked-up another Half-Billion dollar hit when it was forced (once again) to seize the assets of seven failing banks. What's even more notable is that so far in the first seven months of 2010, a total of 103 U.S. Banks have failed because they have not been able to recover from their portfolios of bad loans mostly tied to real-estate mortgages. In Florida for example, 81% of all mortgages exceed the current value of the home they secure. (In fact running at an average 138% of value). Wait! There's more: Last year's rate of bank failures down in the United-States was slower than in 2010. Not a proud accomplishment: But, it took until October of 2009 (not July) before the number of bankrupt banks surpassed 100. The FDIC estimates that the cost of bank failures looking ahead from 2010 to 2014 will be more than $60 Billion.

With mid-term Congressional elections in the U.S. looming, and the very real potential of a second Canadian Federal Election in two years; knocking-down the economic turmoil and the subsequent elephant-sized debts and deficits hiding behind the closet doors will require Herculean political will and control. What both countries will need are people and leaders running for office for the purpose that they can "serve" far more than to merely get elected. I sure hope the politicians and we voters are up to the task.

SARAH SMILE!

To digress: The spelling differs, but I hope the Philadelphia blue-eyed soul duo, Hall & Oates, will lend me the title of their 1976 smash hit - Sara Smile.

Just recently in my native province of New Brunswick, the Government of Premier Shawn Graham reversed its decision to sell the provincial utility; NB Power, to the world's largest power generator, Hydro Quebec, because polls showed the Graham Liberals would lose the next election over the issue.

It seems in politics, as in television's ratings battles, popularity contests trump noble objectives and principles. Just this week, environmentalists have been outraged by decisions south of the border.

In order to mitigate the anticipated fall-out in November's Congressional elections from the bitter divisive battle with the country's right-wing elements over health care. President Barack Obama has unleashed a wholesale assault on the oceans. In an unexpected, unanticipated and aggressive declaration on off-shore oil and gas exploration, the American Leader has lifted the country's moratorium on drilling off the east coast of the Atlantic; and he's set in motion measures to support and promote gas and oil exploration in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas off Alaska by 2012. Not surprisingly, Obama's Republican opponents applauded his pronouncement.

Now this: Discovery Communications, which owns Discovery Channel and several other popular American cable and satellite television outlets is - (It seems with some measure of justification)- accused of being inconsistent with its owns principles and objectives by signing the former Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, to a contract to star in one more American reality TV series. It's not just that we all have had already too much of staged television reality; but critics point out that Discovery, known for its spectacular wild-life focused productions, appears here to sacrifice its own principles by signing Palin who served all of 2 1/2 years as Governor. Environmentalist note that during that period her State's government escalated a war on several endangered animal species including wolves and polar bears which, at the very least, appears inconsistent with Discovery's mission. At last check, a petition against the planned production launched by the a Washington based lobby group, "Defenders of Wildlife" claimed to have received close to 150,000 signatures.

Some think that Sarah Palin may be positioning to launch a campaign for the U.S. Presidency in 2012. Lest she flame-out like Norma Desmond in "Sunset Boulevard", she remains coy about firming-up her plans. She knows media interest would quickly evaporate if she abandoned aspirations to her nation's highest office. Anyone remember H. Ross Perot? And, he's a billionaire! - A wink and a smile perhaps; but Mrs. Palin is obviously not quite ready for her close-up.